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Official Long Range Thread 6.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:46 am

syosnow94 wrote:Anyone surprised at the "changes" in the models these past 14 hours?

Can you finally give it up? Please. Models change. If everything was clear cut it would be boring.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:01 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:sroc and Frank, I can't ask for a much better explanation than that at this juncture, my question was more will in a nutshell that huge inverted trough help our chances of a Godzilla?  So the 12z GFS was good?  Still only 6 with ratios, must be little qpf, all we need is a small uptick in qpf and we are golden, gonna be a "B" word, no not the city (forget about them we do not live there) if the pressure gradiant is as tight as shown too, with the snow so dry.  sroc do you see the amplification staying the same? I realize the evolution will change but run after run on all 3 models shows a monstrous storm forming, just how close and where the precip sets up will be key like u said, if its a nowcast thnk dang, gonna be a long week lol.  Looking forward to a little touchup on Thurs.

Unfort we need a lot more than just an uptick in QPF.  What has to happen for that uptick seems to be trending away.  Skins the Thursday storm seems to be trending faster and dryer for us which is a result of the progressive pattern.  It explodes but too far to the N and E to do any major damage.  I know Frank mentioned some blocking over Scandanavia and a weak to neutral east based NAO, but IMO that is a bit too far away and east to keep these systems close enough to the coast...at least not as is currently modled/trending.  As others said here the flow just off our coast is just too progressive.  Not saying it isn't going to trend back, but the pattern screams https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucqo5aqip1w if you are looking for Godzilla esp for western zones.  However, Inverted trough is def a wild card as are the high ratios, and as I stated earlier there is still a lot of time to see how it goes.  As far as the cold Jman toughen up buttercup...lol (Im busting your chops of course).  The mid west and the northern plains deal with these types of conditions every winter.  It will be dangerous no doubt but just like the rest of it life goes on.


Last edited by sroc4 on Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:04 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:03 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Anyone surprised at the "changes" in the models these past 14 hours?

Are you?

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:SNJ and SPA get walloped with the inverted trough. Look at that cold. Crazy!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 37 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f117

Guess I was right, just posted a few seconds before ya, I hope that can take over whole area, I think there is a lot of potential with this storm, it won't take much change in qpf as I said. Frank when was the last time we saw the potential of rations that high? Math you got the stats on that?
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:12 pm

Canadian has the inverted trough axis SE to NW through Eastern half of LI up through the HV.  This means not a whole lot for now except to say that once again this will be a major wild card (where it sets up) and can produce Godzilla "Potential" totals because of ratios(remember 20:1 ratios means 0.5"QPF=10" snow).  Keep in mind this might not even happen either.  As Thursdays system moves out the inverted trough signature may trend away on the models.  Its the nature of the winter.  Take it in stride.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 37 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 37 Cmc_to10" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:15 pm

Lucky southern jersey, sroc I hope you are wrong on the lesser qpf, and yes I understand the other issues that come into play I just meant we do not need 1-2 inqpf to see a lot of snow. I am not going to bank on anything now, for now as it seems there is still some possibility on the table and storms change (syo that's for you) for better or worse and there ain't a thing we can do about it. I wish there was trust me lol, sroc yeah its ok, just thinking about the baby and the poor heating in our apartment, and drafts that blow in like the windows are open.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:18 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Canadian has the inverted trough axis SE to NW through Eastern half of LI up through the HV.  This means not a whole lot for now except to say that once again this will be a major wild card (where it sets up) and can produce Godzilla "Potential" totals because of ratios(remember 20:1 ratios means 0.5"QPF=10" snow).  Keep in mind this might not even happen either.  As Thursdays system moves out the inverted trough signature may trend away on the models.  Its the nature of the winter.  Take it in stride.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 37 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 37 Cmc_to10" />

Well it is nice to see that kind of qpf on the Canadian, at least we have one model so far, with those higher ratios with that amount it would be no problem to see a decent snow.  but its one run, and the cmc, I do not like it all that much third to GFS and Euro. That would be insane verbatim for eastern LI.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:21 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Lucky southern jersey, sroc I hope you are wrong on the lesser qpf, and yes I understand the other issues that come into play I just meant we do not need 1-2 inqpf to see a lot of snow.  I am not going to bank on anything now, for now as it seems there is still some possibility on the table and storms change (syo that's for you) for better or worse and there ain't a thing we can do about it.  I wish there was trust me lol, sroc yeah its ok, just thinking about the baby and the poor heating in our apartment, and drafts that blow in like the windows are open.

I edited my post above Jman. Check out the image of the CMC. Our area does better on the CMC whereas S NJ does better on the GFS. All due to the axis of the Inverted trough. My point is this far out this is all going to change as we go along. Tomorrow there may be no IT axis at all. No sense in saying SNJ is lucky because they have nothing as of now.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:24 pm

IMHO the inverted trough along with very high ratio's are going to be the main attractions for our area. I think the primary LP will be too far off shore for most of us. For now East of NYC still is in the game for CCB type set up, but unlikely at this time(subject to change). There is no doubt the H5 looks very impressive for this weekend though.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by crippo84 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:29 pm

@sroc4 wrote:IMHO the inverted trough along with very high ratio's are going to be the main attractions for our area.  I think the primary LP will be too far off shore for most of us.  For now East of NYC still is in the game for CCB type set up, but unlikely at this time(subject to change).  There is no doubt the H5 looks very impressive for this weekend though.  
What does CCB stand for?  I've seen that used here numerous times when dealing with coastals.  I googled it...came up with Cold Conveyor Belt.  Is this what the abbreviation is for?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:30 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Canadian has the inverted trough axis SE to NW through Eastern half of LI up through the HV.  This means not a whole lot for now except to say that once again this will be a major wild card (where it sets up) and can produce Godzilla "Potential" totals because of ratios(remember 20:1 ratios means 0.5"QPF=10" snow).  Keep in mind this might not even happen either.  As Thursdays system moves out the inverted trough signature may trend away on the models.  Its the nature of the winter.  Take it in stride.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 37 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 37 Cmc_to10" />

sroc wouldn't that qpf map be a fantasy map due to ratios 30:1+ lol, its not within 96 hrs, lol I did not see what u changed, Euro should be interesting, and yess its too early.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Anyone surprised at the "changes" in the models these past 14 hours?

Can you finally give it up? Please. Models change. If everything was clear cut it would be boring.

totally agree frank, regardless of what happens sat/sun (do not care much about thurs, whatever happens a nice little add on will be fine with me) you do a great job and its fun watching the models and the potential even if it does not happen. Not staying up all hours though until we see something significant in the sun storm, IF we do.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:43 pm

I was just lurking at American WX. Larry Cosgrove just said that the upper level GFS ensembles were way west for the weekend storm. Would be a major snowstorm from Baltimore to Boston taken verbatim of course.
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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:49 pm

Ok, I am going to put a dent in everyone's crazy ratio bullshi*t. lol. Let's start wit this. Snow ratio's are not solely based on temperatures. If that was the case I would not have been able see out the window of my dorm room this week and I live on the 3rd floor lmao. When looking at snow ratios, you need to look at the conditions within the Dendrite Growth Zone or (DGZ). As we know, extreme cold air brings tons of dry air. So at 10-15* we think we are getting 30-40:1 ratios right? NO!. In fact, ratios are likely 15:1-20:1 due to dry air invading the DGZ, cutting down on snow ratios. Often times, you need the event to be underway in order to evaluate the condition of the DGZ and cannot forecast this days out based on temps. For example, last weekend I snowed here in NVT at -2" with .35in of qpf. I got 8". Why? Ratios were only about 25:1. Looking at a snow ratio chart based on temps, I should have had 50-60:1 ratios. That did not happen due to dry air invading the DGZ, so that is why you can't base ratios on just temps. Ok there is your short mini-lesson on snow ratios and how they are much more complicated to forecast than you think.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:54 pm

@aiannone wrote:Ok, I am going to put a dent in everyone's crazy ratio bullshi*t. lol. Let's start wit this. Snow ratio's are not solely based on temperatures. If that was the case I would not have been able see out the window of my dorm room this week and I live on the 3rd floor lmao. When looking at snow ratios, you need to look at the conditions within the Dendrite Growth Zone or (DGZ). As we know, extreme cold air brings tons of dry air. So at 10-15* we think we are getting 30-40:1 ratios right? NO!. In fact, ratios are likely 15:1-20:1 due to dry air invading the DGZ, cutting down on snow ratios. Often times, you need the event to be underway in order to evaluate the condition of the DGZ and cannot forecast this days out based on temps. For example, last weekend I snowed here in NVT at -2" with .35in of qpf. I got 8". Why? Ratios were only about 25:1. Looking at a snow ratio chart based on temps, I should have had 50-60:1 ratios. That did not happen due to dry air invading the DGZ, so that is why you can't base ratios on just temps. Ok there is your short mini-lesson on snow ratios and how they are much more complicated to forecast than you think.

Impressive analysis and very true. Great point Alex. Jman that map is not a fantasy map since it is a QPF map, and not a snowfall map. Plus I was making a point about the inverted trough axis compared to the GFS.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:54 pm

@aiannone wrote:Ok, I am going to put a dent in everyone's crazy ratio bullshi*t. lol. Let's start wit this. Snow ratio's are not solely based on temperatures. If that was the case I would not have been able see out the window of my dorm room this week and I live on the 3rd floor lmao. When looking at snow ratios, you need to look at the conditions within the Dendrite Growth Zone or (DGZ). As we know, extreme cold air brings tons of dry air. So at 10-15* we think we are getting 30-40:1 ratios right? NO!. In fact, ratios are likely 15:1-20:1 due to dry air invading the DGZ, cutting down on snow ratios. Often times, you need the event to be underway in order to evaluate the condition of the DGZ and cannot forecast this days out based on temps. For example, last weekend I snowed here in NVT at -2" with .35in of qpf. I got 8". Why? Ratios were only about 25:1. Looking at a snow ratio chart based on temps, I should have had 50-60:1 ratios. That did not happen due to dry air invading the DGZ, so that is why you can't base ratios on just temps. Ok there is your short mini-lesson on snow ratios and how they are much more complicated to forecast than you think.

Interesting Alex, but what Frank said makes sense too, but I believe he said models showed that. So that's verbatim.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:55 pm

LOL sroc was joking but frank said rain or snow in the rules I believe, just joshing ya, I am scared with map posting now do not want to make a honest mistake and get banned.
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Post by crippo84 Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:57 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Ok, I am going to put a dent in everyone's crazy ratio bullshi*t. lol. Let's start wit this. Snow ratio's are not solely based on temperatures. If that was the case I would not have been able see out the window of my dorm room this week and I live on the 3rd floor lmao. When looking at snow ratios, you need to look at the conditions within the Dendrite Growth Zone or (DGZ). As we know, extreme cold air brings tons of dry air. So at 10-15* we think we are getting 30-40:1 ratios right? NO!. In fact, ratios are likely 15:1-20:1 due to dry air invading the DGZ, cutting down on snow ratios. Often times, you need the event to be underway in order to evaluate the condition of the DGZ and cannot forecast this days out based on temps. For example, last weekend I snowed here in NVT at -2" with .35in of qpf. I got 8". Why? Ratios were only about 25:1. Looking at a snow ratio chart based on temps, I should have had 50-60:1 ratios. That did not happen due to dry air invading the DGZ, so that is why you can't base ratios on just temps. Ok there is your short mini-lesson on snow ratios and how they are much more complicated to forecast than you think.

Impressive analysis and very true.  Great point Alex.  Jman that map is not a fantasy map since it is a QPF map, and not a snowfall map.  Plus I was making a point about the inverted trough axis compared to the GFS.  
Very informative.  Makes plenty of sense.  Thanks for this.

Anyone wanna help me with the meaning of CCB?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:01 pm

crippo I believe they are bands of heavier snow and that your terminology was correct, but I could be wrong.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:03 pm

@crippo84 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Ok, I am going to put a dent in everyone's crazy ratio bullshi*t. lol. Let's start wit this. Snow ratio's are not solely based on temperatures. If that was the case I would not have been able see out the window of my dorm room this week and I live on the 3rd floor lmao. When looking at snow ratios, you need to look at the conditions within the Dendrite Growth Zone or (DGZ). As we know, extreme cold air brings tons of dry air. So at 10-15* we think we are getting 30-40:1 ratios right? NO!. In fact, ratios are likely 15:1-20:1 due to dry air invading the DGZ, cutting down on snow ratios. Often times, you need the event to be underway in order to evaluate the condition of the DGZ and cannot forecast this days out based on temps. For example, last weekend I snowed here in NVT at -2" with .35in of qpf. I got 8". Why? Ratios were only about 25:1. Looking at a snow ratio chart based on temps, I should have had 50-60:1 ratios. That did not happen due to dry air invading the DGZ, so that is why you can't base ratios on just temps. Ok there is your short mini-lesson on snow ratios and how they are much more complicated to forecast than you think.

Impressive analysis and very true.  Great point Alex.  Jman that map is not a fantasy map since it is a QPF map, and not a snowfall map.  Plus I was making a point about the inverted trough axis compared to the GFS.  
Very informative.  Makes plenty of sense.  Thanks for this.

Anyone wanna help me with the meaning of CCB?

You had it correct crippo. CCB is cold air conveyer belt. Ill find a quick map to illustrate

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:14 pm

Crippo I will post the answer to your question in the Wx banter thread

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:24 pm

Euro 12z is a swing & glancing blow for the weekend, 2-4" area wide
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:28 pm

soul sing that's without ratios I believe, what alex said is true but I am trusting in Frank. And yeah still ever so close but took a east tick, tons of time to watch this.
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Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:30 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Euro 12z is a swing & glancing blow for the weekend, 2-4" area wide

Yeah that's 10:1 ratios per wxbell snow map, so it could be quite a bit more, we will see long ways to go.
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Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 37 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

Post by SoulSingMG Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:33 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Euro 12z is a swing & glancing blow for the weekend, 2-4" area wide

Yeah that's 10:1 ratios per wxbell snow map, so it could be quite a bit more, we will see long ways to go.

If you expect me to rely on ratios for hope, then I'll have truly hit weenie rock bottom. ;-)
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