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Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:49 pm

That's a horriblemap if that verify
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:49 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:For the mid level trough to go neutral faster. That would raise heights along the EC and bring a storm track to the BM.
Got you Frank thanks I will be on edge like everyone else waiting
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:50 pm

Frank great analysis again and the gfs bias is at play s&e. Just look at this wekends storm where it was ots and then 36 hours before brought it west like the Euro. I do not discount the gfs but it never has handled the southern stream storms well the Euro does.

Quick questo on today's clipper was to bomb out up by newfoundland and be a 50/50 low for us but from what you are saying it is pulling a fast one and exiting right.

A couple more runs by the Euro and if and I suspect it will hold we are in business.

IF we had the 50/50 block then MOMMA MIA peeps we are talking BECS cause there would have been a full phase somewhere off the demarcation or VA capes imo

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:53 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Nutley   What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:54 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@oldtimer wrote:Nutley   What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.

I'm same exact way. It's weird. Yay, I'm not alone.

00z NAM is broken! My wish has come true!!!,

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Post by Analog96 Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:58 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@oldtimer wrote:Nutley   What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.

I'm same exact way. It's weird. Yay, I'm not alone.

00z NAM is broken! My wish has come true!!!,

LOL by the time this storm comes on Saturday, I'll be tracking the Miller B for Mon-Tue and potential long range Groundhog Day system.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:04 pm

Not on wxbell it isn't lol, you care to know or not? I would guess not. I have seen thunder snow and sleet. Last year I do not recall the date but it was a crqzy mix of snow sleet rain and flooding, lots of lightning. When I was a kid it scared living daylights out of me in the daytime playing in the snow. And a few times when I used to go to MA a lot.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:16 pm

Thunder snow Feb7/8 2013 NEMO! Along with 29" beautiful inches of the white gold.

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:21 pm

[quote="Analog96"]
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@oldtimer wrote:Nutley   What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.

I'm same exact way. It's weird. Yay, I'm not alone.

00z NAM is broken! My wish has come true!!!,

LOL by the time this storm comes on Saturday, I'll be tracking the Miller B for Mon-Tue and potential long range Groundhog Day system.[/quote

Mjo going showing a wave near or at the dateline from the jan 28 to feb 3 timeframe which would support east coast storms and cold during that time frame as well almost brutal cold

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:21 pm

Oh good gracious lets hope for the first, the second would be a disaster and sunday would seemed like nothing.

NWS HWO for my area:

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COASTAL STORM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN EITHER
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION...OR SIGNIFICANT ICING
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:22 pm

@Analog96 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@oldtimer wrote:Nutley   What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.

I'm same exact way. It's weird. Yay, I'm not alone.

00z NAM is broken! My wish has come true!!!,

LOL by the time this storm comes on Saturday, I'll be tracking the Miller B for Mon-Tue and potential long range Groundhog Day system.[/quote

Mjo going showing a wave near or at the dateline from the jan 28 to feb 3 timeframe which would support east coast storms and cold during that time frame as well almost brutal cold

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by RJB8525 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:24 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Oh good gracious lets hope for the first, the second would be a disaster and sunday would seemed like nothing.

NWS HWO for my area:

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COASTAL STORM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN EITHER
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION...OR SIGNIFICANT ICING
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

nothing scares me more than ice
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:27 pm

The Gulf is going to be a big player in organizing this storm. Keep in mind the initial phase will occur tomorrow morning near AZ. The mid-level trough containing the H5 vort will be fueled by the southerly flow off the Gulf. On the surface, there's going to be an expansive precip. field and where there is a cluster of convection is likely where the surface low develops. As long as the H5 energy doesn't elongate itself ahead of the trough, there will be a potent surface low coming up the coast given the ridge-trough orientation.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:27 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@oldtimer wrote:Nutley   What you said, doesn't it make it all exciting to follow this biggie?? Wow
As strange as it sounds from my personal experience, when there is a threat of an impending snowstorm, I get more of a rise tracking it and having baited breath with each model run that comes out, then when the storm finally arrives, its more of a satisfied feeling. By the way the SREFS came west.

You are normal, for this Forum, and among friends.

I call it the Christmas morning syndrome. As kids we all love the buildup for the days leading up to Christmas morning, unless of course we're non Chrisitian, and then in five minutes it's over and the letdown starts.

We are all adults that never outgrew that.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:27 pm

Don't go on youtube and search crashes from sunday then, then you will be really traumatized. But I do not buy a ice storm, I just do not see how and trust in what Frank has stated tonight.
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Post by Analog96 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:29 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The Gulf is going to be a big player in organizing this storm. Keep in mind the initial phase will occur tomorrow morning near AZ. The mid-level trough containing the H5 vort will be fueled by the southerly flow off the Gulf. On the surface, there's going to be an expansive precip. field and where there is a cluster of convection is likely where the surface low develops. As long as the H5 energy doesn't elongate itself ahead of the trough, there will be a potent surface low coming up the coast given the ridge-trough orientation.

All guidance is showing a very deep low, it depends on where they track it, but even the GFS eventually gets this thing into the 970s.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:37 pm

NAM is slower with the southern stream and way more organized than the GFS......I think we may see a phase with this run.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:39 pm

@rb924119 wrote:NAM is slower with the southern stream and way more organized than the GFS......I think we may see a phase with this run.

Im out to hr 54...it looks like we are already starting with N stream interaction

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Post by Analog96 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:40 pm

Hr 57 1003 just W of HAT, light snow up to about I 195

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:40 pm

One second we hate the NAM but when its nice we love it lol
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:40 pm

Look at the consolidation at the base of the trough

[img]Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 2 Nam_z510[/img]

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Post by carvin1079 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:41 pm

So anywhere from 2 to 4 or hecs, mecs, or becs, wow very big spread I fold now nyc 7+

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Post by Analog96 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:42 pm

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 2 ?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015012200&fh=63&xpos=0&ypos=80

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:43 pm

The NAM is strung out, and doesnt deepen, im out to hr. 66, not looking good to me.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:43 pm

Image didn't show analog

LP passing S E of MB on this run

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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