BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
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sroc4
CPcantmeasuresnow
carvin1079
skinsfan1177
Quietace
sabamfa
nutleyblizzard
algae888
Dunnzoo
SoulSingMG
jmanley32
amugs
toople
Math23x7
Frank_Wx
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
I posted hr 186, these are some exciting days of tracking coming up, ugg 120 and 180 hrs lol night!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
jmanley32 wrote:Lets just say that second one very close to godzilla for all, just a tad further north, will hold off on posting snow maps they are useless as of now but boy they are fun to look at when you got a storm like that!!
I think this post of your says it best Jman. They are a lot of fun to look at but let's face it were still in fantasy land as far as either one hitting us and if they do so with snow. So many variables still at this point BUT at least a storm is consistently showing on several models. Of course it's still several days out so I'm not getting psyched YET.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Yes we have seen these all winter long and you know the rest of the story. Temper our expectations if its still their later this week I'll start to get excited but not until Thursday Friday timeframe.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
6z gfssss!!!
we are getting there!
we are getting there!
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Yep al 06z gfs made the same jump north. What's more impressive is the euro ensembles. At least or near half have a big hit. Add the 27th to that and we are buried per euro.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Wow at the overnight guidance. Everything trended favorably. The euro ensembles are a hit. COME ON BABY
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Euro wants 2 hits frank both of them. I'ma fine two major noreasters within a few days of each other.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
6z navgem is STILL showing the storm. This model has been nuts
I do caution that the NAVGEM has a phase, while the EURO is all southern stream driven. That's why on the navgem the storm deepens so much. A strictly southern stream driven storm you run into the risk of rain and worrying about when or if there's a changeover.
I do caution that the NAVGEM has a phase, while the EURO is all southern stream driven. That's why on the navgem the storm deepens so much. A strictly southern stream driven storm you run into the risk of rain and worrying about when or if there's a changeover.
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
jmanley32 wrote:Euro wants 2 hits frank both of them. I'ma fine two major noreasters within a few days of each other.
Yup, told you we have this weekend then again around the 27th. And I like the 27th setup better haha.
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
looks like 27th was closer on operational euro too. Â i think or hope lol we get doozied by both bring it on. Yeah i noted some of the euro ensembles had ziltch for snowfall which is concerning but overall it is a hit.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Frank is doing an unbelievable job keeping us all in the know with these threats. Â For that I thank him because I just don't have the time I wish I had to do it along side him. Â For now when/IF I have some time I will chime in. Â Â
Obv there is work to do still, but one can only be happy that there are these chances. Â If you've been on here reading along with my ensemble forecast blogs you will know that I have been keying in on the 25th time frame. Â The models continue to zero in on that time as wel. Â I am certainly not claiming victory by any means here, but I am becoming more and more optimistic by the day that at least one of these threats will deliver. Â
Threats 1, 2, and 3 before the end of the month. Â Here is the Euro on these chances.
1) this weekend(00z Jan 25th     Please please please)
" />
2) Early-mid next week ( Â Â Â Â )
" />
3) last day or two of the month ( Â )
" />
Will any of these work out for your back yard or my back yard or any of our back yards is yet to be determined. Â There is a chance that none of these threats work out, but cautious optimism is a must.
Obv there is work to do still, but one can only be happy that there are these chances. Â If you've been on here reading along with my ensemble forecast blogs you will know that I have been keying in on the 25th time frame. Â The models continue to zero in on that time as wel. Â I am certainly not claiming victory by any means here, but I am becoming more and more optimistic by the day that at least one of these threats will deliver. Â
Threats 1, 2, and 3 before the end of the month. Â Here is the Euro on these chances.
1) this weekend(00z Jan 25th     Please please please)
" />
2) Early-mid next week ( Â Â Â Â )
" />
3) last day or two of the month ( Â )
" />
Will any of these work out for your back yard or my back yard or any of our back yards is yet to be determined. Â There is a chance that none of these threats work out, but cautious optimism is a must.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9" Â Â Â
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
add in the 6z dgex..
track inside the benchmark
track inside the benchmark
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
mjo for both systems now seem to be in phase 8 according to gfs an it's ensemble.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
I have heard from Frank that the dgex is a useless model, but then again these all seem to be falling into line. we just need a bit more push to the north (not too much as do not want warm air (don't know if this would be an issue) but enough to get the precip closer. Â The Euro snow map (the first 25th, 27th was a decent hit) was a kick in the balls for HV all way down to just north of NYC as there is a big scoop out of that whole area with no snow, all west, south ands east. CT really gets hammered.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
A lot of hinting at the 25th best chance I think only the new g.f.s have the storm off coast most are hits
carvin1079- Posts : 61
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Incoming, or very close! Everything is trending North and west, this is great.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
12z GFS is a nice hit for us on my phone so can't post maps but came further north and west
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Done Al, LOL, I will post next frame once it comes in.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
12z GFS is knocking on the door for the 24th...
crippo84- Posts : 383
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
So this would possibly be a Saturday storm? What time might it start?
sabamfa- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Looks like coast gets hammered on that run
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Yes.....clobberedskinsfan1177 wrote:Looks like coast gets hammered on that run
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
How much "clobbered" for us long islanders? Give me a hint at a number! I'm dying for some snow over here!!!
Sunflowers138- Posts : 76
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Verbatim LI doesn't really get into it its a sharp cut off, NJ gets it good though southern, hopefully this pulls a bit more north, but then would bwe have mixing or rain issues? That is one serious storm, if it can intensify sooner, to that 966mb that it has once its past us that would probably keep the cold in even if it got much closer.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Quietace wins, what else is new?
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
Math, so true, thank goodness its still almost 5 days out, lots of time to get us all good! Come on I have the power to change this sucker lol, the later storm on the GFS still OTS.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter
I mean look at how close that is to get us all on the southern areas, dunno bout you way up there in HV, but I could see this go far enough north to get LI, NYC and Westchester and CT (southern).
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