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Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

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Post by Quietace Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:35 pm

12z NAM is probably 2-4 Area wide. The surface is maxing out around 33-34 degrees while precipitation is still in the area after 850s rise above 0C

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Post by RJB8525 Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:36 pm

NOAA local forecast in text.

Saturday: Snow likely before noon, then rain and snow. High near 35. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Calm wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 11 StormTotalSnowRange
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:42 pm

Don't like the fact Upton issued a WSW for only part of the area but excluded most of us.

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:05 pm

UPTON just lowered snow fall totals for alllllll of us. On my phone so I can't post map.
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:13 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:UPTON just lowered snow fall totals for alllllll of us. On my phone so I can't post map.

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 11 StormTotalSnowFcst-1
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Post by docstox12 Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:29 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I think there are surprises in store for this storm.  Nothing crazy but remember you have to smell the rain to get the heavy snow.  N Shore LI needs to watch closely.  And no global model will show it.  Watch the short range guidance starting late friday.  Im not talking about wide spread surprises, but I would be willing to bet some of us on here will see surprise accum.  

Look at that sliver of -1* 850MB temps over LI separate from the main 0*C line N and W of NYC.  This is as the center of the LP is on the BM and at 985mb and continuing bombogenisis because 6hrs later its 975mb.  That has shown up on several runs.  That is where the heaviest precip rates are falling.  If strong CCB bands set up right a change over may not occur or only occur for a short time in places and for people who are currently throwing in the towel.  

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 11 <a href=Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 11 Ecmwf_22" />

Its only THURSDAY.  Look what happened with our clipper.  Just saying.

Doc, I like that thought you have about this storm possibly surprising.I have nothing but intuition of watching these snowstorms all these years, but this one is coming up from the Gulf to right near the benchmark.I know there is no cold high pressure up north, but this thing could really strengthen and cause more in the way of snow further west as well.Anyway, I think you Island guys have a good shot on this one.

Also right on the Thursday thought.Let's see the overnight models and what the morning brings.

Also, the Monday-Tuesday event is starting to look better according to NWS.

Happy days!!!!!!
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:33 pm

LOL Lee goldberg said my town will see about 1 inch..whatever it is i'll enjoy it fall down usually but it sounds like one giant slop fest now
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:45 pm

Bigtime mixing issues on the NAM after inital inch or two for just about everyone that sees any precip, common theme with todays runs, my expectations are pretty low atm i dont really like the look of this, thinking ceiling is maybe 4-5 inches for lucky people, 2-4 majority
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:47 pm

For what it is or isn't worth, Eric Holthaus just tweeted an image of the GFS at hr 60 saying 'finally, a big snowstorm is brewing for East Coast...'
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:51 pm

In CNJ 18z RGEM has 4" of snow and a centimeter of freezing rain, yikes.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:52 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:In CNJ 18z RGEM has 4" of snow and a centimeter of freezing rain, yikes.

I wonder how the ice will pan out with this system. Seems to be a big concern for Upton but my understanding is that Nor'easters aren't really the big producers of ice storms. It's either snow, sleet, or rain.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:54 pm

Maybe for the city, ive seen it get pretty nasty out here if the parameters come together, all depends on sfc temps.
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:55 pm

on my cell phone so can't post maps but the 18z rgem looks really good. widespread 4 to 6 inches on the front end for the city in north New Jersey and then there's a lull or dry slot and then the next batch coming in after but its out of its range almost looks like it has too low pressure centers instead of one
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:57 pm

@algae888 wrote:on my cell phone  so can't post maps   but the 18z rgem looks really good. widespread 4 to 6 inches on the front end for the city in north New Jersey and then there's a lull or dry slot and then the next batch coming in after but its out of its range almost looks like it has too low pressure centers instead of one
GFS looks warm, strung out and horrible.
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:03 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Bigtime mixing issues on the NAM after inital inch or two for just about everyone that sees any precip, common theme with todays runs, my expectations are pretty low atm i dont really like the look of this, thinking ceiling is maybe 4-5 inches for lucky people, 2-4 majority
the 4k nam shows widespread 3 to 6 inch snow from southern New Jersey right through the city Long Island in Connecticut mostly with back end snows ccb. while it doesn't look like we'll get that big Godzilla types storm this one can still give us a nice moderate snow of about 6 inches for some parts of the area. I really like the rgem it has been pretty good this winter so far we shall see
edit: southern and central New Jersey get it mostly in the front end snow northern New Jersey Long Island Connecticut on the backend snows on the 4 km Nam
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:14 pm

the short range and high res models are starting to pick up on a dry slot after the initial period of snow and then bringing precipitation back on the tail end of the storm that would be a mix changing to snow. the good thing about a dry slot if we get it it will limit the ice potential and help keep the snow around instead of being washed away by rain or freezing rain
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:32 pm

This dry slot is likely a result of the 850 hPa low being almost directly overhead

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:51 pm

Reason why the mid level warm up is due to the LP over Hudson bay just sitting there and the counterclockwise flow that bring up a southerly flow at this level in the atmosphere - pretty strong LP so as stated we need a bomb at the Delmarva area if we all want snow at this juncture which is slim. Just a reason for why this bad boy turned among st other reasons.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 7:10 pm

18z GFS brings .1-.25 ice into our area Al. No good, and it brings barely any snow. Could be more of a damgerous storm in terms of travel than a fun snowstorm.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 7:22 pm

new update is out

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