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Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

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Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15)

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:44 pm

who cares lol, its the NAM, its also still way out on the really unreliable hours.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:47 pm

Jesus that did not work out as expected lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:47 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Look at the consolidation at the base of the trough

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 3 <a href=Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 3 Nam_z510" />

There isn't any. Very elongated and ugly.


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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:50 pm

It looked a hell of a lot better than 12z, I thought

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:52 pm

isnt the pattern aloft better on this run tho? The NAM is just struggling per usual to put the pieces together...?
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Post by Analog96 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:55 pm

It's the 60 hour NAM.

Looking at that model beyond 36 hours is generally just something to do to pass the time.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:57 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Look at the consolidation at the base of the trough

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 3 <a href=Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 3 Nam_z510" />

There isn't any. Very elongated and ugly.


Yeah it looked better early on then... You still want to marry the NAM Frank. I won't let it go geek

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:30 pm

NO! I would divorce that biatch in seconds.

GFS started.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:32 pm

Got a feeling that the GFS is going to cave to the EURO. We will know in a few moments...
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:38 pm

Not if you have wxbell nutley yawn wait wait lol, i gotta go for storm vista i guess.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:38 pm

Hour 24 heights are rising slightly more ahead of the vort.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:44 pm

Hour 42, western ridge is a little more amp'd, might also see better consolidation of the energy at the base of the trough this run.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:46 pm

Hour 48 trough is deeper and slower it looks like to me

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:46 pm

Hour 51, energy beginning to elongate a bit - crap.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:48 pm

Hour 57...no good. Earlier on it looked a little better from 18z but it crapped the bed.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:49 pm

That's because the vorticity is on the wrong side of the trough. If we want that trough to tilt negative earlier, we need the vorticity upstream of the axis, not downstream. Because it is downstream, it is getting sheared out by the confluent region of the jet

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:49 pm

Oh great, any chance of rejuvinating itself, we cant have two runs tonight elongate and go to crap.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:51 pm

And there's the glancing blow from Team America lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:51 pm

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 3 Post-40-0-64012500-1421898498

Notice the center of the trough. The bulk of the H5 energy is east-northeast of it. Elongated looking. Now go look at the EURO h5 map and see how compact it is compared to this.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:52 pm

Update #2: EURO Brings The Heat, Same Ol' GFS? (1/24/15) - Page 3 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f69

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:53 pm

H5 really opens up on the GFS because of the negative CVA into the base of the trough. Not good for our storm chances......

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:54 pm

tomorrow morning we are within 48 hrs or so of this event, is the GFS going to be one great failure and Euro win out or the other...
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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:56 pm

Only one (maybe two deities, depending on your beliefs) know(s) the answer to that question, and nobody here (I hope) will have the chance to ask lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:56 pm

I do expect the EURO to slide east tonight, but not GFS-esque. If it does go east of the BM...storm is in jeopardy.

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:59 pm

We will see what the Euro shows tonight, but the GFS started the "no storm" camp this afternoon at 12z and has held course, so that is concerning to say the least.
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