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Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)

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Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)

Post by Guest Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:48 pm

I personally cannot ever remember an intense LP bringing freezing rain. Sleet yes and lots of it, but usually with an intense nor'easter it's rain to snow or vice versa. I seriously doubt freezing rain with the precipitation rates and vertical motion we look to have.

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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:49 pm

with no blocking or hp to our north this storm is going to race by. lets see if rgem does the same.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:54 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I personally cannot ever remember an intense LP bringing freezing rain.  Sleet yes and lots of it, but usually with an intense nor'easter it's rain to snow or vice versa.  I seriously doubt freezing rain with the precipitation rates and vertical motion we look to have.

This. I mentioned it earlier today as well.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:00 pm

NWS has said frz could well be a issue and that map shows .1 to .25 for many, its concerning but makes sense what soul and syo say but odder things have happened so just be prepared.
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Post by oldtimer Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:14 pm

jman .10 is bad enough but .25 would be insane!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:23 pm

No one is seeing .25" of ice. Ignore. .10" is the max.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:28 pm

Okay was just go by what it showed on that image .1 to .25, but yeah thats a lot. Then again and in all due respect Frank last weekend was not exoected at all and some got close to .25, not wishing it but I just do not want to see a repeat of thiose accidents, but .1 is enough especially on top of snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:29 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Okay was just go by what it showed on that image .1 to .25, but yeah thats a lot. Then again and in all due respect Frank last weekend was not exoected at all and some got close to .25, not wishing it but I just do not want to see a repeat of thiose accidents, but .1 is enough especially on top of snow.

I did not see any reports of .25 inches of ice last weekend. All around .10 to .15

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:36 pm

mugs mentioned that amount a bit earlier, was going by what he said. Or someone said it I know im not going senile lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:mugs mentioned that amount a bit earlier, was going by what he said.  Or someone said it I know im not going senile lol

Very Happy Laughing Rolling Eyes

00z GFS coming out now

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:41 pm

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f30

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:43 pm

RGEM is colder and gives a good front end thump of snow.

Gfs looks about the same?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:43 pm

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f39

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

2-4 front end snow followed by some freezing rain then rain

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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:44 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Okay was just go by what it showed on that image .1 to .25, but yeah thats a lot. Then again and in all due respect Frank last weekend was not exoected at all and some got close to .25, not wishing it but I just do not want to see a repeat of thiose accidents, but .1 is enough especially on top of snow.

I did not see any reports of .25 inches of ice last weekend. All around .10 to .15

We had close to that here, based on Harrison's COOP report, and Harrison would have less than I would.
...ESSEX COUNTY...
CEDAR GROVE 0.20 800 PM 1/18 TRAINED SPOTTER

...HUDSON COUNTY...
HARRISON 0.20 1115 AM 1/18 TRAINED SPOTTER

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:44 pm

@amugs wrote:RGEM is colder and gives a good front end thump of snow.

Gfs looks about the same?

GFS is snow for about a 5-6 hour period. Rest of the storm is mixed

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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:45 pm

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 2 Rgem_asnow_us_16
rgem
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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:45 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@amugs wrote:RGEM is colder and gives a good front end thump of snow.

Gfs looks about the same?

GFS is snow for about a 5-6 hour period. Rest of the storm is mixed

Going to depend on rates.

Also, not sure if sfc cold air gets scoured out as fast as GFS says.

It likes to warm the sfc up too fast from previous experience.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:47 pm

5mm as ice for NYC

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 2 R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_Hartford

5mm = .20"

Ouch...

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Post by mako460 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:50 pm

Any time frame for start/end

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:51 pm

0Z RGEM gives us some good back end snow.

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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:51 pm

some nice backend snow on rgem
Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 2 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16
I would go with rgem over gfs at this point
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:52 pm

@mako460 wrote:Any time frame for start/end

Check upper right of snow map on 1st page

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Post by mako460 Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:55 pm

got it, thanks Frank

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:56 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:5mm as ice for NYC

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 2 R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_Hartford

5mm = .20"

Ouch...

Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 2 ZR_000-048_0000

OH CRAP!! ICE STORM?? I have not seen this much freezing rain with a coastal before - agree? This would be nuts well so goes this winter I guess.

Good night all see ya in the AM - interesting runs IMO - RGEM RGEM!!!

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:56 pm

One encouraging sign is that the latest RGEM and NAM runs have come out with colder solutions. Keep in mind that the large scale models often over do it with the warmth. Just something to watch for as we draw closer to the event, and into the range of the hi-res models.
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