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Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:35 am

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY now in effect for NYC.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:19 am

Just watched abcnews Mr Evans says for my area Jersey shore it only snows for an hour not expecting much if any snow in cnj
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Post by carvin1079 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:28 am

Yeah they also stated start time 5 hours earlier around midnight should that help with accumulating and keep temps lower

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Post by Sunflowers138 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:52 am

With the ice accretion on top of snow (would it be on top of snow, or would all the snow melt at that point?), could we expect power outages?

Sorry if this has been asked before, I'm still half asleep and I'm trying to figure out what to do today since tomorrow the roads will be crappy.

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Post by Quietace Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:58 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Just watched abcnews Mr Evans says for my area Jersey shore it only snows for an hour not expecting much if any snow in cnj
Good call, thinking almost nothing on the front end for us, maybe c-1"

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:02 am

Yeah it was sounding like more than that Ace well whatever it is Monday looks to be the real threat
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:53 am

6Z GFS doesn't look so great for Monday, Euro didn't either.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:01 am

NWS:

Not a good combo if it happens:

ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACRETION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT...AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TRENDS SATURDAY MORNING SINCE THE ISSALOBARIC RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING LOW WILL KEEP WINDS MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY.

IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SAT
AFTERNOON...PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOONE AND EVENING. GENERALLY 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:05 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:6Z GFS doesn't look so great for Monday, Euro didn't either.

Yep, read NWS analysis of Monday.Threat for major snow is diminishing.Looks like we'll do pretty good up here relatively tomorrow CP.They mentioned 3 to 6.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:06 am

26 of the Euro ensembles from 00z still insist on a warning level snow, some much more than 6 inches, but I wonder since they do not take temp profiles into consideration on wxbell if a lot of that is ice or rain. We shall see, storm heading this way looks big!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:12 am

Doc:

I hope we get several inches tomorrow because I'm doubting we get much of anything Monday and with a frigid week ahead next week I'd hate to have that without some kind of snow cover.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:21 am

Think that's a lock, CP, this storm tomorrow looks too big not to give us a few inches.That should last all week as the temps nosedive.

Thinking that PV effect is going to push that Monday storm away from us.

Coises,folied again!!!!!!!!
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:40 am

@docstox12 wrote:Think that's a lock, CP, this storm tomorrow looks too big not to give us a few inches.That should last all week as the temps nosedive.

Thinking that PV effect is going to push that Monday storm away from us.

Coises,folied again!!!!!!!!

What's up Doc......Be patient! Shocked Shocked

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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:21 am

front end snow on nam continues to be impressive with 3-6" throughout the area.
Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 4 Namconus_asnow_us_10
12k nam
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:24 am

But how much of that is ice Al? Anyway to tell?
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:25 am

4k nam has a lot of 6" totals warning level criteria
Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 4 Nam4km_asnow_us_10
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:27 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:But how much of that is ice Al? Anyway to tell?
for you cp none. this is as of 10am tom. but most of snow acc falls from 1am to 7am before any mixing. at 7am per nam 850's are just getting to 0*c at nycUpdate #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 4 Nam_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:30 am

@algae888 wrote:4k nam has a lot of 6" totals warning level criteria
Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 4 Nam4km_asnow_us_10

I'm hoping that we get more than forecast. If it starts just after midnight and snows till 9 or 10 am 2 things might happen.

1. we get a solid 4 to 6 front end thump before any changeover if the radar looks impressive enough and...
2. By the time temps warm up enough due to the speed of the storm we dry slot avoiding most mixing issues

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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:31 am

nw nj and orange and rockland co get slammed by nam 850's stay below freezing with almost an inch liquid
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:32 am

li also has good backend snow
Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 4 Nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:35 am

total snow acc per 12k nam is 5-9" even for li. rb you do great in e pa
Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 4 Namconus_asnow_us_14
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:39 am

this run it much juicier for inland sections and slightly colder over all. let's see what rgem says next
Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 4 Nam_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip
Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)  - Page 4 Nam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip
nice backend snows
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:43 am

I just started looking at the models, and WOW what a friggin' change overnight!! Unbelievable!!! Al, that's actually still a scoche (scosh? lol) too far southeast for me. However, I, personally (because of my location; yes, I'm being selfish here lmao) like the trends-further northwest track and more expansive precipitation shield on the backend.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:44 am

Where do you get the RGEM data from, btw?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:45 am

Thanks Al, my outlook on the winter just picked up again, what a roller coaster ride.

This is why Frank and Sroc always say stop getting emotionally involved with every model run, it can drive you nuts.
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