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BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:27 pm

This may be a coastal special for us Ace . I would like to everyone get in on it
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:36 pm

Bernie Rayno's video just now saying this our first 'real' significant threat of a big snowstorm this season. Says American models have precip too Far East and they will correct themselves soon..
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:46 pm

I like and respect Rayno, out of anyone video I watch its his. He often does a pretty darn good job. And he is humble if he doesn't get it right.
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:19 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno's video just now saying this our first 'real' significant threat of a big snowstorm this season. Says American models have precip too Far East and they will correct themselves soon..

Agreed. He also says coastal areas might be rain!!!!!!!

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:22 pm

EURO makes a great run for Stururday storm - YIPEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f99

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f102

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f105

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f108

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno's video just now saying this our first 'real' significant threat of a big snowstorm this season. Says American models have precip too Far East and they will correct themselves soon..

Agreed.  He also says coastal areas might be rain!!!!!!!

Me no lie - look at the post in WX banter - coast has issues

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:25 pm

114 on Euro - SYOSNOW you watching????????

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f111

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:26 pm

@amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno's video just now saying this our first 'real' significant threat of a big snowstorm this season. Says American models have precip too Far East and they will correct themselves soon..

Agreed.  He also says coastal areas might be rain!!!!!!!

Me no lie - look at the post in WX banter - coast has issues

Not if that EURO run just now verifies. :-D :-D
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:33 pm

Yeah he did mugs, but he also said if it deepens rapidly it will produce its own cold and it certainly looks to deepen pretty quick. Cane north too. Verbatin gives NYC area and south 6-10. But qpf is over a inch so there appears to be some mixing.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:39 pm

Bookend Tuesday

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f144

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f150

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 5 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f156

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:43 pm

That's way weaker than last nights wow. Still long ways off as you guys always say one storm at a time. Frank I see your scroll, not only the Euro but the NAVGEM and now GFS have trended north and west. I just pray that it can produce enough cold I do not even want to mention the word.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:45 pm

2nd storm actually adds quite a bit of white to the 1st system, I think we may be in business for a pretty rare back to back noreasters.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:47 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:2nd storm actually adds quite a bit of white to the 1st system, I think we may be in business for a pretty rare back to back noreasters.

Is it time for a thread yet for Saturday's potential Nor'easter?! :-D
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:48 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:2nd storm actually adds quite a bit of white to the 1st system, I think we may be in business for a pretty rare back to back noreasters.

Is it time for a thread yet for Saturday's potential Nor'easter?! :-D

...or maybe we can call the thread 'Double Header' and track both SATURDAY and Tuesday in it! ;-)
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:54 pm

Navgem is now out to sea and cmc brushes coastal locations. my thinking is we want it to come West about another 100 miles the next couple of runs because I think the models will correct east as we get closer to the event
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Post by Sunflowers138 Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:00 pm

I second the thread called "Double Header". Let's go snow!!

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:04 pm

I had to quote this from BASTARDI just now, lol:

'EURO has 4 snow events next week DC to Boston... The one on weekend and mon-tues next week may have 6-12", locally 15"... Each.'
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:06 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I had to quote this from BASTARDI just now, lol:

'EURO has 4 snow events next week DC to Boston... The one on weekend and mon-tues next week may have 6-12", locally 15"... Each.'
it probably won't happen but that's what the Euro operational shows
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:09 pm

It doesn't show 12-24 inches total, it shows about 12 from both on wxbell. JB lol, He has balls to put that out there already, I guess its not that far off but still hopefully not the KOD!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:11 pm

I know it is entirely difficult to say right now but I have to ask. My wife has plans to go up to Monticello NY on Sat and I have a massage scheduled. Should I cancel and should she? My thinking is wait until Thursday 12z runs or Fridays 00z runs before calling it but any input?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:14 pm

Uh oh, the very consistent NAVGEM now has it WAY OTS, not too worried on that one as the GFS and Euro (most reliable IMO) have it inching closer and closer.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:18 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I had to quote this from BASTARDI just now, lol:

'EURO has 4 snow events next week DC to Boston... The one on weekend and mon-tues next week may have 6-12", locally 15"... Each.'
it probably won't happen but that's what the Euro operational shows

Al - there is a 50/50 chance for this to happen at this time with the H% set up - nice spike in the PNA and though not ideal enough to get the job done and heights rise over the NAO region with a 50/50 block from the clipper that along with the uber straits block it doesn't scoot out which slows down the storm and this happens again on Tuesday as the heights stay up.

Bastardi maybe a hype artist but he ain't lying on this one IMHO from what the EURO showing now. The H5 pattern is there so it is not out of teh question that we can see two bookend MECS - we are a hair away from a HECS and a MECS.

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:21 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Uh oh, the very consistent NAVGEM now has it WAY OTS, not too worried on that one as the GFS and Euro (most reliable IMO) have it inching closer and closer.

Ta DA - it loses storm in the mid range - its bias - if the euro did this I would be very concerned.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:21 pm

Idk if any of you guys noticed, but we have to watch how a trailing shortwave develops (or hopefully doesn't develop) as the larger trough starts deepening and inducing cyclogenesis. Just as a "for instance", look at hour 96 on the latest Euro run; do you see that small shortwave over southwestern MN/northwestern IA? That is the reason why the system remains offshore and the main trough responsible for the coastal development stays neutrally tilted....it's too close. This acts as a kicker for the larger system, and does not allow it to deepen to its fullest potential, nor tilt negative (almost identically to how this clipper is going to work out). We must keep an eye on that second shortwave; it's going to be the key to this whole event, I think. The stronger that secondary piece, the further OTS and weaker this possible storm is; the weaker (or nonexistence thereof), the better shot we have of seeing a widespread significant snowstorm.


Last edited by rb924119 on Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:23 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:22 pm

Hour 96 - 999
Hour 108 - 975
24 mbs in 12 hours - Stronger deepening than at 0Z

Could be one run or a trend????

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