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Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:09 pm

QPF I know it's the NAM but..... Nice to see

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 5 Post-910-0-88975000-1421636397

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:09 pm

Figures i leave LI to go back to school and a few days later we will probably get a snowstorm.
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:12 pm

FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER AS WE GET INSIDE OF 3 DAYS A STORM CHANCE ACTUALLY IS TRENDING BETTER FOR US. TRYING NOT TO GET TOO EXCITED HERE ON LI BUT HARD NOT TO. IM GOING TO BED EARLY TONIGHT AFTER A RIDICULOUS PARTY LAST NIGHT. WHEN I WAKE UP IN THE MORNING PLEASE LET THERE BE GOOD NEWS.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:14 pm

Nice pictures, but it's the NAM which more often than not over does qpf and 75 hours out is not reliable. I'd sign for it right now but have no confidence in this model. If we see it in at least one of the other 0Z runs tonight I may start to let myself believe.

Just trying to keep it real.
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:16 pm

syosnow94 wrote:FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER AS WE GET INSIDE OF 3 DAYS A STORM CHANCE ACTUALLY IS TRENDING BETTER FOR US.  TRYING NOT TO GET TOO EXCITED HERE ON LI BUT HARD NOT TO.  IM GOING TO BED EARLY TONIGHT AFTER A RIDICULOUS PARTY LAST NIGHT.  WHEN I WAKE UP IN THE MORNING PLEASE LET THERE BE GOOD NEWS.

Syosnow94, before we get too excited, let's wait for the rest of the 0Z suite. By tomorrow night, the RGEM will also be in range. For the February 8-9, 2013 blizzard for New England (which some have called "Nemo") the NAM was calling for up to 77 inches of snow, that's right seventy-seven inches of snow. So let's not hug the NAM just yet

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:21 pm

So Frank, any chance we can see our clipper slow down and phase sooner, which would sure to give everyone 6+, or do you think the pattern is still too progressive?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:21 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER AS WE GET INSIDE OF 3 DAYS A STORM CHANCE ACTUALLY IS TRENDING BETTER FOR US.  TRYING NOT TO GET TOO EXCITED HERE ON LI BUT HARD NOT TO.  IM GOING TO BED EARLY TONIGHT AFTER A RIDICULOUS PARTY LAST NIGHT.  WHEN I WAKE UP IN THE MORNING PLEASE LET THERE BE GOOD NEWS.

Syosnow94, before we get too excited, let's wait for the rest of the 0Z suite.  By tomorrow night, the RGEM will also be in range.  For the February 8-9, 2013 blizzard for New England (which some have called "Nemo") the NAM was calling for up to 77 inches of snow, that's right seventy-seven inches of snow.  So let's not hug the NAM just yet

I remember that. It was the 00z run 2 nights before the storm. Or was it one night? Either way, insane. Hence, this model is garbage.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:23 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:So Frank, any chance we can see our clipper slow down and phase sooner, which would sure to give everyone 6+, or do you think the pattern is still too progressive?

Progressive flow. I like the height rises along the east coast though. If this storm does deliver 6+ inches it will have more to do with the storm slowing down because of more amplification, also, frontogenesis enhancing snow rates.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:32 pm

Soundings are showing instability and 1/2" snow rates. I know it's the nam but Jesus h let me have a snow weenie moment and anyone else join me!!

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:33 pm

Gfs up next folks..........

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:45 pm

I am liking the 00z GFS so far...

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:47 pm

At 48 ridge in the west is slightly better than 18z GFS. Critical to see heights begin to rise along coast.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:51 pm

18z GFS had more digging and higher heights. This run will not look like 18z GFS.

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:55 pm

Flurries for the area on the 0z GFS
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:55 pm

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

Geez, just slightly lower heights along the east coast makes a big difference. Hopefully tomorrow we can get back to seeing those higher heights.

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:03 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

Geez, just slightly lower heights along the east coast makes a big difference. Hopefully tomorrow we can get back to seeing those higher heights.

GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. Evil or Very Mad
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:06 pm

That run looks horrible
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:10 pm

It didn't look, it WAS horrible, of course I didn't expect the GFS to agree with NAM but was so hoping.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:12 pm

Right jman it is horrible
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:18 pm

If we look at the bigger picture for the Wednesday event we'll notice there is some east-based blocking but the ridge orientation in the west is not-so ideal. It's far from a bad set-up but it will come down to height rise along the east coast.

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 5 Gfs_z500a_nhem_10

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:28 pm

Still have a good feeling about this Frank or not totally sure yet? Probably Tuesday 00z or 12z be our deciding model runs yes?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Still have a good feeling about this Frank or not totally sure yet?  Probably Tuesday 00z or 12z be our deciding model runs yes?

Tomorrow night at 00z we should pretty much know.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:30 pm

I want to see the GEFS

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:46 pm

00z GGEM has snow showers.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:57 pm

00z GEFS

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 5 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 5 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78

Thank god. Goodnight.

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