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Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:28 am

Yeah it did RB, I believe this will stay a advisory till late tonight, once they see the precip coming in it may change to a wsw if they see continued increase in precipitiation ,and those probability maps are chances of snow greater than the amount listed, so even a 10% chance of greater than 8 inches. And BTW those maps are experimental still by NWS.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:34 am

YIKES - I have not seen this type of ZR fro NYC predicted since the great Jan ice storm back to back days from an over running in 2000 - do not know if it serves but things are getting very interesting - hi res models RGEM especially showing a good back end thump as well as you guys have stated - I think this may overperform - globals have tough time with LLC and back end snows

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 6 R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_NewYork

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:36 am

Yeah, they're almost dead in line with the latest SREFs. I was just looking at the latest SREFs, and 66% of them have the 850 hPa low closing off BEFORE it gets to our area, which is largely the reason for 1) the closer track to the coast by the surface wave and 2) the distinct increase in the backside precipitation. By closing off southwest/west of us, that promotes a low-level frontogenetic/deformation zone to the northwest of the surface cyclone. This is why it is starting to regain its classic comma head appearance. Now, it is going to be very interesting to see how the future runs handle this, because if that trend of closing it off sooner continues, then there *could* be some pretty intense CCB banding for a period of a at least a few hours before it shuts off mid-afternoon tomorrow.

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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:37 am

Rgem looks nice. very close to NAM solution the precipitation on the back end looks to be pretty good and I think that would be snow even though its showing a mix for some parts of our area. the front and snows are going to be intense maybe one to two inch an hour snows. if rain snow line gets delayed for any length of time this could really over perform not expecting that but a possibility
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:37 am

RGEM total snowfall

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 6 HePmXhW

ICE - YIKES!!!

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 6 2Ym3EJN

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:38 am

12z GFS is rolling now, but honestly at this time range I'm 85% behind short-range models now. They're designed for this window; globals aren't. Still will be interesting.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:39 am

Imagine if this goes surprise Godzilla on us lol, wouldn't that just be awesome, at this point 6 inches or more would be awesome though. And ya mugs showed 5mm last night 3mm now, that's still a LOT of frz, and its supposed to be slightly gusty out so if trees get a good coating could be problems, we will see, the heavier the precip the more likely it will be snow or rain though, I don't recall a pouring freezing rain ever.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:40 am

Interesting note: GFS closes 850 off over Cape May......that's important.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:40 am

jesus that's .5 inches ice accretion, that would be massive problems.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:41 am

mugs where do you get those maps? I like them.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:42 am

Hmmm it still erodes the precipitation on the back side only to bring it back for the coastal plain the low departs. Interesting.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:42 am

wow rb, we may be going back a day or two! I so hope the short ranges are right and this turns a 180!
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:43 am

@rb924119 wrote:Yeah, they're almost dead in line with the latest SREFs. I was just looking at the latest SREFs, and 66% of them have the 850 hPa low closing off BEFORE it gets to our area, which is largely the reason for 1) the closer track to the coast by the surface wave and 2) the distinct increase in the backside precipitation. By closing off southwest/west of us, that promotes a low-level frontogenetic/deformation zone to the northwest of the surface cyclone. This is why it is starting to regain its classic comma head appearance. Now, it is going to be very interesting to see how the future runs handle this, because if that trend of closing it off sooner continues, then there *could* be some pretty intense CCB banding for a period of a at least a few hours before it shuts off mid-afternoon tomorrow.

Rb great points and that is what I said last night about that warm intrusion if she closes off then we do not get that surge or it gets muted and the low level cold air doesn't erode as the globals project- this may be a surprise and it is good the precip comes in at when it is dark and cold.

What do you guys think - do they up the WWA for N&W to warning criteria for the ice possibility - .1 to .2 is a bad situation IMO and Upton should err on the side of caution as they may well have learned from Sunday - we'll see - they'll hold off to the 12z suite and 18z suites run. They'll want continuity before they pull the trigger on warning levels

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:44 am

Andy apparently NW NJ is where snow goes to melt because they do not accumulate anything at all lol I don't know what the heck happened here ahahaha Central PA sees a 3-6 inch storm while everybody on this board gets 1-2" lol

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:46 am

That shows 3 mm which would convert to 1/8 of an inch

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:46 am

@amugs wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Yeah, they're almost dead in line with the latest SREFs. I was just looking at the latest SREFs, and 66% of them have the 850 hPa low closing off BEFORE it gets to our area, which is largely the reason for 1) the closer track to the coast by the surface wave and 2) the distinct increase in the backside precipitation. By closing off southwest/west of us, that promotes a low-level frontogenetic/deformation zone to the northwest of the surface cyclone. This is why it is starting to regain its classic comma head appearance. Now, it is going to be very interesting to see how the future runs handle this, because if that trend of closing it off sooner continues, then there *could* be some pretty intense CCB banding for a period of a at least a few hours before it shuts off mid-afternoon tomorrow.

Rb great points and that is what I said last night about that warm intrusion if she closes off then we do not get that surge or it gets muted and the low level cold air doesn't erode as the globals project- this may be a surprise and it is good the precip comes in at when it is dark and cold.

What do you guys think - do they up the WWA for N&W to warning criteria for the ice possibility - .1 to .2 is a bad situation IMO and Upton should err on the side of caution as they may well have learned from Sunday - we'll see - they'll hold off to the 12z suite and 18z suites run. They'll want continuity before they pull the trigger on warning levels

Yeah, they'll wait, possibly even to some of the 00z runs tonight to make sure they get it right. Lord knows Cuomo would be on them like flies on stink, and I'm sure the NWS staff is getting pretty tired of that by now lol

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:50 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:That shows 3 mm which would convert to 1/8 of an inch

Janet that is for the city and you know by us you add another mm or two to that !!!Oh boy could make for a another lock down morning like this past Sunday

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Post by Dis2cruise Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:51 am

I will be flying into jfk at 4:00 pm tomorrow heading back to LI will the snow ice be done by then ?

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Post by H.G. Rising Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:56 am

Head over to this link:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=6&day=null

Play with the snowfall amounts and look at probabilities. I think most of us are likely in for a 1-3" snowfall event plus .05" of ice accretion.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:01 am

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...A WINTRY MIX FOR SATURDAY...

CTZ005-009>011-NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>071-232100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.150124T0500Z-150124T2300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
411 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING
RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND ICE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH UP TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...1/2 MILE OR LESS IN SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...LIKELY MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. SNOW TAPERS OFF IN THE
EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISBILITIES
AND SNOW/ICE COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

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Post by WOLVES1 Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:09 am

Did the gfs look like it improved? Amugs your killing me with the two guys with their arms up, I keep thinking something good is coming.
we do not want the GFS solution gives us about you 2 to 4 inches of snow and is very warm doesn't have the good back in snows as the other models
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:17 am

At first it did, and then it looked like it fell down a vertical cliff lmao

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:23 am

Boy the RAP is going wild on bringing heavy precip in here early morning. Still snowing all the way down to Philly at 8am. State College just up'd a lot of their WWA's to WSW's. Wonder if Mt Holly and Upton make any similar changes as the day progresses.
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:30 am

if we estimate at temperatures between 30 and 32 degrees right before precipitation starts and we wet bulb down to 25 to 28 degrees I cant see the temperature rising above 32 until after 10 a.m. Especially with light winds from the north
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 23, 2015 12:03 pm

BILL EVANS: 2.2" snow in NYC with 1.1" of rain.
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