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Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:07 am

EURO!!!!!!

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 6 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:08 am

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 6 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

I have to wake up in 5 hours

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:53 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 6 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

I have to wake up in 5 hours

How much snow is that!?
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:43 am

@sroc4 wrote:So this thing has def trended stronger with a more expansive precip field as it hits the coast when looking at th Euro, CMC, and Euro Ens, but it has also trended south a touch bringing the the core of the precip through the DC Baltimore area with points North of central NJ barely seeing a flake.   The GFS as is par for course still seems to show up late to the party.  Its track is furthest north but its weak with little to now QPF (wrong IMO) and actually looks like some change over to rain along the immediate coast.  This is actually not a bad thing as of today.  Take a look at where the energy that will be this clipper is as of the Euro's 00z run.  Still way off shore.  Like I said yesterday I wont buy anything as a final soln until Sun/Mon 00'z runs at the earliest.  
Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 6 <a href=Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 6 Ecmwf_14" />

The image below is the 00z Euro ens mean with its individual LP placement.
Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 6 <a href=Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 6 Eps_sl11" />  
The black line is last nights track.  The blue line is where I would like to see the track to give some of us a chance at a solid 3-6" event.  Thats only a shift of about 100-125miles to the north. With our energy still off shore in the Pac the blue line is entirely possible.   A swing and a miss south and OTS is entirely possible as well, but "I think" it comes back north.  How much well we shall see.  The energy will be coming onshore today and tonight so 12z today, and more importantly tonight's 00'z and 12'z tomorrow will be telling.  


I will start by saying good morning and Happy Monday, and by quoting myself from yesterday morning.  I am very glad I refused the temptation to jump off the snow weenie bridge after yesterdays 12z runs and also glad I decided not to post on here until this morning, even after the nice trends north by 18z and the 00z NAM.  

I was expecting the northward trend and clearly it has begun, but we still have work to do.  12z will be pretty telling IMO about which way this trends overall. This can still go right back to the south


Last edited by sroc4 on Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:56 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:50 am

At this point.I'm not getting too excited as it has a southern bias.Hopefully, it trends north but time is passing.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:53 am

@amugs wrote:Very nice run to kick of the 00z suite that I will check in the morning before I go to school. Bring home some goods but Frank keys being

1. as you stated this storm getting out of here faster
2. Western ridge staying put
3. Heights rising on ec
4. No energy de amplifying things
5. Close to a phase IMO
6. Positive vibes - Scott I want that pic of you doing a snow angel in your briefs from this storm like last year you promised on this board! No I am not a perv or anything of the sort but a bet sroc made to us on thi board

I will finish this morning with Quoting MUGS.  Yesterday as I watched the 18z NAM come in, followed by the 18z GFS, I was thinking to myself....ya know the same offering to the snow Gods from last March still applies here.  If the 00z show snow I will make this statement again on the board in the morning.  

So here it is.  Since we are a family board instead of my skivvies, I swear if I get 2-4"(edited: I am not greedy) IMBY I will post a picture of myself doing a snow angel in nothing but my bathing suit.  And to take it one step further if I receive 4+" IMBY I will also post a video of me doing cartwheels around my back yard in said bathing suit.  

Yes folks that is what I am willing to do if it means bringing some of the white gold into the area.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:34 am

This piece of crap clipper better deliver. I want to see Scott be an acrobat

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:41 am

So realistically a good call for this is 2-3 inches after last night's run?
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:44 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:So realistically a good call for this is 2-3 inches after last night's run?

For me after looking at all the models, (some weighted more than others) and their output from last night yes. But I am not ready to call it yet

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:57 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Very nice run to kick of the 00z suite that I will check in the morning before I go to school. Bring home some goods but Frank keys being

1. as you stated this storm getting out of here faster
2. Western ridge staying put
3. Heights rising on ec
4. No energy de amplifying things
5. Close to a phase IMO
6. Positive vibes - Scott I want that pic of you doing a snow angel in your briefs from this storm like last year you promised on this board! No I am not a perv or anything of the sort but a bet sroc made to us on thi board

I will finish this morning with Quoting MUGS.  Yesterday as I watched the 18z NAM come in, followed by the 18z GFS, I was thinking to myself....ya know the same offering to the snow Gods from last March still applies here.  If the 00z show snow I will make this statement again on the board in the morning.  

So here it is.  Since we are a family board instead of my skivvies, I swear if I get 2-4"(edited: I am not greedy) IMBY I will post a picture of myself doing a snow angel in nothing but my bathing suit.  And to take it one step further if I receive 4+" IMBY I will also post a video of me doing cartwheels around my back yard in said bathing suit.  

Yes folks that is what I am willing to do if it means bringing some of the white gold into the area.

Doc, what are you willing to do for a Frankzilla?
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Post by carvin1079 Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:10 am

Om so what is the real vibe on this clippee

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Post by Guest Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:20 am

Just woke up to see 3 more pages of posts so was hoping for better news. But the scroll on top gave it away. Just 1 time we deserve to have one of these things go our way.

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Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:23 am

9z SREF has .50 right over NYC

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 6 14nguh4

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 6 Dfaaog
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:29 am

NWS UPTON DISCUSSION

WHAT HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH IS IN THE
MEAN...THE IDEA OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A PLOWABLE SNOW...IF NOT AN
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA.

That would be from Westchester county south through most of NJ

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Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:34 am

RPM has 6-8 inches for NYC with the clipper lol
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:48 am

If NYC get that much it would mean double down here haha
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:25 am

Snow, you have be careful when looking at those SREF images: Note the 4-6, even up to 8 standard deviation about the pressure value. That means that the "mean" is essentially useless at this point, because with the pressure field being that uncertain, so too are the exact precipitation fields. That said, more individual SREF members are getting excited about this. I'd remain cautiously optimistic when viewing the SREFs until tomorrow's runs, because outside of about 36-48 hours, the SREFs dynamical core becomes ridden with exponential decay in solution accuracy.

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Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:42 am

Snow showers on the 12z Nam for the area. I will take this.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:48 am

12z NAM is a strung out mess at H5 versus 00z where the energy was much more consolidated, which allowed significantly stronger positive vorticity advection in addition to better forcing for ascent from a more amplified shortwave trough and our location downstream of it. There was also some jet support in the 00z from the left-exit region. The energy is only coming onshore today, so details will change between these runs and those of tomorrow.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:03 am

The Euro ensembles have LP developing off the coast, just where is still a pretty big spread, a few of the snow maps have big hits but not many.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:08 am

Uptons first map, I am right in the bullseye, If this thing can really get going I say we could see a solid 6 inches in some places.

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 6 Upton10
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:10 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Uptons first map, I am right in the bullseye, If this thing can really get going I say we could see a solid 6 inches in some places.

Wednesday, Jan. 21st Clipper Storm - Page 6 Upton10

I used to give these maps respect, but because they change hourly I no longer

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:16 am

LOL, well I wouldnt say hourly but a few times a day yes, but it seems fairly in line with what Frank is calling for.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:17 am

Sounds like we are hoping for big changes so I'll take the 2-3 inches and be happy it's just the way winter is.
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:23 am

A day ago I would have been very happy with 2-3, but now I want to see sroc snow angels and cartwheels. Come on 4"!!!
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