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Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 7:37 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:This what I don't get we had a partial phase and then I remember hearing we were close to a full phase
We need more northern stream energy to really turn it into a monster AND also inject cold air into the system.
IMO, if we don't see that by 12Z today, that's off the table.
Even so, based on current setup, it could be something like 1-2" to rain and then 3-5" after the rain, depending on how things shake.
Only wish we could lock up the GFS for Mon-Tue lol.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:11 am

Unfort it is easier said than done when a storm with this kind of potential is scheduled to hit to seriously step back from the frame by frame, run by run analysis in order to know what's truly going on.  Of coarse its easier said than done and I am as guilty as the next guy or gal.  I get so caught up in each run, and the frame by frame play by play, and trying to figure out how this run is different from the last run from that same time frame, etc, I forget to look at some of the bigger picture ideas that have been becoming more and more consistent for the past 2days which will ultimately will tell you how it all goes down.

What do we know:
1) a very potent system is currently building in the south along the Gulf Coast gathering energy thanks to the wam waters of the GOM.  
2) This southern stream system is very consistently being modeled to turn up the coast where a surface LP center develops and and exits the EC around Cape Hatteras or maybe just N.(MILLER A) 
3) As it exits the coast it begins its journey N to NE towards the BM  (40N lat, 70W Long) +/- .  While doing so it begins to undergo rapid intensification

These are all good things for Snow in the NE, HOWVER, these are also things we know which are not so good things:
4) Throughout this journey there has never been a HP modeled to our north to act as a fresh cold air supply as our system intensifies towards the BM
5) There has never been a 50/50 Low modeled (LP centered around 50N Lat; 50W Long).
6) There is a neutral NAO to maybe a weak east based -NAO

So what does this all mean?  
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 8 <a href=Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 8 Ecmwf_18" />
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 8 <a href=Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 8 Ecmwf_19" />
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 8 <a href=Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 8 Ecmwf_20" />

So unfortunately as is being depicted by the Euro and most other models there is an initial surge of warm air into the mid layers which leads to a change to rain/sleet/slop along the coastal plain and possibly for a brief time a bit further inland.  Keep in mind the freezing line on the 850mb chart is going to be the approximate R/S line +/- 10miles or so.  
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 8 <a href=Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 8 Ecmwf_21" />

But 6hrs later you can see the 850's crashing the coast as the LP center hits the BM.
Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 8 <a href=Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 8 Untitl10" />

6hrs after that is when 500mb closes off see image above and the 850's really tank.  So you can see timing of the northern stream interaction with the southern stream 6hrs earlier would make a HUGE difference in the timing of the mid layers going back to cold.  

IMHO this interaction B/W N and S is going to be too late for the coastal plain to see wide spread MECS status(6-12+, or Godzilla status(12+), but it is still only Thursday morning and timing difference are not off by much for that to still change.  Of course that also means they could trend the other direction and interact 6hrs later making things even worse.  The precip cutoffs in the NW Quadrant due to the factors I outlined above MAY be the reason why by friends to the N and W would miss out on Gozilla status.  To me a SECS (wide spread3-6") is still likely for most of us and a mecs is by no means off the table for anyone yet at this point, but I do think that mixing issues will plague the coast which is a shame because that is where the highest QPF should fall.


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:20 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Taffy Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:16 am

sroc, This. Thank you. I was a member of the old board and I try very hard to understand what is going on. Janet gave me a primer link and I have begun to understand the basics. This was perfectly broken down and I understood everything you stated. Again, thanks.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:18 am

@Taffy wrote:sroc,  This.   Thank you. I was a member of the old board and I try very hard to understand what is going on. Janet gave me a primer link and I have begun to understand the basics. This was perfectly broken down and I understood everything you stated. Again, thanks.

You bet!!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:20 am

Whats funny is Mr.G was talking about rain mixing in...and i was laughing saying how everyone else was saying nothing like that. Mr.G still hasn't lost his touch
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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:42 am

Surprises that could help us get more snow with this storm:

1) The storm bombs out earlier. Right now, most model solutions say the storm won't really get cranking until it gets to our latitude, when most of the precipitation is finished. We need it to bomb out about 100 miles further south. If this happens, the dynamics will crank in coincident with the heavy precip and mitigate any changeover. Can this happen? Yes, it's not unusual for models to be off with timing and location, even as the event is underway.

2) This does not necessarily help for snow, but could keep us frozen. Models tend to underdo low level cold air and scour it out too fast. Even though we really don't have a cold air source, i.e. high pressure to the North, as long as the storm stays to our East, winds will be NE/NNE. Even without a great cold air source, it's January and it's colder to our North. This could serve to have us change over to freezing rain instead of rain, which would create bigger problems. We saw this last Sunday- despite no real cold high, cold air stayed in longer and as a result, more freezing rain than forecast. This actually has a high chance of happening, since it happens frequently.
3) A surprise full phase. Although most of the data has been sampled, there is still a small portion that has not been sampled. If this changes and the models show a full phase, the storm will be bigger, deeper, and colder, and as a result, a lot more snow. However, the chance of this happening is very low.
4) And this applies to the front end only- overrunning precipitation starts earlier. This would allow heavier precip to fall earlier when the air is still colder, and thus, more snow, at least on the front end. There's a decent chance of this happening, since models tend do underdo both the start time and intensity of overrunning precipitation. This was a key to the ice Sunday morning.

Factors against a heavy snow event:

1) Fast movement- although I don't usually give this much credence, because fast movers can dump large amounts of precip in shorter times. (Keep in mind, dry slots and lulls move faster, too). But in general, fast movement keeps precip totals down, at least a bit.

2) NO high to the north. This storm is coming at a bad time, since there really isn't a high to the north to draw down cold air. But at least it isn't moving into a real warm air mass and it will track east of the area, maintaining NE/NNE surface winds.

Wild cards:

These wild cards exist before most storms. First, where will the dry slots set up? This may be even more important in a storm like this, since we'll be relying on heavy precip to keep the column cold enough. Whoever dry slots longer not only loses precipitation, but also warms the column.

Can the overrunning precip overperform? If this can happen, we can get a nice surprise at the beginning of the storm. As mentioned, models generally underestimate the start time and intensity of overunning precip.

Who will get lucky and get "comma head" snows longer? This applies to the back side of the storm, but whoever sits under the comma head will get more backend snows.

When Will the storm "bomb out"? As modeled, we're right on the edge of the good bombing process. If this can shift south to the Delmarva area, we'll likely get a lot more precip and a colder system resulting in more snow, and possibly blizzard conditions. But what if the models bust in the other direction? What if the storm doesn't bomb out until it gets to Nantucket? Well, then we might get a sloppy mess without much precipitation.

Unfortunately, we won't know a lot about these wild cards until the storm gets almost underway and we're more in the range of the high-res models.

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:44 am

sroc4 Great write up and analysis. This is what the NWS and others on here and not have been saying for 3 full days now. Why then was there such delirious optimism and forecasts yesterday from people?

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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:45 am

syosnow94 wrote:sroc4 Great write up and analysis.  This is what the NWS and others on here and not have been saying for 3 full days now.  Why then was there such delirious optimism and forecasts yesterday from people?

Probably based on the EURO from yesterday 12Z which was basically a 10-14" paste job for everyone west of the Hudson River.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:49 am

syosnow94 wrote:sroc4 Great write up and analysis.  This is what the NWS and others on here and not have been saying for 3 full days now.  Why then was there such delirious optimism and forecasts yesterday from people?

Because it's the first time since Novemer that we have had this kind of potential. I think our snow and cold bias were bleeding through clouding judgment ever so slightly myself included.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:53 am

@Analog96 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:sroc4 Great write up and analysis.  This is what the NWS and others on here and not have been saying for 3 full days now.  Why then was there such delirious optimism and forecasts yesterday from people?

Probably based on the EURO from yesterday 12Z which was basically a 10-14" paste job for everyone west of the Hudson River.

And this!!!! Ugg

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:25 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@Analog96 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:sroc4 Great write up and analysis.  This is what the NWS and others on here and not have been saying for 3 full days now.  Why then was there such delirious optimism and forecasts yesterday from people?

Probably based on the EURO from yesterday 12Z which was basically a 10-14" paste job for everyone west of the Hudson River.

And this!!!!  Ugg

Agreed. Than you for your honesty. This is why I was posting the other day to talk to me on Thursday when we're within 48 hours. For once I didn't allow myself to fully buy in so I'm not overly disappointed this morning. I'm pissed off cause it looks like we're getting screwed again, but I expected it. At this point it's comical the way these storms verify.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:41 am

Dont throw in the towel yet

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Philliesfan Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:44 am

sroc, thank you for your analysis this am about what we know and don't know. Very helpful. And thank you and Frank for all the hard work you put in on all these storms.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:46 am

Great write ups by both Scott and Greg this morning. Very nice to read. There is a lot going against for a big storm on Saturday, but a light to moderate event can not be ruled out. If people are going to be upset because they're not getting a 12+ inch snowfall, then maybe they'll finally realize how difficult it is to actually get one. A lot needs to go right. For this system, there is a lot going wrong but there's some favorable aspects as well.

In today's model runs, I full expect to see a storm along the BM. The question becomes how much does it deepen? That will determine precipitation types for many. Could be rain to snow event. Still up in the air at this point.

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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:49 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Great write ups by both Scott and Greg this morning. Very nice to read. There is a lot going against for a big storm on Saturday, but a light to moderate event can not be ruled out. If people are going to be upset because they're not getting a 12+ inch snowfall, then maybe they'll finally realize how difficult it is to actually get one. A lot needs to go right. For this system, there is a lot going wrong but there's some favorable aspects as well.

In today's model runs, I full expect to see a storm along the BM. The question becomes how much does it deepen? That will determine precipitation types for many. Could be rain to snow event. Still up in the air at this point.

I wouldn't say it's fully impossible to get the 12" type solution, but we need an early bombing and no dry slot, sort of like what the ECMWF showed yesterday.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:58 am

Guys, I hate to say this, but I think we can write this one off. Here's why:

This is a look at the 12z NAM, and I want you to specifically focus on the top-left panel, which is 500 hPa heights (contoured) and vorticity (shaded).
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/f36.gif

Throughout the progression of this event, notice how the majority of the vorticity (energy) is downstream (ahead) of the trough axis. This is not good. Think of being in a car going down a hill (think of this as the energy diving into a trough) with a sharp turn at the bottom. When you are headed into the turn from the top of the hill, you have to slow down because otherwise you will a) plaster yourself agains the door, which is rather uncomfortable, and b) possibly roll the car. In the atmosphere, this is expressed by the response of the trough to deepen (dig) further (south). The trough cannot lose the energy, so it must adjust in order to be able to keep that energy. By deepening, the trough axis changes its direction faster from "positively tilted" (think of an x-y graph with a line that has a "positive" slope) to neutral and eventually negative. This is what you typically see in a classic setup for East Coast Cyclogenesis. However, we do not have this. Instead, now picture yourself coming out of the turn while in the car (energy that is on the forward side of the axis; downstream): You are able to accelerate because the centripetal force is decreasing. In atmospheric interactions, the energy is allowed to "speed up" in a way too. It starts losing its balled-up organization and appearance (caused by the sharp nature of the trough itself), and starts to become sheared out (largely because it enters an area of confluence, or faster wind flow that "pull it away" from the trough). As a result, the trough instead of deepening, starts to "lift out" (accelerate, or progress through the pattern and weaken (de-amplify)). This is why we are seeing easterly solutions, and per latest 12z NAM, a much weaker surface cyclone. The flow is not remaining southerly, but is reorienting itself back to southwesterly which steers the cyclone further offshore. The weaker trough also limits the amount of upper-level support that the surface cyclone can harness. Now there are other factors at play, such as non-existent downstream blocking and no phase with northern stream energy that also play a role, but I feel that what I just described above is the most important piece to this puzzle. The energy is simply not where we need it to be.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:05 am

Great insight this morning from all, it is what it is, I can't say anymore to this. Seems like it may very well be a lot of nowcasting which can be exciting in and of itself. At this point less is ok, it is a difficult setup obviously with what I read. Maybe we get real lucky and it bombs sooner have seen this in the past but it is a wildcard, but hey I gamble on wildccards and have come home well : ) Lets see what today brings, FWIW the NAM is OTS, not posting it and frank glad you would divorce her shes not worth ur time lol
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:08 am

Wow rb, blunt but seems to make sense to me. So nothing Sat is your call? Talk about a LOT of back tracking on forecasts by pro-mets if that verifies.
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:08 am

Rb thanks for the explanation. the one thing the 12 z nam does is keep the event mainly snow as the 850 do not make it past New York City. however Qpf is between one quarter to three quarter inches from northwest to southeast so while we wouldn't have a major snowstorm three to six inch or 4 to 8 inch storm seems possible with little mixing north west of I 95. with everything that can go wrong I would take that in a heartbeat and move on to the Monday storm.
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:12 am

12Z RGEM is out. Moderate snow in NYC from 1 AM to 6 AM with a changeover to freezing rain by the end of its run at 7 AM.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:14 am

We def do not need freezing rain, but this is a dangerous possibility as outlined by NWS yesterday.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:26 am

12z RGEM would bring a moderate snowfall to the area, with ice issues as well. Like Mike stated

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:37 am

Moderate snowfall sounds fine, i'll take it, ice not so fun, get my skates out but will not drive to my appt. if there is ice. Are we talking all freezing rain or sleet too? Sleet isn't as much of a issue for me, but no one can drive safely on freezing rain. Still not set in stone, lets see what GFS and Euro show those will be big, but my hopes are humbled now and will take what I can get, hopefully its something.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:56 am

At hour 48 looks almost unchanged but the precip is further north and a bit west
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:59 am

Ugg the Euro is a hit but its rain! Its also further south, I do not get that the rain is WAY inland only maybe 50+ miles inland NY gets some snow, all of NJ CT LI NYC is rain.
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