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Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm

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Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm Empty Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:52 am

The blog tomorrow will go over the upper air pattern and how this storm will form.

00z gfs tonight

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f96

There is impressive upper air energy involved with this system that will try to allow it to blow up off the coast. I'm still thinking minor event as of now, 1-3 inches, but the potential exists for 4-5 inch amounts if not more. But that will depend on how much digging we'll see from the northern energy. I'll analyze tomorrow.

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:57 am

copied my post from lr thread.wens clipper has a lot of potential. good to see it slow down. very good chance to turn the corner and give snow from dc to boston.
Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm Gfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht
Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm Gfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht
look at that ridge in the west and how it builds in just 24 hours and plenty of sw energy digging. looks great!
plus sundays storm acts as a 50/50 block as sroc would say GIGGEDY
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:04 am

My concern with the clipper is tomorrow's storm blows up too much and is slow to get out of the picture, forcing the clipper south of us. Euro coming in now

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:15 am

at 72 hours tonights euro is weaker with s/w energy and ridge in west is a little flatter

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm F96
0z 17th
Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm F72
0z 18th
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:17 am

The euro really digs the northern stream energy. So much so that DC gets a moderate snowstorm and we're left with flurries. Obviously this won't be the end result. We need to see the energy consolidate more so it can come north.

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:23 am

tonights trends have made a good jump south which gives us a chance a mod snowfall or if this trend continues maybe no snow at all. att I would say a 60% chance of seeing at least a minor acc. (1-3).
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:26 am

Yeah it certainly does go WAY south, but I am sure we see it come north, it it does at the intensity the Euro has it we could see 4-5+ like Frank said, I am very interested in this event myself its coming towards a nice outcome hopefully.
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:32 am

I hear gefs are further north. any truth to that?
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:03 am

So this thing has def trended stronger with a more expansive precip field as it hits the coast when looking at th Euro, CMC, and Euro Ens, but it has also trended south a touch bringing the the core of the precip through the DC Baltimore area with points North of central NJ barely seeing a flake.   The GFS as is par for course still seems to show up late to the party.  Its track is furthest north but its weak with little to now QPF (wrong IMO) and actually looks like some change over to rain along the immediate coast.  This is actually not a bad thing as of today.  Take a look at where the energy that will be this clipper is as of the Euro's 00z run.  Still way off shore.  Like I said yesterday I wont buy anything as a final soln until Sun/Mon 00'z runs at the earliest.  
Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm <a href=Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm Ecmwf_14" />

The image below is the 00z Euro ens mean with its individual LP placement.
Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm <a href=Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm Eps_sl11" />  
The black line is last nights track.  The blue line is where I would like to see the track to give some of us a chance at a solid 3-6" event.  Thats only a shift of about 100-125miles to the north.  With our energy still off shore in the Pac the blue line is entirely possible.  A swing and a miss south and OTS is entirely possible as well, but "I think" it comes back north.  How much well we shall see.  The energy will be coming onshore today and tonight so 12z today, and more importantly tonight's 00'z and 12'z tomorrow will be telling.  

GO PACK GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:58 am

So with this clipper what needs to bring it farther north a more tilted trough or deeper one?
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:33 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:So with this clipper what needs to bring it farther north a more tilted trough or deeper one?

A tilted trough towards neutral or neg earlier.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:34 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:So with this clipper what needs to bring it farther north a more tilted trough or deeper one?

A tilted trough towards neutral or neg earlier.  

Ironically the digging might do this.

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:14 am

fwiw 12z nam gives us an inch of snow with weak system that looks to redevelop to late.
Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm Namconus_asnow_us_29
Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm Nam_namer_081_10m_wnd_precip
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:25 am

This winter I'm sure that's what will happen. Last winter that thing would blow up like a helium balloon in a candy store and dump 6-12 inches of snow from central jersey to the HV. This year I'll be surprised to see a flake.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:58 am

GFS develops a weak low offshore. Better organized than last run but not there yet. Light snow for everyone but the surface is pretty warm for everyone.NYC just gets flurries while a little more precip for the mid atlantic.
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:40 am

@Snow88 wrote:GFS develops a weak low offshore. Better organized than last run but not there yet. Light snow for everyone but the surface is pretty warm for everyone.NYC just gets flurries while a little more precip for the mid atlantic.

Kill me now!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:07 pm

CMC has nothing, a big storm forms but well out over the ocean, this just stinks so much.
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:05 pm

pretty large spread on the ensembles for 3 and a half days out...
Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm F96
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:12 pm

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

Euro is too far south

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:31 pm

So goes our winter so far amazing. Losing confidence in this as per the h5 set up not the op so much. Messy set up not enough space between this storm and the clipper and north stream pops a low too far off coast for anything meaningful now but hopefully it will change.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:35 pm

@amugs wrote:So goes our winter so far amazing. Losing confidence in this as per the h5 set up not the op so much. Messy set up not enough space between this storm and the clipper and north stream pops a low too far off coast for anything meaningful  now but hopefully it will change.

Losing confidence as well but euro looked better than last night. Let's give it until tomorrow

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Post by Quietace Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:42 pm

Cape May special on the Euro...About 5 inches

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:44 pm

[quote="Quietace"]Cape May special on the Euro...About 5 inches[/quot

Can u say March 2014 here? Or 1978 same happened back then and we were very cold and dry

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:50 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Quietace wrote:Cape May special on the Euro...About 5 inches[/quot

Can u say March 2014 here? Or 1978 same happened back then and we were very cold and dry

I was just think that mugs. March 3rd 2014 will live in infamy for me.

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Post by Guest Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:54 pm

March 2014!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm moving south for snow.

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