BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Math, so true, thank goodness its still almost 5 days out, lots of time to get us all good! Come on I have the power to change this sucker lol, the later storm on the GFS still OTS.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
I mean look at how close that is to get us all on the southern areas, dunno bout you way up there in HV, but I could see this go far enough north to get LI, NYC and Westchester and CT (southern).
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
This may be a coastal special for us Ace . I would like to everyone get in on it
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Bernie Rayno's video just now saying this our first 'real' significant threat of a big snowstorm this season. Says American models have precip too Far East and they will correct themselves soon..
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
I like and respect Rayno, out of anyone video I watch its his. He often does a pretty darn good job. And he is humble if he doesn't get it right.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno's video just now saying this our first 'real' significant threat of a big snowstorm this season. Says American models have precip too Far East and they will correct themselves soon..
Agreed. He also says coastal areas might be rain!!!!!!!
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
EURO makes a great run for Stururday storm - YIPEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
syosnow94 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno's video just now saying this our first 'real' significant threat of a big snowstorm this season. Says American models have precip too Far East and they will correct themselves soon..
Agreed. He also says coastal areas might be rain!!!!!!!
Me no lie - look at the post in WX banter - coast has issues
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
114 on Euro - SYOSNOW you watching????????
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
amugs wrote:syosnow94 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno's video just now saying this our first 'real' significant threat of a big snowstorm this season. Says American models have precip too Far East and they will correct themselves soon..
Agreed. He also says coastal areas might be rain!!!!!!!
Me no lie - look at the post in WX banter - coast has issues
Not if that EURO run just now verifies. :-D :-D
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Yeah he did mugs, but he also said if it deepens rapidly it will produce its own cold and it certainly looks to deepen pretty quick. Cane north too. Verbatin gives NYC area and south 6-10. But qpf is over a inch so there appears to be some mixing.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Bookend Tuesday
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
That's way weaker than last nights wow. Still long ways off as you guys always say one storm at a time. Frank I see your scroll, not only the Euro but the NAVGEM and now GFS have trended north and west. I just pray that it can produce enough cold I do not even want to mention the word.
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
2nd storm actually adds quite a bit of white to the 1st system, I think we may be in business for a pretty rare back to back noreasters.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
jmanley32 wrote:2nd storm actually adds quite a bit of white to the 1st system, I think we may be in business for a pretty rare back to back noreasters.
Is it time for a thread yet for Saturday's potential Nor'easter?! :-D
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
SoulSingMG wrote:jmanley32 wrote:2nd storm actually adds quite a bit of white to the 1st system, I think we may be in business for a pretty rare back to back noreasters.
Is it time for a thread yet for Saturday's potential Nor'easter?! :-D
...or maybe we can call the thread 'Double Header' and track both SATURDAY and Tuesday in it! ;-)
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Navgem is now out to sea and cmc brushes coastal locations. my thinking is we want it to come West about another 100 miles the next couple of runs because I think the models will correct east as we get closer to the event
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
I second the thread called "Double Header". Let's go snow!!
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
I had to quote this from BASTARDI just now, lol:
'EURO has 4 snow events next week DC to Boston... The one on weekend and mon-tues next week may have 6-12", locally 15"... Each.'
'EURO has 4 snow events next week DC to Boston... The one on weekend and mon-tues next week may have 6-12", locally 15"... Each.'
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
it probably won't happen but that's what the Euro operational showsSoulSingMG wrote:I had to quote this from BASTARDI just now, lol:
'EURO has 4 snow events next week DC to Boston... The one on weekend and mon-tues next week may have 6-12", locally 15"... Each.'
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
It doesn't show 12-24 inches total, it shows about 12 from both on wxbell. JB lol, He has balls to put that out there already, I guess its not that far off but still hopefully not the KOD!
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
I know it is entirely difficult to say right now but I have to ask. My wife has plans to go up to Monticello NY on Sat and I have a massage scheduled. Should I cancel and should she? My thinking is wait until Thursday 12z runs or Fridays 00z runs before calling it but any input?
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Uh oh, the very consistent NAVGEM now has it WAY OTS, not too worried on that one as the GFS and Euro (most reliable IMO) have it inching closer and closer.
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
algae888 wrote:it probably won't happen but that's what the Euro operational showsSoulSingMG wrote:I had to quote this from BASTARDI just now, lol:
'EURO has 4 snow events next week DC to Boston... The one on weekend and mon-tues next week may have 6-12", locally 15"... Each.'
Al - there is a 50/50 chance for this to happen at this time with the H% set up - nice spike in the PNA and though not ideal enough to get the job done and heights rise over the NAO region with a 50/50 block from the clipper that along with the uber straits block it doesn't scoot out which slows down the storm and this happens again on Tuesday as the heights stay up.
Bastardi maybe a hype artist but he ain't lying on this one IMHO from what the EURO showing now. The H5 pattern is there so it is not out of teh question that we can see two bookend MECS - we are a hair away from a HECS and a MECS.
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
jmanley32 wrote:Uh oh, the very consistent NAVGEM now has it WAY OTS, not too worried on that one as the GFS and Euro (most reliable IMO) have it inching closer and closer.
Ta DA - it loses storm in the mid range - its bias - if the euro did this I would be very concerned.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Idk if any of you guys noticed, but we have to watch how a trailing shortwave develops (or hopefully doesn't develop) as the larger trough starts deepening and inducing cyclogenesis. Just as a "for instance", look at hour 96 on the latest Euro run; do you see that small shortwave over southwestern MN/northwestern IA? That is the reason why the system remains offshore and the main trough responsible for the coastal development stays neutrally tilted....it's too close. This acts as a kicker for the larger system, and does not allow it to deepen to its fullest potential, nor tilt negative (almost identically to how this clipper is going to work out). We must keep an eye on that second shortwave; it's going to be the key to this whole event, I think. The stronger that secondary piece, the further OTS and weaker this possible storm is; the weaker (or nonexistence thereof), the better shot we have of seeing a widespread significant snowstorm.
Last edited by rb924119 on Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Hour 96 - 999
Hour 108 - 975
24 mbs in 12 hours - Stronger deepening than at 0Z
Could be one run or a trend????
Hour 108 - 975
24 mbs in 12 hours - Stronger deepening than at 0Z
Could be one run or a trend????
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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