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BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:18 am

Yes we have seen these all winter long and you know the rest of the story. Temper our expectations if its still their later this week I'll start to get excited but not until Thursday Friday timeframe.
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:19 am

6z gfssss!!!
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 Gfs_namer_114_10m_wnd_precip
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 Gfs_namer_117_10m_wnd_precip
we are getting there!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:48 am

Yep al 06z gfs made the same jump north. What's more impressive is the euro ensembles. At least or near half have a big hit. Add the 27th to that and we are buried per euro.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:54 am

Wow at the overnight guidance. Everything trended favorably. The euro ensembles are a hit. COME ON BABY

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 Post-33-0-61652300-1421745531

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:59 am

Euro wants 2 hits frank both of them. I'ma fine two major noreasters within a few days of each other.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:59 am

6z navgem is STILL showing the storm. This model has been nuts

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 Post-33-0-49982100-1421754849

I do caution that the NAVGEM has a phase, while the EURO is all southern stream driven. That's why on the navgem the storm deepens so much. A strictly southern stream driven storm you run into the risk of rain and worrying about when or if there's a changeover.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:00 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Euro wants 2 hits frank both of them. I'ma fine two major noreasters within a few days of each other.

Yup, told you we have this weekend then again around the 27th. And I like the 27th setup better haha.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:05 am

looks like 27th was closer on operational euro too.  i think or hope lol we get doozied by both bring it on. Yeah i noted some of the euro ensembles had ziltch for snowfall which is concerning but overall it is a hit.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:21 am

Frank is doing an unbelievable job keeping us all in the know with these threats.  For that I thank him because I just don't have the time I wish I had to do it along side him.  For now when/IF I have some time I will chime in.    
Obv there is work to do still, but one can only be happy that there are these chances.  If you've been on here reading along with my ensemble forecast blogs you will know that I have been keying in on the 25th time frame.  The models continue to zero in on that time as wel.  I am certainly not claiming victory by any means here, but I am becoming more and more optimistic by the day that at least one of these threats will deliver.  
Threats 1, 2, and 3 before the end of the month.  Here is the Euro on these chances.
1) this weekend(00z Jan 25th   bounce  bounce  bounce   Please please please)
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 <a href=BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 Ecmwf_15" />

2) Early-mid next week ( bounce  bounce  bounce  bounce  bounce )
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 <a href=BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 Euro_s10" />

3) last day or two of the month ( Thumbs up  Thumbs up )
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 <a href=BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 Ecmwf_16" />

Will any of these work out for your back yard or my back yard or any of our back yards is yet to be determined.  There is a chance that none of these threats work out, but cautious optimism is a must.

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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:42 am

add in the 6z dgex..
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 F108
track inside the benchmark
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:17 am

mjo for both systems now seem to be in phase 8 according to gfs an it's ensemble.
BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 Combphase_noCFSfull
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:04 am

I have heard from Frank that the dgex is a useless model, but then again these all seem to be falling into line. we just need a bit more push to the north (not too much as do not want warm air (don't know if this would be an issue) but enough to get the precip closer.  The Euro snow map (the first 25th, 27th was a decent hit) was a kick in the balls for HV all way down to just north of NYC as there is a big scoop out of that whole area with no snow, all west, south ands east. CT really gets hammered.
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Post by carvin1079 Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:10 am

A lot of hinting at the 25th best chance I think only the new g.f.s have the storm off coast most are hits

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:24 am

Incoming, or very close! Everything is trending North and west, this is great.

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 Gfs_pr12
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Post by algae888 Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:24 am

12z GFS is a nice hit for us on my phone so can't post maps but came further north and west
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:25 am

Done Al, LOL, I will post next frame once it comes in.
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Post by crippo84 Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:27 am

12z GFS is knocking on the door for the 24th...

BLOG: Next 2-3 Weeks Will Determine Fate Of Winter - Page 4 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f105


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Post by sabamfa Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:37 am

So this would possibly be a Saturday storm? What time might it start?

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:38 am

Looks like coast gets hammered on that run
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Post by Quietace Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:38 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Looks like coast gets hammered on that run
Yes.....clobbered

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Post by Sunflowers138 Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:53 am

How much "clobbered" for us long islanders? Give me a hint at a number! I'm dying for some snow over here!!!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:02 pm

Verbatim LI doesn't really get into it its a sharp cut off, NJ gets it good though southern, hopefully this pulls a bit more north, but then would bwe have mixing or rain issues? That is one serious storm, if it can intensify sooner, to that 966mb that it has once its past us that would probably keep the cold in even if it got much closer.
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:07 pm

Quietace wins, what else is new?

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:10 pm

Math, so true, thank goodness its still almost 5 days out, lots of time to get us all good! Come on I have the power to change this sucker lol, the later storm on the GFS still OTS.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:13 pm

I mean look at how close that is to get us all on the southern areas, dunno bout you way up there in HV, but I could see this go far enough north to get LI, NYC and Westchester and CT (southern).

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