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Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

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Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 9 Empty Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:03 am

Okay it appears the snow comes on the backside, not surprising, worried that rain period could be freezing rain, even though the model does not show that, that's a long period of rain. You mix any of thoe wind that may make it uinto the area with ice and we got a big problem, anyone have that chart posted a while back on effects from ice and the wind speeds?
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:09 am

Jman, I meant that I'm not believing a widespread major snowfall is going to happen. I think a minor to moderate event (1-3 northwest of I-95 and 3-5 or so around 95, hardly anything south and east of there) is much more likely now. That's all.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:11 am

And I just heard from the Weather Channel that the Hurricane Hunters are actually going to be doing reconnaissance flights into this thing.....interesting. I think the last time they did that was for Nemo?

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:14 am

I am not sure what this one means, its a teal flight, and a drop x10, have not seen that before, but expected to be different than a hurricane.

NOUS42 KNHC 221524
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030` AM EST THU 22 JANUARY 2015
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JANUARY 2015
WSPOD NUMBER.....14-053

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL XX
A. TRACK A65/ DROP 9(28.7N 76.6W)/ 24/0000Z
B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK65
C. 23/1915Z
D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 24/0200Z

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Post by devsman Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:19 am

So GFS came in wetter and warmer along the coast with other models following suit. Just hope icing isnt a factor. Rather it rain than ice.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:20 am

Looking at temps surface hover around freezing even at coast, I think icing going to be a major issue possibility, was that contradictory statement lol, you get what im saying.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:23 am

I have no idea, but here's my guess:

1. Name of Aircraft
A. Track Name/Identifying Label and Exact Time/Coordinates of Sonde Drop
B. Not even a guess for this one
C. Flight Start Time
D. ""
E. Altitude and Flight End Time


Last edited by rb924119 on Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:25 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:24 am

@jmanley32 wrote:I am not sure what this one means, its a teal flight, and a drop x10, have not seen that before, but expected to be different than a hurricane.

NOUS42 KNHC 221524
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030` AM EST THU 22 JANUARY 2015
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
        VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JANUARY 2015
        WSPOD NUMBER.....14-053

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL XX
      A. TRACK A65/ DROP 9(28.7N 76.6W)/ 24/0000Z
      B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK65
      C. 23/1915Z
      D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
      E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 24/0200Z



I have no idea, but here's my guess:

1. Name of Aircraft
A. Track Name/Identifying Label and Exact Time/Coordinates of Sonde Drop
B. Not even a guess for this one
C. Flight Start Time
D. ""
E. Altitude and Flight End Time

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Post by Artechmetals Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:24 am

Hey people , so is this storm likely not producing snow anymore or is it a borderline call?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:26 am

Upton NWS excerpt hence ice concern:

TEMPS ON SAT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR BEING MAINTAINED BY THE NLY FLOW.

HWO as of 4:42am

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL EMERGE FROM THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON SATURDAY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE DUE TO THE STORM TRACK.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:42 am

A major snowfall is off the table with this storm. The potential was definitely there, but it's not going to come together to support one. Instead...we'll be dealing with snow, rain/ice, and maybe snow again. Very tough forecast because determining when and if there's a change to rain will be the wild card.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:58 am

So what are we looking at possibly a 3-6 like NWS currently shows? And do u think freezing rain will be a minimal issue or possibly major, I know its very difficult and will probably change several more times before the day but just curious because I do have things to do sat, driving in snow no problem but ice hell no, its the other drivers I worry about.
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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:00 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So what are we looking at possibly a 3-6 like NWS currently shows? And do u think freezing rain will be a minimal issue or possibly major, I know its very difficult and will probably change several more times before the day but just curious because I do have things to do sat, driving in snow no problem but ice hell no, its the other drivers I worry about.

Freezing rain is certainly the wild card.

Already appears MOS guidance is two degrees or so colder than it was.. the entire column supports a quicker dump of snow to start, but as it changes to rain, there will likely be more cold air around than initially thought.

The surface doesn't like to warm up with a N wind in January and precipitation falling.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:23 pm

CMC has 2-6 the 5-6 being centered on a strip from jersey into NYC and yonkers and on east. At this point I will take it. At least its not completely gone.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:23 pm

And right on time, TWC has me in 90% all rain on Saturday with zero snow accumulation. Lol

Today's Euro will be telling...
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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:25 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:And right on time, TWC has me in 90% all rain on Saturday with zero snow accumulation. Lol

Today's Euro will be telling...

Why does anyone care what TWC says?

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:30 pm

@Analog96 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:And right on time, TWC has me in 90% all rain on Saturday with zero snow accumulation. Lol

Today's Euro will be telling...

Why does anyone care what TWC says?

To be honest, no one usually but when they've naysayed a storm all winter, they've ended up being right. So it does spook me a bit.
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Post by HectorO Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:31 pm

Never really had too much faith in this storm anyways. The temps never looked great for the storm. No matter what model came out, the temps just didn't look favorable. Monday definitely has the cold to support an event.
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:34 pm

Hope this comes to fruition - I will gladly take 4-6"

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 9 Post-33-0-92055200-1421946991

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:39 pm

@HectorO wrote:Never really had too much faith in this storm anyways. The temps never looked great for the storm. No matter what model came out, the temps just didn't look favorable. Monday definitely has the cold to support an event.

If we could just get the close off to happen six hours sooner this baby could cool her own air. This is just looking less and less likely compared to yesterday. Monday on the other hand...
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:56 pm

Euro at hour 30 is deeper at H5

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:57 pm

Slightly faster through 36

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:58 pm

@HectorO wrote:Never really had too much faith in this storm anyways. The temps never looked great for the storm. No matter what model came out, the temps just didn't look favorable. Monday definitely has the cold to support an event.

Ahh Hector, I guess if you say the right things at the right time you can never be wrong eh?

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:59 pm

Bill Evans just put a major downer. Ice mix for awhile 0.6" snow over 1" rain.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:59 pm

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 9 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f45

12z EURO showing moderate snow Saturday morning

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