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Official Long Range Thread 6.0

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Post by Guest Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:40 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Anyone surprised at the "changes" in the models these past 14 hours?

Can you finally give it up? Please. Models change. If everything was clear cut it would be boring.

totally agree frank, regardless of what happens sat/sun (do not care much about thurs, whatever happens a nice little add on will be fine with me) you do a great job and its fun watching the models and the potential even if it does not happen.  Not staying up all hours though until we see something significant in the sun storm, IF we do.

Last night amidst all the excitement over the possibility of Thursday and Sat/Sunday I said I would be more than happy with two 2 to 4" events. Then this morning when the models don't look as promising as they did last night I asked if anyone on here was surprised based on Climatology and the pattern these past few weeks, and again people get all sensitive and get their panties in a bunch. It's weather. Chill out! Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes I know models change. That's my point. I even said that I was happy because so far I've exceeded my seasonal average. Why all the hyper-sensitivity on here? Shocked Shocked

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:41 pm

we shall see, but no way that cold its only 10:1.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:46 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Anyone surprised at the "changes" in the models these past 14 hours?

Can you finally give it up? Please. Models change. If everything was clear cut it would be boring.

totally agree frank, regardless of what happens sat/sun (do not care much about thurs, whatever happens a nice little add on will be fine with me) you do a great job and its fun watching the models and the potential even if it does not happen.  Not staying up all hours though until we see something significant in the sun storm, IF we do.

Last night amidst all the excitement over the possibility of Thursday and Sat/Sunday I said I would be more than happy with two 2 to 4" events.  Then this morning when the models don't look as promising as they did last night I asked if anyone on here was surprised based on Climatology and the pattern these past few weeks, and again people get all sensitive and get their panties in a bunch.  It's weather.  Chill out! Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes   I know models change.  That's my point.  I even said that I was happy because so far I've exceeded my seasonal average.  Why all the hyper-sensitivity on here? Shocked Shocked

This is banter..please take it there

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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:47 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:we shall see, but no way that cold its only 10:1.

It certainly won't be, but 20:1 to maybe 25:1 looks more likely. Not a lot of moisture involved and 30-40:1 are extremely uncommon in this area.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:59 pm

Steve D:

"I am looking at the data and especially the 500 mb for Saturday night and I am uneasy. I suspect someone from CNJ to Boston will be hit hard."
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 2:06 pm

Alex's analysis is 100% correct and something I myself never considered (probably because I don't have the proper education in the specifics). Snow growth, which is a common feature found on soundings I believe, plays a role in snow ratios. That said, I can not confirm whether ratios this weekend are 20:1 or 30:1 yet. Intensity of the precip also matters, so we'll have to wait and see.

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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 10, 2015 2:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Alex's analysis is 100% correct and something I myself never considered (probably because I don't have the proper education in the specifics). Snow growth, which is a common feature found on soundings I believe, plays a role in snow ratios. That said, I can not confirm whether ratios this weekend are 20:1 or 30:1 yet. Intensity of the precip also matters, so we'll have to wait and see.

Absolutely correct Frank. The ratios are determined by soundings. Here is my AFD from NWS Burlington, Vt regarding Thursday. We will be snowing in the teens dropping into the single digits, yet ratios aren't crazy because the DGZ is not entirely optimal, but not poor, ratios are normal and not very high.

"GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...SLR/S AROUND 15:1 WOULD YIELD 2-5" WITH THIS
SYSTEM OF GENERALLY LOW DENSITY SNOWFALL."
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 2:32 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO really likes the inverted trough storm on Sunday.

What we know

1. Thursday February 12th: Another mid-level trough is going to try and close off over the eastern U.S. The storm system today is going to act as a block which gets the Thursday system to amplify along the coast. Question is: how close to the coast will it get?

2. Sunday February 15th: These storm systems that keep blowing up off the coast are tracking toward the NAO region and retrograding back west. The "traffic jam" this is causing in our jet is why we're seeing these systems get as close as they are to the coast (and why the trough's are going negative, too). This time frame looks to favor NYC and points south.

3. February 18th-20th: Something is brewing in this time frame and I have liked the 18th-24th for awhile now. The extreme cold will no longer be over us, but there should still be enough blocking in central/eastern Canada to prevent storms from doing a full longitude cut. They may cut, but it will lead to a transfer of energy off the coast. Look for either a Miller A or B storm in this time frame.  

Here was my post from yesterday. We know the answer to #1 is the trough will not get so close to the coast. Just enough to bring a light accumulation to the area. LI and SNE remain in a favorable spot for at least more than 3 inches of snow. We'll keep an eye on it.

For #2 all we know at this point is an inverted trough looks likely to develop off the coast due to H5 closing off. Where it sets up remains to be seen.

Lastly, #3 is still a time period I favor most over the couple of threats we are seeing this week. I think the storm signal around the 18th-19th is legit.

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Post by Guest Tue Feb 10, 2015 2:36 pm

Last week during the slop storm where areas north got near a foot, a band came through LI dumping 5 inches on me in 2.5 hours. It was extremely fluffy dry snow and the temperature was not super cold.

My my point is the rate of precipitation ABSOLUTELY affects the ratios!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 3:06 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Last week during the slop storm where areas north got near a foot, a band came through LI dumping 5 inches on me in 2.5 hours.  It was extremely fluffy dry snow and the temperature was not super cold.

My my point is the rate of precipitation ABSOLUTELY affects the ratios!!

Yup

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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 10, 2015 3:16 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Last week during the slop storm where areas north got near a foot, a band came through LI dumping 5 inches on me in 2.5 hours.  It was extremely fluffy dry snow and the temperature was not super cold.

My my point is the rate of precipitation ABSOLUTELY affects the ratios!!

Yup

Yupp, flake size also affects ratios. Tons of factors. It's a very difficult process to forecast.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 10, 2015 3:55 pm

Alex excellent explanation and discussion here on snow ratios and for me you learn something new each and every day. I am hoping that the Miller A type storm we are seeing on the Euro for next week pans out. I am 5 inches off my seasonal average for the winter right now so any and all would be menial events to some are good for me.
gfs and euro have many potential storms on the op for the next 10 days just need a few mechanisms to fall into place .

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:08 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Steve D:

"I am looking at the data and especially the 500 mb for Saturday night and I am uneasy. I suspect someone from CNJ to Boston will be hit hard."

Without reading any more I suspect this is in reference to the Inverted trough signature.

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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:56 pm

Upton likes the weekend potential.
THE SECOND OPPORTUNITY WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT INTENSIFIES AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WE COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW RATIOS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA THAN THE ONE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. YEAH!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 5:13 pm

@aiannone wrote:Upton likes the weekend potential.
THE SECOND OPPORTUNITY WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT INTENSIFIES AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WE COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW RATIOS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA THAN THE ONE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. YEAH!!!

Well upton has 1-2 for me right now on their preliminary map for thursday so whats more substantial? I am sure they do not know at this point in time. LOL
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:42 pm

The trends have been both good and bad for the weekend system. The good trend is the lead wave is getting weaker each run so heights are higher along the coast. The negative trend is the western ridge. It's collapsing before the storm materializes over the thr east coast. This doesn't allow the trough to dig as much. We'll have to see how this plays out. No blocking either, so we really need that western ridge.

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:54 pm

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY AND ONCE AGAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS
OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A QUIET PERIOD IS ON TAP AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A CLIPPER
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
UNDER A NLY FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC...TO AROUND 20 DOWN AT COAST. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE APPROACHING GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE...WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TOWARD EVENING.

ANOTHER DRY...COLD DAY WITH READINGS NOT REACHING THE FREEZING
MARK.

WED NIGHT THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV MOS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW PACK. PREFERENCE WAS TO
USE A BLEND BASED ON KNOWN BIASES. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR CT...AND 15 TO 20 AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AND PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIODIC WAVES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A VERY COLD
AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH OVER THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DURING THIS
TIME...EVEN THE WARMER AREAS IN AND AROUND NEW YORK CITY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE CITY...AND
LIKELY DROP TO AT OR BELOW ZERO OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. THIS...
COMBINED WITH PREDOMINANTLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS...WITH
WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. WE WILL NOT START TO MODERATE
UNTIL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS START TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

THERE WILL BE THREE CHANCES FOR SNOW DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST
WILL BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. THE
LOW QUICKLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DOES NOT CUTOFF...SO THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIP OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECT 1-2
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND 2-4 EAST WHERE THEY COULD REMAIN
ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD A BIT LONGER.

THE SECOND OPPORTUNITY WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT INTENSIFIES AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. WE COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW RATIOS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA THAN THE ONE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE FINAL OPPORTUNITY WILL BE AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
NEXT TUESDAY. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND...BUT WE START OUT SO
COLD THIS WEEKEND THAT IT WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT THE
ONSET.

&&

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:59 pm

Saturday is still worthy of watching. But I'm thinking next Tuesday into Wednesday is possibly the more significant threat. Unfortunately I could see it being another case where we have rain/snow line issues around here -- even after the brutal cold this weekend. Maybe a repeat of the Feb. 1-2 scenario which also followed a cold weekend.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 9:06 pm

@billg315 wrote:Saturday is still worthy of watching. But I'm thinking next Tuesday into Wednesday is possibly the more significant threat. Unfortunately I could see it being another case where we have rain/snow line issues around here -- even after the brutal cold this weekend. Maybe a repeat of the Feb. 1-2 scenario which also followed a cold weekend.

Yea that's possible. No HP or 50/50 to the north.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 10:51 pm

Rayno seems to feel that sun is a threat including the area.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/bitter-cold-weekend-snow-to-blast-northeast/3901417444001
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:04 pm

On this run, the 00z GFS has the inverted trough over LI into southern NY

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 38 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f102

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 38 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f105

988mb low east of the BM

Impressive storm

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:05 pm

Where is the dotted line?

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:10 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Where is the dotted line?

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 38 A_VVv5

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:12 pm

Madonne, if only there was blocking. Oh well, that's why Godzillas are special when they do occur. Goes to show how many pieces we need aligned.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:15 pm

Are we looking at positive trends here? Is it still on the table even without the blocking? You said that the thurs storm will not promote a transient block right? Lets get that thing up here Frank!
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