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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:35 pm

18z NAVGEM (sorry this all that has loaded so far not the best map to use. still holding strong, but is that too close to the coast for snow?

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 3 Navgem10
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Post by carvin1079 Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:45 pm

Lee Goldberg from channel 7 is hinting at a Storm sat and Monday then bitter cold

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:02 pm

@carvin1079 wrote:Lee Goldberg from channel 7 is hinting at a Storm sat and Monday then bitter cold

He's right.

Let me put this straight: this is one of the better potentials we've had all winter. The problem is just a slight change in deviation with certain upper air variables will have a dramatic impact on how the storm comes together. It can go from being completely out to sea to a Godzilla just like that. The pattern is that fragile.

That said, I like how the MJO is currently in phase 8. This is indicative of higher heights building in the west and anstout east-based -NAO. If the NAO can help slow down the northern stream anomalies...we're golden for a storm because that would promote a phase. Right now I can't say storm or no storm. I need more time to analyze the trends. Just realize the potential is there. If things look real by Thursday night we'll hold a chat on Friday.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:13 pm

Even beyond this weekend there are more storm threats to watch. I personally like the pattern better next week than I do for this upcoming weekend. I don't have enough faith yet that this weekend will feature a phase, thus no storm. Let's hope the MJO does its dirty work.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:22 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Even beyond this weekend there are more storm threats to watch. I personally like the pattern better next week than I do for this upcoming weekend. I don't have enough faith yet that this weekend will feature a phase, thus no storm. Let's hope the MJO does its dirty work.

Frank and I said this on the USA site - I like the Monday - Tuesday possibility A LOT - plenty of cold air - better block in place and STJ seems to be coming alive again. The other vort Wed/Thursday could be another one as well. Fun times ahead and you right about MJO - we need all the help we can get after what we have experienced so far.


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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:13 pm

00z GFS for the weekend storm is out to sea, but you can see it off the coast. It's a big storm. There is simply no northern stream interaction. Nothing ejecting out of the Polar Jet. Plenty of time for this to change.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:18 pm

Question is do you see this changing? We absolutely NEED a northern piece, theres no way the system could come closer itself? And what do you take if 00z Euro show a even more west so we get a hit tonight, but GFS holds to this?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:29 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Question is do you see this changing? We absolutely NEED a northern piece, theres no way the system could come closer itself? And what do you take if 00z Euro show a even more west so we get a hit tonight, but GFS holds to this?

Besides the NAVGEM, not one single model shows any northern stream interaction. I would just like to see it and I would get more excited about this system. The EURO Ens were impressive though so maybe there's a trend to be had soon. And no, this system won't get here alone without a phase.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:31 pm

The other storm threat is January 27th. That one also has potential.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:42 pm

Storm(s) Update:

1. Clipper: Yesterday the trend was for higher heights along the east coast with consolidated H5 energy. Today, that pesky vort is showing up over Minnesota again causing everything to de-amplify downstream. Heights are flatter and the energy looks a little more strung out, though it still looks potent enough to bring a minor snow event to the area with enhancement closer to the coast. Thinking C-2 inches for most of us and 2-4 inches for SNJ. Maybe we see better trends tomorrow, but as of now, the set-up is just ok.

2. January 24th: There's a phase that takes place in the Southwest U.S. that forms a nice H5 vort traveling east-northeast. Problem is, it remains detached from the polar jet. Without a phase we're likely to see a nice storm head out to sea. Still time for a change, and with a favorable MJO and some east-based blocking, that change is realistic. However, we need to start seeing positive trends with the northern stream as soon as tomorrow or Wednesday. If not, out to sea she goes.

3. January 27th-28th: I like this threat out of all of them but I do caution where the MJO goes has an impact on its evolution. An MJO still in phase 8 or even 1 would promote Pacific blocking and probably some east-based blocking as well. The full-latitude trough currently shown on guidance would have a great pattern to work with if those features come to fruition. But, if the MJO collapses the western ridge will face trouble from the Pacific Jet again. Still too early for that storm but the potential is there.

We'll see what happens. I am dying for something to finally go our way. Whether it's this Saturday or next Tuesday...just something...go our %^&*()_ way

Remember, these next 2-3 weeks determine the fate of our winter.

Goodnight.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:47 pm

00z NAVGEM = Godzilla. At least 5 runs in a row now of showing this.

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 3 Nvg10.prp.120.conus

Only model with a phase. Pray for the NAVGEM people!

I GOT MY WIFI BACK!!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:29 am

Frank your image didn't post here ya go OMG! Please NAVGEM verify, never seen it this consistent!

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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:33 am

cmc is closer but also warm

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:35 am

Al just looked at temps for CMC and the cold is way south, that map shows rain dunno why.
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:47 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Al just looked at temps for CMC and the cold is way south, that map shows rain dunno why.
yes you are right. anyway with deepening low east of us temps should not be a problem. I hear ukie is way ots. so most important for system to get further north.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:32 am

On a beautiful note the Euro came even more north! Brongs snow into area especially southern Jersey! Frank is there northern assistance there, I do not know how to tell.

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:33 am

0Z EURO for the weekend: right around the 40/70 BM. It gives NYC some precipitation, though temperatures are marginal. Heaviest is south of NYC where Quietace is.

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:35 am

@jmanley32 wrote:On a beautiful note the Euro came even more north! Brongs snow into area especially southern Jersey!  Frank is there northern assistance there, I do not know how to tell.

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 3 Euro_m10

HOLY CRAP.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:37 am

Hush math lol, this is gonna slam us I have a good feeling, its strong enough it will help with its own cold.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:42 am

MADONNE #2!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:45 am

This has my so happy tonight! Just hope they both hold or get better! This is the one Frank feels better about!

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:45 am

@jmanley32 wrote:MADONNE #2!

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 3 Euro_m11
hr 186 has it at 975 mb also right around the 40/70 BM...

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:47 am

Lets just say that second one very close to godzilla for all, just a tad further north, will hold off on posting snow maps they are useless as of now but boy they are fun to look at when you got a storm like that!!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:48 am

I posted hr 186, these are some exciting days of tracking coming up, ugg 120 and 180 hrs lol night!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:42 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Lets just say that second one very close to godzilla for all, just a tad further north, will hold off on posting snow maps they are useless as of now but boy they are fun to look at when you got a storm like that!!

I think this post of your says it best Jman. They are a lot of fun to look at but let's face it were still in fantasy land as far as either one hitting us and if they do so with snow. So many variables still at this point BUT at least a storm is consistently showing on several models. Of course it's still several days out so I'm not getting psyched YET.
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