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Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:27 pm

Just got home.  ALL LOCAL PRO METS ON RADIO  (I listened to 5 different forecasts) HAVE AT MOST 1 to 3" city on east and south and 3 to 5' north and west before a changeover.  And that's total storm accumulations.  What gives?  I also posted that I thought NWS would have updated the entire area except Eastern LI to a WS Warning but they haven't budged yet. Someone in this scenario either us on here or the local METS are gonna look real bad tomorrow!!!!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:30 pm

rb where do u look at srefs and do they have snow totals?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:32 pm

I think the mets are being cautious till the last minute, I have seen WSW go up during a event. Those amounts are way to low. even TWC has me for 4-8. WSW criteria.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:33 pm

dang total qpf sref for white plains mean is 1.05!
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:33 pm

18 Z NAM looks even colder than 12 Z yes James something's gotta give Lonnie Quinn on WCBS radio just said 0 to 2 inches for Central Park they must know something we don't by the way National Weather Service just upped snowfall totals on my phone can't post map
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:35 pm

Upton 3-5" of sleet! on top of 2-4" of snow or do you think they meant total snow and sleet?
.TONIGHT...SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW
NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN AND SLEET LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SLEET ACCUMULATION OF
3 TO 5 INCHES.
ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. BREEZY. NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:39 pm

ICE! Quite a long time too and heavy, been consistent on that since yesterday.

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 10 Ice10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:40 pm

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 10 Ice_210
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:41 pm

NAM total snow/ice. Safe to say we will see a WSW at some point at least in and around NYC, looks like south of NYC is too warm like LI.

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 10 Nam_sn10
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Post by essexcountypete Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:42 pm

@amugs wrote:"...TOTAL SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES."

Mama mia! That's a lot of sleet. I guess that much is possible, but I find it hard to believe the NWS thinks anyone is going to get 3-5" of sleet. That's got to be a total of snow and sleet together.
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Post by oldtimer Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:42 pm

Mugs I dont think its a good idea for Syo to rant

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:43 pm

No Al that's a total of 5-9 and dang that much ice, yes sleet is not as bad but can still cause major driving troubles.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:44 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:rb where do u look at srefs and do they have snow totals?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallsref.html

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:45 pm

WSW starting to be posted north of city and into CT!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:47 pm

that sref is out of its mind believes mostly rain, nah.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:47 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Just got home.  ALL LOCAL PRO METS ON RADIO  (I listened to 5 different forecasts) HAVE AT MOST 1 to 3" city on east and south and 3 to 5' north and west before a changeover.  And that's total storm accumulations.  What gives?  I also posted that I thought NWS would have updated the entire area except Eastern LI to a WS Warning but they haven't budged yet. Someone in this scenario either us on here or the local METS are gonna look real bad tomorrow!!!!

easy there! The mets on the networks are always conservative since they blew that blizzard forecast years ago. They will wait until 6 or 11:00 to change any amounts...don't want to look bad again.
Also, many of you are looking at the NAM, it overdoes the precip so don't get too excited...

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:48 pm

Not good they upped icing totals:

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
336 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...AND INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND ICE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY 6 INCH AMOUNTS. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES SATURDAY
MORNING.

* SNOWFALL RATES...1 INCH PER HOUR EARLY TO MID SATURDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS LATE TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY CHANGING BACK TO SNOW MID TO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING IN THE EVENING.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:that sref is out of its mind believes mostly rain, nah.

I'm being totally honest when I say this, and am certainly NOT trying to be a downer, but from my own personal experience they are LETHAL in this timeframe.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:51 pm

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 10 Nam4km_asnow_neus_14

Blow ur min on this snow map

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:52 pm

Al where did you read that 3-5 sleet thing, I cannot find it in disco or the advisory.
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:54 pm

...and I just got my daughter off the bus and there is a stiff s/se breeze of easily over 10 mph.  Never a good sign.  i don't believe the higher totals or freezing rain threat.  I think if I had to choose I'd side with the local METS right now.   Sad HOPE I'M WRONG

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:58 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Mugs   I dont think its a good idea for Syo to rant

What??

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Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:11 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:that sref is out of its mind believes mostly rain, nah.

I'm being totally honest when I say this, and am certainly NOT trying to be a downer, but from my own personal experience they are LETHAL in this timeframe.

I haven't used SREFS for any part of any operational forecast one time in my life.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:16 pm

Well syo all I can say is if it ices it ices if it doesn't it doesn't, no one will know till tomorrow, just becareful if it does and stay in if you can. And the winds are forecast to shift per NWS. Like Janet said mets are being cautious, this is common.
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Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:17 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Well syo all I can say is if it ices it ices if it doesn't it doesn't, no one will know till tomorrow, just becareful if it does and stay in if you can.  And the winds are forecast to shift per NWS.  Like Janet said mets are being cautious, this is common.

How would winds not have a northerly component with a strong low to your east?

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