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BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:47 pm

Please follow the link to my latest blog which looks at the overall pattern in the medium to long range, as well as, touch on the possible storm systems over the next 10 days.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/01/next-3-weeks-critical-to-salvaging.html

If by the end of these 3 weeks, which will feature below normal temperatures, does not produce at least a moderate snowfall, that will likely be the last nail to the coffin in trying to reach average snowfall for CPK this season. Hopefully something delivers.

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:16 pm

I mentioned this on this forum before but February 11th, 2012 was a double punch in the stomach for snow lovers. In the days leading up to it, there was a forecast for several inches of snow throughout the NYC region. but it never got it's act together and I doubt anyone got more than an inch from this. In fact, Central Park got only a trace of snow from it.

This is not my video, but a TWC "Local on the 8s" for Long Island (starts at 0:16 in the video) shows the radar and the 7-day forecast. Not pretty.

If that wasn't bad enough, later that afternoon, I got home from work and went onto the 7-online chat board. And there was Frank's thread stating that he officially threw in the towel on the winter of 2011-12. As depressing as that thread was, it was reality.

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Post by toople Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:22 pm

lol! The music scared me as soon I opened the website. Laughing

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:26 pm

@toople wrote:lol! The music scared me as soon I opened the website. Laughing

Ha, sorry! Now you're really awake.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:27 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:I mentioned this on this forum before but February 11th, 2012 was a double punch in the stomach for snow lovers.  In the days leading up to it, there was a forecast for several inches of snow throughout the NYC region.  but it never got it's act together and I doubt anyone got more than an inch from this.  In fact, Central Park got only a trace of snow from it.

This is not my video, but a TWC "Local on the 8s" for Long Island (starts at 0:16 in the video) shows the radar and the 7-day forecast.  Not pretty.  

If that wasn't bad enough, later that afternoon, I got home from work and went onto the 7-online chat board.  And there was Frank's thread stating that he officially threw in the towel on the winter of 2011-12.  As depressing as that thread was, it was reality.

If after these next 2 weeks things don't go our way, you will see a similar thread.

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:30 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:I mentioned this on this forum before but February 11th, 2012 was a double punch in the stomach for snow lovers.  In the days leading up to it, there was a forecast for several inches of snow throughout the NYC region.  but it never got it's act together and I doubt anyone got more than an inch from this.  In fact, Central Park got only a trace of snow from it.

This is not my video, but a TWC "Local on the 8s" for Long Island (starts at 0:16 in the video) shows the radar and the 7-day forecast.  Not pretty.  

If that wasn't bad enough, later that afternoon, I got home from work and went onto the 7-online chat board.  And there was Frank's thread stating that he officially threw in the towel on the winter of 2011-12.  As depressing as that thread was, it was reality.

If after these next 2 weeks things don't go our way, you will see a similar thread.

I guess I didnt post the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbU9gQdnYXM

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Post by Guest Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:39 pm

Hey Frank great write up. I have a bone to pick with you though. Yesterday you said you haven't been this excited in a long time for our snowstorm chances and then posted again that we should be pumped up for the blog. I was. And now that I've read it I am bummed. NOT YOUR FAULT!! IT WAS A DETAILED ACCURATE BLOG. You only report on the weather not control it. But you came across pessimistic after several days of build up and excitement.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:45 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Hey Frank great write up.  I have a bone to pick with you though.  Yesterday you said you haven't been this excited in a long time for our snowstorm chances and then posted again that we should be pumped up for the blog.  I was.  And now that I've read it I am bummed.  NOT YOUR FAULT!!  IT WAS A DETAILED ACCURATE BLOG.  You only report on the weather not control it.  But you came across pessimistic after several days of build up and excitement.

Im still pumped. Truly feel the 23rd-5th time frame will deliver 2-3 snow events still. The blog just looks at the pattern and what can go wrong. I do express some doubt because of how this winter has gone so far, but the upcoming period is the best we've seen all year.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:46 pm

Euro seeing something around the 25th.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:51 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Hey Frank great write up.  I have a bone to pick with you though.  Yesterday you said you haven't been this excited in a long time for our snowstorm chances and then posted again that we should be pumped up for the blog.  I was.  And now that I've read it I am bummed.  NOT YOUR FAULT!!  IT WAS A DETAILED ACCURATE BLOG.  You only report on the weather not control it.  But you came across pessimistic after several days of build up and excitement.

Im still pumped. Truly feel the 23rd-5th time frame will deliver 2-3 snow events still. The blog just looks at the pattern and what can go wrong. I do express some doubt because of how this winter has gone so far, but the upcoming period is the best we've seen all year.

Frank I do concur and thank you for taking your time to write such a great detailed outlook as always. Just not seeming to be in the cards so far but Still positive for the next 3 weeks WHICH is the snowiest period for us in this area the time period you mention until the seconomy week of feb/ middle of feb.
how come I have a feeling we get the NAO going negative in march and get a slop storm in early March and a cold dreary march.

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Post by Guest Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:53 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Hey Frank great write up.  I have a bone to pick with you though.  Yesterday you said you haven't been this excited in a long time for our snowstorm chances and then posted again that we should be pumped up for the blog.  I was.  And now that I've read it I am bummed.  NOT YOUR FAULT!!  IT WAS A DETAILED ACCURATE BLOG.  You only report on the weather not control it.  But you came across pessimistic after several days of build up and excitement.

Im still pumped. Truly feel the 23rd-5th time frame will deliver 2-3 snow events still. The blog just looks at the pattern and what can go wrong. I do express some doubt because of how this winter has gone so far, but the upcoming period is the best we've seen all year.

OK Fair enough. Thanks buddy. You da man!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 2:40 pm

I like that the 26th time frame might have east-based blocking. I hope this holds up.

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter Post-40-0-93233400-1421609814

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 2:58 pm

The Euro has no snow accumulation toward coast, I knw not to take these verbatim but not even a fantasy storm god. Thanks for the writrup Frank but i felt it was not as enthused as you made it sound.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:07 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:The Euro has no snow accumulation toward coast, I knw not to take these verbatim but not even a fantasy storm god.  Thanks for the writrup Frank but i felt it was not as enthused as you made it sound.

I know, we get glimmers of hope only to be shut. down.

But Frank, nor anyone, can promise snow. The fact is that the upcoming 10+ days feature some hopeful pattern changes that COULD bring us some accumulating snowfall events (i.e., blocking to the east which we really haven't had properly set up this season)... Frank's basically explaining why it could be great for us snow lovers but also, responsibly so, explaining what can go wrong despite that. We will get a snow storm this Winter! I MUST BELIEVE IT! Just try to remember why we all enjoy WX -- It has and always will keep us on our toes and excite us...then taketh away...then blast us with something major. That's part of the sick obsession lol. alien
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:15 pm

"I believe that it will snow!" bounce
"I believe that it will snow!" bounce
"I believe that it will snow!" bounce


Just don't know when!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:20 pm

Yeah true storms have popped out of nowhere only to disappear and come back. But it just has not been our year, but hopefully Franks analysis comes to fruitation and we get a few good storms. I don't even need a godzilla, one or two or more 3-6 events and we have the same amount of snow. Of course do not get me wrong a godzilla or better would be awesome.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yeah true storms have popped out of nowhere only to disappear and come back.  But it just has not been our year, but hopefully Franks analysis comes to fruitation and we get a few good storms.  I don't even need a godzilla, one or two or more 3-6 events and we have the same amount of snow.  Of course do not get me wrong a godzilla or better would be awesome.

Ahh, yeah. I would like a ROIDZILLA. cheers
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:19 pm

So...the euro ensembles have a closed 582 ddm ridge in the west with a sharp looking trough on the east. Signal for 26th storm looks good

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:32 pm

18z NAVGEM for 23rd closes off H5 over NC. Impressive.

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter Nvg10.500.132.namer

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:35 pm

No image Frank didn't post.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:34 pm

That storm around the 27th on the GFS has great potential if the ridge out west can maintain itself. MJO heading into the COD may make that a difficult task. UHG, we'll see.

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Post by Guest Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:25 am

Frank what happened to storm threat for this weekend?

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:16 pm

Its still there.

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:28 pm

cmc out through 120hrs
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter I_nw_g1_EST_2015011912_120
6z navgem
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter Navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_22
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:30 pm

gfs
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter Gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_22
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