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Ice Storm- Apology

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:18 pm

I should have realized the ice threat today and put out advanced notice on the forum. I forgot who but someone even mentioned the freezing rain threat to me the other day but I kind of brushed it off saying it won't last longer then an hour. There were numerous accidents everywhere today with road closures due to ice and flash flooding. The storm overall was under played by many Meteorologists and some people in Philly area even lost their lives. A tragic day to be honest and I really feel like it was kind of obvious this could have happened since temps the last few days have been very cold. Storms like these help forecasters get better, but it comes with the expense of people getting injured. I know some people will say this is unnecessary but it's been bothering me all day. Now let's focus on the upcoming week...

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I should have realized the ice threat today and put out advanced notice on the forum. I forgot who but someone even mentioned the freezing rain threat to me the other day but I kind of brushed it off saying it won't last longer then an hour. There were numerous accidents everywhere today with road closures due to ice and flash flooding. The storm overall was under played by many Meteorologists and some people in Philly area even lost their lives. A tragic day to be honest and I really feel like it was kind of obvious this could have happened since temps the last few days have been very cold. Storms like these help forecasters get better, but it comes with the expense of people getting injured. I know some people will say this is unnecessary but it's been bothering me all day. Now let's focus on the upcoming week...

Ice storms are one of the most tricky weather events to nail down -- and often catch METS by surprise. You're right, it is sad & we can only hope we learn from days like today.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:26 pm

Frank, like you said, always a learning experience. No one seemed concerned with icing since precip was coming up from the south with supposedly warmer temps. I am up to 35° just in the last hour, stayed at 33° most of the day, totally unexpected.

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I should have realized the ice threat today and put out advanced notice on the forum. I forgot who but someone even mentioned the freezing rain threat to me the other day but I kind of brushed it off saying it won't last longer then an hour. There were numerous accidents everywhere today with road closures due to ice and flash flooding. The storm overall was under played by many Meteorologists and some people in Philly area even lost their lives. A tragic day to be honest and I really feel like it was kind of obvious this could have happened since temps the last few days have been very cold. Storms like these help forecasters get better, but it comes with the expense of people getting injured. I know some people will say this is unnecessary but it's been bothering me all day. Now let's focus on the upcoming week...

Franky, I hear you and I can empathize with you since the 85 + people I forecast for at school, friends etc I too let down. No one knew the low level cold would be so stubborn this time an
Kd these are the hardest forecasts. Now that you have said your peace your and I mean this the entire nj strong weather family supports you. You are a fantastick met and all 600 of us confide in you. We live and learn kid. Heck, look at how the NHC and NWS blew Sandy. Now lets nail down what we all have fn been waiting for this winter a SNOWSTORM!!!
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:48 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:The 0Z RGEM suggests freezing rain Sunday morning before changing over the plain (heavy) rain.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t423p15-sunday-january-18th-rain-storm

I brought up the possibility of freezing rain Friday night. HOWEVER I did NOT think it would be as bad as it was today, especially as temperatures in some areas hit the freezing mark by yesterday evening. Even where I was it was kind of slick to start and at work we had to get the rock salt for the sidewalk, something that caught me off guard. As someone mentioned earlier, it's a good thing today was not a school day.

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:52 pm

frank you did the best you can. all guidance pointed overwhelmingly to a rain storm. your heartfelt apology says a lot about you. that you really care. there are very few mets who will admit they were wrong (not nws) but it's not because they care it's more about their reputation. I even subscribe to one of them. what people and mets do not understand is the passion all of us on here have about the weather. there are a few mets who mock us but if they had the passion with the degree they would be much more effective. as for me I trust you and others on here more than any other weather outlet. now it's on to the next storm and keep up the good work.
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:09 pm

Apologize for what!! Anyone with even a little common sense should have realized after a week of super cold temperatures that rain especially early on would probably freeze.

You're a great kid. Not your fault that the cold air hung on even longer. Chin up!

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Post by Pauledangerously Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:22 pm

NWS should be the ones apologizing not you. Thank God this happened on a Sunday morning and not on a weekday. It would of been an even bigger disaster. I was in shock myself this morning seeing all the ice. Keep up the good work Frankoni.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:23 pm

Frank, the weather is always going to throw a mean curveball at you and this storm surely was one of them.I understand your feelings about not seeing the severe icing but nobody in the pro met world saw it either.Winter storms are notorious for last minute changes and no amount of scientific analysis can figure that out.You are the most accurate Met I have ever known and you should be proud of your record.

Now, let's all roll up our sleeves and do as Mugsy says.....let's get a nice snowstorm up here.
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:39 pm

@Pauledangerously wrote:NWS should be the ones apologizing not you. Thank God this happened on a Sunday morning and not on a weekday. It would of been an even bigger disaster. I was in shock myself this morning seeing all the ice. Keep up the good work Frankoni.

That is a excellent point cause if it was a workday MADONNE 1000 x over - jesus there would have been lawsuits brought against the nws like they did in Italy and convicted the six scientist a few years back.

Keep your chin up as Doc says kid and lets get thi s next one and so on and so forth!

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Post by Guest Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:42 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Pauledangerously wrote:NWS should be the ones apologizing not you. Thank God this happened on a Sunday morning and not on a weekday. It would of been an even bigger disaster. I was in shock myself this morning seeing all the ice. Keep up the good work Frankoni.

That is a excellent point cause if it was a workday MADONNE 1000 x over - jesus there would have been lawsuits brought against the nws like they did in Italy and convicted the six scientist a few years back.

Keep your chin up as Doc says kid and lets get thi s next one and so on and so forth!

Actually with Frank's Italian ancestry we could bring him up on charges also right!

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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:55 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@Pauledangerously wrote:NWS should be the ones apologizing not you. Thank God this happened on a Sunday morning and not on a weekday. It would of been an even bigger disaster. I was in shock myself this morning seeing all the ice. Keep up the good work Frankoni.

That is a excellent point cause if it was a workday MADONNE 1000 x over - jesus there would have been lawsuits brought against the nws like they did in Italy and convicted the six scientist a few years back.

Keep your chin up as Doc says kid and lets get thi s next one and so on and so forth!

Actually with Frank's Italian ancestry we could bring him up on charges also right!

Frank, if they ever bring you up on charges, just Google Frankie Pantangeli and watch that court scene from the Godfather.Deny EVERYTHING!!!!!,LOL!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 6:28 pm

LMAO, you guys are a trip.

And yea getting things as accurate as possible does mean a lot to me. Just part of who I am. Anyway, will be back for 00z runs tonight. Hopefully the positive trends we saw with the clipper continue.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 18, 2015 8:29 pm

I narrowly avoided a major collision and possibly injury or death today. Therr is a road that is hilly that slopes down to a stop sign at a junction of a highly trafficed road. As i went down the hill and began to brake the car slid forward not losing any momentun because it was all black ice i couldnt see, looked wet. As i drifted into the intersection a car was coming going around 50 not more than a few hundred feet away, i jerked the steering wheel to the left and my car hit the edge of the curb and stopped just feet away from the oncoming car who didnt have enough time to react. Luckily no car damage and no accident. Very close, do not drive tonjght they did a piss poor job of treating roads.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 8:33 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I narrowly avoided a major collision and possibly injury or death today. Therr is a road that is hilly that slopes down to a stop sign at a junction of a highly trafficed road. As i went down the hill and began to brake the car slid forward not losing any momentun because it was all black ice i couldnt see, looked wet. As i drifted into the intersection a car was coming going around 50 not more than a few hundred feet away, i jerked the steering wheel to the left and my car hit the edge of the curb and stopped just feet away from the oncoming car who didnt have enough time to react. Luckily no car damage and no accident. Very close, do not drive tonjght they did a piss poor job of treating roads.

Wow man. That happened to me once but there was no car coming in the intersection. Glad you avoided collision. Ice is no joke. Awful

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 18, 2015 8:44 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I narrowly avoided a major collision and possibly injury or death today. Therr is a road that is hilly that slopes down to a stop sign at a junction of a highly trafficed road. As i went down the hill and began to brake the car slid forward not losing any momentun because it was all black ice i couldnt see, looked wet. As i drifted into the intersection a car was coming going around 50 not more than a few hundred feet away, i jerked the steering wheel to the left and my car hit the edge of the curb and stopped just feet away from the oncoming car who didnt have enough time to react. Luckily no car damage and no accident. Very close, do not drive tonjght they did a piss poor job of treating roads.

Wow man. That happened to me once but there was no car coming in the intersection. Glad you avoided collision. Ice is no joke. Awful
Apparently at least 5 people died around here tonight, horrible.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 18, 2015 8:46 pm

Also apparently a 30-50 car crash on 76 right outside of philly, geez
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:07 pm

News said over 400 accidents reported by state police
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:29 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I narrowly avoided a major collision and possibly injury or death today. Therr is a road that is hilly that slopes down to a stop sign at a junction of a highly trafficed road. As i went down the hill and began to brake the car slid forward not losing any momentun because it was all black ice i couldnt see, looked wet. As i drifted into the intersection a car was coming going around 50 not more than a few hundred feet away, i jerked the steering wheel to the left and my car hit the edge of the curb and stopped just feet away from the oncoming car who didnt have enough time to react. Luckily no car damage and no accident. Very close, do not drive tonjght they did a piss poor job of treating roads.

Holy Crow, Tom,that must have scared the crap out of you! ThankGod you are ok.Your number wasn't up, friend.

In 1995 ,I was driving up Route 17 in Upper Saddle River NJ in a light snow event, maybe 1 inch on the road.I was half drunk (stupid thing to do) going 50 MPH up a hill when the car just started to do 360 degree spins, hitting the divider.The gas switched off but a tow truck guy got it going so i could limp home.Lucky for me it was late with little traffic.Normally many big rig trucks and tankers there.I used up a life that night.To this day,I try to avoid driving in any ice or snow.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:49 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:I narrowly avoided a major collision and possibly injury or death today. Therr is a road that is hilly that slopes down to a stop sign at a junction of a highly trafficed road. As i went down the hill and began to brake the car slid forward not losing any momentun because it was all black ice i couldnt see, looked wet. As i drifted into the intersection a car was coming going around 50 not more than a few hundred feet away, i jerked the steering wheel to the left and my car hit the edge of the curb and stopped just feet away from the oncoming car who didnt have enough time to react. Luckily no car damage and no accident. Very close, do not drive tonjght they did a piss poor job of treating roads.

Holy Crow, Tom,that must have scared the crap out of you! ThankGod you are ok.Your number wasn't up, friend.

In 1995 ,I was driving up Route 17 in Upper Saddle River NJ in a light snow event, maybe 1 inch on the road.I was half drunk (stupid thing to do) going 50 MPH up a hill when the car just started to do 360 degree spins, hitting the divider.The gas switched off but a tow truck guy got it going so i could limp home.Lucky for me it was late with little traffic.Normally many big rig trucks and tankers there.I used up a life that night.To this day,I try to avoid driving in any ice or snow.
Yea, this was the first time i felt like i was very close to death, luckily i was able to manuever the car into that curb or i could have been done for, there was another car right behind him too. Would have been me t boned on the drivers side then the other car would have collided with us too. Very scary feeling helplessly drifting down an icy hill with near nothing to do, i will never look at ice storms the same again, never do i want that to occur to anyone anywhere.
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