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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) Empty Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:23 pm

The next storm threat is Monday. The good news with this storm is there should not be p-type issues. The injection of cold air that comes down with the northern stream energy is impressive and will take us into the 20's next week.

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) Gfs_storm_1

The GFS is a better solution than the EURO if you want to see a big storm off the coast. The trough goes negative in an ideal location and a surface low develops off the coast. Unfortunately, there is no west-based blocking so we actually want to see the surface low mature INLAND to see big snows, not off the coast. It can deepen offshore, but I would like to see it developed before it gets to the coast.

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) Euro_storm_1

The EURO keeps some of the northern stream energy left on the backside of the trough instead of phasing it into the mean trough at its base. It also digs the energy much more so the surface low develops even further offshore.

Again, the POTENTIAL is there for a big storm depending on the timing of the trough going negative and whether or not H5 closes off. We'll see what happens. Timing is for Monday


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:25 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:25 pm

Why don't we make this the Monday thread since it really isn't long range anymore?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:26 pm

This is the Monday thread. It's in parentheses.

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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:28 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:This is the Monday thread. It's in parentheses.

Great, if solutions like the GFS work out, this could be a lot bigger than Saturday's.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:31 pm

Yes, but if there was a -NAO this would be much easier. That said, this could be a high ratio snowfall as well. It's just a matter of where the surface low forms. No doubt that it will.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:32 pm

question does this storm on the weekend have an affect on Mondays if so what are they.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:35 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:question does this storm on the weekend have an affect on Mondays if so what are they.

Nope. The northern jet is so fast that it quickly takes the Saturday storm into the Arctic

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:39 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:question does this storm on the weekend have an affect on Mondays if so what are they.

Nope. The northern jet is so fast that it quickly takes the Saturday storm into the Arctic
Thanks Frank was curious that's all. This one looks like it could be a long duration event. I know no details yet but im excited I know this Saturdays is a disappointment but im looking at the postives for this one on Monday. Positive Vibes Everyone
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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:02 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:question does this storm on the weekend have an affect on Mondays if so what are they.

Nope. The northern jet is so fast that it quickly takes the Saturday storm into the Arctic
Thanks Frank was curious that's all. This one looks like it could be a long duration event. I know no details yet but im excited I know this Saturdays is a disappointment but im looking at the postives for this one on Monday. Positive Vibes Everyone
Long duration events are fun, as you can watch snow falling for a long time, but can be annoying, because the dry slot lasts longer, too.

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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:01 pm

00z GFS dug the northern stream energy too much. Caved to the EURO but still manages to get high ratio snows into the area.

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f81

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84



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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:35 pm

00z NAVGEM Very Happy

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) Nvg10.500.096.namer

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 12:24 am

no pic
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 12:25 am

wow, a ton of snow from monday NAV GEM!
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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:51 am

All of the models are now south for this storm. 6z Navgem went south, Euro doesn't give us anything. Euro Ensemble mean is way south. GFS is still the furthest north along with the ensembles but it also went south.
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:53 am

@Snow88 wrote:All of the models are now south for this storm. 6z Navgem went south, Euro doesn't give us anything. Euro Ensemble mean is way south. GFS is still the furthest north along with the ensembles but it also went south.
Really!! I see that the NWS also lowered the duration of the snow. We're getting inside of 3 days!. Here we go again?


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Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:53 am

6Z GFS is a little better than 00Z.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:15 am

@Analog96 wrote:6Z GFS is a little better than 00Z.

How so? I don't see it.
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Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:16 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Analog96 wrote:6Z GFS is a little better than 00Z.

How so? I don't see it.
QPF is higher and it snows longer.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:23 am

Oh boy I hope thus one doesn't go
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Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:25 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Oh boy I hope thus one doesn't go
Big difference between Ocean County, NJ, and Orange County, NY with this one.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:28 am

Yes about 159 miles
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Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:30 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes about 159 miles

I'm talking about impacts.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:34 am

I know analog so at this time what's it looking like amounts duration
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:45 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes about 159 miles

Geographically more like 120 miles.

Monday south is better, tomorrow we should do better. The amount of qpf showing up on the models everywhere on Monday concerns me, it's pretty dry as of latest runs.
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Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:55 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I know analog so at this time what's it looking like amounts duration
I wouldn't even want to do this until the next event is gone, but it's very possible you could have a warning level snow while orange county gets next to nothing?

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