Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)

The last few cycles of model runs have made it clear this is not going to be a Godzilla-type of storm. Some people may be upset to hear that, but personally I'm just glad we're getting a storm in a not-so favorable set-up in the first place. This storm is still going to bring light to moderate snow amounts to portions of the area. Ice will also be a concern that could accumulate on top of the snow. There will also be rain involved. Figuring out all these precipitation types, where they fall and how much is an extremely tough forecast right now. Many Mets are struggling with this one as are the models.



There are a couple of things to take note of when looking at this image from the 18z GFS.

#1 - Look at that 989mb low pressure system in southeast Canada. It is perfectly aligned with our storm off the east coast. Typically we like to see a High Pressure system in that location helping to provide a northwesterly flow of cold air funneling into our area. That is not the case. Instead we have a potent low blocking our cold air source and preventing winds from turning favorably for our area.

#2 - Latest guidance feels there will be a period of freezing rain or sleet that falls during this storm. Will it be for an hour or less? That I am still trying to figure out. Keep that in mind since we saw the damage ice can do to an area.



For the last couple of days I have been pretty consistent in saying this storm will take a track on the BM. That is exactly what it will do. Both the GFS/EURO agree on a BM track. If the storm is taking a BM track, why are we dealing with warm air advection and lack of precip. on the west side? One reason is subsidence. All the upper level energy is located on the east side of the trough. The western side has no juice, for lack of a better word, to work with. Also, there is NO phasing. No northern stream interaction. This is a southern stream driven storm doing it all on its own. The northern and southern jets WILL phase, but will do so well to our north and east near New England.

Here is my first call map:



Ice is not shown here, but I think .05-.10" of ice can not be ruled out at the moment. Tomorrow in my final map, I am going to make an outline of when the snow may change to ice then rain then back to snow. Very tough forecast. Not very confident in map right now, but I'll make adjustments tomorrow.

Thanks.  But as I said on the banter thread what an unbelievable change in the forecast in 24 hours with the low pressure strength and track the same as it was 24 hours ago.  Incredible! Fail on the EURO and win for the American models?

Love your Maps and Hard work you do! Bravo for keeping it Real! signed just a girl looking for a day off with the more confidence than the news channels! Been Following you since the channel 7 days and look for your expertise!

hey Frank, is there any chance the storm can strengthen a little earlier and therefore "make its own cold air" through heavy precip when it gets to our area? Or is this completely off the table now?

tigernumba1 wrote:hey Frank, is there any chance the storm can strengthen a little earlier and therefore "make its own cold air" through heavy precip when it gets to our area? Or is this completely off the table now?

That has a better chance than a phase, obviously.

frank yes this is going to be a tough storm to forecast and it's pretty clear we will not get a huge storm however a moderate snowfall is a good possibility.
here is nws probability map....

those are pretty high prob. for >4" which is a mod snowfall in my book. right now most wx outlets are calling for 3-6" n and w of nyc and 1-3" s and e. that's a pretty safe bet right now.
a few observations.
1) front end snow is where we have the best chance to over achieve and for forecast to bust. with a fast flow and no hp to our north there is nothing to impede the waa so that precip should not dry up as it is not fighting cold dry air but just race up the coast. and there is plenty of moisture as source is GOM. rgem and 4k nam are picking up on this giving places like c/n nj a good thump of snow to start.

2) snow will be falling during the early morning hours probably between 1am and 10am before the switch to rain/mix and ground is cold. so snow should stick on contact.
3) while long island will most likely change to rain they have the best shot at see ccb snow at the end of the storm. and as scott said these can drop a lot of snow in a short period of time. so they have a good chance to over achieve on both ends.
just a few thoughts. like your map but think it's under done a bit.

OUR GODZILLA TURNED INTO HIS SON GODZOOKI!!!! Much, much smaller than dad and can't breathe fire only a puff of smoke!

00z nam is cold

4-8 inches for NJ



We know the NAM has a wet bias so cut the QPF by at least .25 and we get 3-6" but the fact that it is trending colder as the euro also is a good sign IMO lets see what tonight's and tomorrows 6z runs show. I will be paying close attention the RGEM tomorrow morning - it has been very good within 36 hours of our storms this winter.

Nvm, 6-12 inches. Too bad it's the crap model

Isn't it in a decent range now? I know its the NAM but if the other models follow how cool would that be!

Frank_Wx wrote:Nvm, 6-12 inches. Too bad it's the crap model

Wait!!! Now I ADORE the NAM! :-D

Wow I forgot the NAM on SV comes out in 1 hour increments. So it'd 4-8 inches for NNJ, more like 3-6 for NYC

Verbatim NAM is not 6-12 in jersey on wxbell, its more like 3-6. Why are amounts so different from site to site?

jmanley32 wrote:Isn't it in a decent range now? I know its the NAM but if the other models follow how cool would that be!

I personally would certainly take it into consideration, but that's just my very humble opinion.

jmanley32 wrote:Verbatim NAM is not 6-12 in jersey on wxbell, its more like 3-6.  Why are amounts so different from site to site?

Check post above

4k nam snow map

That's 4K

Edit, I mean 12K

frank nam a rgem dry slot us after first wave comes through. I mentioned this before it's like they have 2 waves. any thoughts?


nam

18z rgem

better map

18z rgem

All the upper air energy is elongated on the east side. Pretty ugly for a big storm. This should be a nice 2-4/3-6 type storm for many

looks like precip is done by noon

quick hitter