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Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

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Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 10 Empty Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:59 pm

Rain for SNJ...still snow for NNJ/NYC

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 10 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f48

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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:00 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Rain for SNJ...still snow for NNJ/NYC

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 10 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f48

That frame is sleet in Union County, most likely.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:01 pm

WOW

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 10 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:02 pm

Looks like snow to ice (maybe some rain) back to snow for NNJ/NYC...CNJ sees some rain...SNJ mostly rain

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:02 pm

Backside of the Euro is even drier than before. North and west of 95 gets SCREWED by virga on this run

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Post by HectorO Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:05 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@HectorO wrote:Never really had too much faith in this storm anyways. The temps never looked great for the storm. No matter what model came out, the temps just didn't look favorable. Monday definitely has the cold to support an event.

Ahh Hector, I guess if you say the right things at the right time you can never be wrong eh?  

I've said things plenty time in advance. I just get crucified for it, so I tend to keep my words to myself sometimes. I hardly said anything about this storm because nothing stood out to me really.
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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:06 pm

Wow, almost all frozen and heavy on the Euro.

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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:07 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Backside of the Euro is even drier than before. North and west of 95 gets SCREWED by virga on this run
How can you tell that's virga based on the maps that Frank posted?

Backside precip is almost never virga, because the column is already saturated by previously falling precipitation.

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:08 pm

@Analog96 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:And right on time, TWC has me in 90% all rain on Saturday with zero snow accumulation. Lol

Today's Euro will be telling...

Why does anyone care what TWC says?

Usually don't but they've been right a lot this winter.

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:09 pm

Euro looks like GGEM for a good front end thump of snow and then over to ice ice baby - lovely - low level cold I think hangs tough at 2M and casues us in NNJ issues

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:11 pm

Some back end light snow - if it can crash faster we may see a quicker change over and add .5-1.5" IMO to those accumulations - verbatim as per the model output

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 10 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f60

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:13 pm

@Analog96 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Backside of the Euro is even drier than before. North and west of 95 gets SCREWED by virga on this run
How can you tell that's virga based on the maps that Frank posted?

Backside precip is almost never virga, because the column is already saturated by previously falling precipitation.

I was referring to well north and west. And the reason I said that is because you can see how the western edge erodes rapidly within a six hour window even though the low is rapidly strengthening. There's gonna be too much subsidence I think for anything really measurable to accumulate, say, northwest of 287. There may be flurries or a short period of very light snow, but I am not really counting on that atm.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:29 pm

looks like verbatim NYC and just north and west get 3-6 NYC and suburbs being bullseye, even a 6 inch spot in LI, Eastern CT sees 6-10.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:31 pm

What a unbelievable trend in the other direction, BUT it was always on the table that this could happen and Frank , sroc and others never wavered on this. Feeling better today, 3-6 (and I think 6 for me is a decent bet but I worry could be some big ice in spots) and I will take it and run, onto Monday, yet Euro shows little to nothing for that.
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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:41 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:What a unbelievable trend in the other direction, BUT it was always on the table that this could happen and Frank , sroc and others never wavered on this.  Feeling better today, 3-6 (and I think 6 for me is a decent bet but I worry could be some big ice in spots) and I will take it and run, onto Monday, yet Euro shows little to nothing for that.

Umm the Euro shows 36 hours of light to moderate snow.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:42 pm

well then there is something seriously wrong with the snow map on wxbell because it doesn't add anything, come to think of it doesn't add to qpf either, maybe a glitch. southern areas do well.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:23 pm

Very dry storm on the western side for the stregnth, ugh.
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Post by jimv45 Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:31 pm

Haven't been writing from some time but been checking in on this great site! Just checked in with buddy in Albany not good news when it comes to snow!  This weekends storm where its cold enough in our area there will be not much in terms of precipitation and where it does make it there will be more rain then snow boy!  Now Monday i was told it will not be a big deal what a Winter!!!!!!! Cp your up near me it looks like the storm before Thanksgiving might be our best i always said if we get snowstorm to early it kills the winter will see.

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Post by HectorO Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:54 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Haven't been writing from some time but been checking in on this great site! Just checked in with buddy in Albany not good news when it comes to snow!  This weekends storm where its cold enough in our area there will be not much in terms of precipitation and where it does make it there will be more rain then snow boy!  Now Monday i was told it will not be a big deal what a Winter!!!!!!! Cp your up near me it looks like the storm before Thanksgiving might be our best i always said if we get snowstorm to early it kills the winter will see.

I always thought by early it was more like October. I've seen snow events in November and still had a productive winter.
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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:54 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Haven't been writing from some time but been checking in on this great site! Just checked in with buddy in Albany not good news when it comes to snow!  This weekends storm where its cold enough in our area there will be not much in terms of precipitation and where it does make it there will be more rain then snow boy!  Now Monday i was told it will not be a big deal what a Winter!!!!!!! Cp your up near me it looks like the storm before Thanksgiving might be our best i always said if we get snowstorm to early it kills the winter will see.
How did that work out in 1995?

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Post by jimv45 Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:07 pm

I should have said sometimes it kills the winter and yes BEFORE THANKSGIVING is early in my books!

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:10 pm

I think there are surprises in store for this storm.  Nothing crazy but remember you have to smell the rain to get the heavy snow.  N Shore LI needs to watch closely.  And no global model will show it.  Watch the short range guidance starting late friday.  Im not talking about wide spread surprises, but I would be willing to bet some of us on here will see surprise accum.  

Look at that sliver of -1* 850MB temps over LI separate from the main 0*C line N and W of NYC.  This is as the center of the LP is on the BM and at 985mb and continuing bombogenisis because 6hrs later its 975mb.  That has shown up on several runs.  That is where the heaviest precip rates are falling.  If strong CCB bands set up right a change over may not occur or only occur for a short time in places and for people who are currently throwing in the towel.  

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 10 <a href=Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 10 Ecmwf_22" />

Its only THURSDAY.  Look what happened with our clipper.  Just saying.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:24 pm

Interestingly enough I just checked the EURO ensembles, an they are still insisting on a 4-8 inch snow from southwest of Philly thorough NYC and into Boston.

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Post by Scullybutcher Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:28 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I think there are surprises in store for this storm.  Nothing crazy but remember you have to smell the rain to get the heavy snow.  N Shore LI needs to watch closely.  And no global model will show it.  Watch the short range guidance starting late friday.  Im not talking about wide spread surprises, but I would be willing to bet some of us on here will see surprise accum.  

Look at that sliver of -1* 850MB temps over LI separate from the main 0*C line N and W of NYC.  This is as the center of the LP is on the BM and at 985mb and continuing bombogenisis because 6hrs later its 975mb.  That has shown up on several runs.  That is where the heaviest precip rates are falling.  If strong CCB bands set up right a change over may not occur or only occur for a short time in places and for people who are currently throwing in the towel.  

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 10 <a href=Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 10 Ecmwf_22" />

Its only THURSDAY.  Look what happened with our clipper.  Just saying.

That's why I love the north shore. We always seem to get more. Hope your analysis pans out
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:32 pm

winter storm watch now up for most of connecticut for 5 to 7 inches of snow in the 10th of an inch of ice. have a feeling it will be extended southwest towards us
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