NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Page 2 of 14 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 8 ... 14  Next

Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Guest Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:39 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes about 159 miles

Geographically more like 120 miles.

Monday south is better, tomorrow we should do better. The amount of qpf showing up on the models everywhere on Monday concerns me, it's pretty dry as of  latest runs.

NWS shows an average of .33 QPF for Long Island Monday/Monday night.  Less north and only slightly more south.  If this verifies we're looking at 2 minor events with tremendous hype coming in.  Tomorrow's and Monday's.

True but snow ratios should be of the 15:1 and possibly a bit higher with the cold air/temps aloft. So with .33 QPF you can squeeze a decent measurable snowfall.

Lets get this Saturday storm out of the way and then we can focus on Monday's peeps. Is the clipper even on land - I do not see it on any maps?

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:02 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes about 159 miles

Geographically more like 120 miles.

Monday south is better, tomorrow we should do better. The amount of qpf showing up on the models everywhere on Monday concerns me, it's pretty dry as of  latest runs.

NWS shows an average of .33 QPF for Long Island Monday/Monday night.  Less north and only slightly more south.  If this verifies we're looking at 2 minor events with tremendous hype coming in.  Tomorrow's and Monday's.

True but snow ratios should be of the 15:1 and possibly a bit higher with the cold air/temps aloft. So with .33 QPF you can squeeze a decent measurable snowfall.

Lets get this Saturday storm out of the way and then we can focus on Monday's peeps. Is the clipper even on land - I do not see it on any maps?

No, it isn't on land yet.

OKX mentioned that in their discussion.

0.33" with that storm could be like 5" given that it's a clipper and the air mass will be cold.

Analog96
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 156
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-03-12
Location : Elizabeth, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:52 am

Don't know if this is worth anything, and I hope it isn't but the 12Z NAM shows nothing north of ACY for the Monday system basically.

Analog96
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 156
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-03-12
Location : Elizabeth, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 12:13 pm

This thing may be dead on arrival.

Now the NAM is a trendsetter?

I've seen it all this winter.

Analog96
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 156
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-03-12
Location : Elizabeth, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 12:23 pm

Monday looks to be all south and not even that wet on latest model runs, maybe this will change...hopefully. For now focus on tomorrow and hope for a overperformance, tomorrow may be our chance at some excitement if things go in the right direction. But I can honestly say it seems like the models are a clusterf+++ and don't have a clue except the short rangers, which are calling for a possibly dangerous snow/ice event.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 12:28 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Monday looks to be all south and not even that wet on latest model runs, maybe this will change...hopefully.  For now focus on tomorrow and hope for a overperformance, tomorrow may be our chance at some excitement if things go in the right direction.  But I can honestly say it seems like the models are a clusterf+++ and don't have a clue except the short rangers, which are calling for a possibly dangerous snow/ice event.

It's REALLY bad this year.

I know we say this every year, but this year seems worse than ever, with models not having a clue on anything until we get within like 36 hours.

Let's keep our eye on this and see what happens until 00Z tomorrow night at least.

Then maybe there's another clipper a couple days after that at least good for an inch or two of powder.

Analog96
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 156
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-03-12
Location : Elizabeth, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Guest Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:29 pm

Monday storm threat dead yet??? Seems like it on NWS!

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Guest Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:04 pm

NWS had me at a 50% chance of snow Sunday night,Monday and Monday night.  Now down to 20 to 30%

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Quietace Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:09 pm

syosnow94 wrote:NWS had me at a 50% chance of snow Sunday night,Monday and Monday night.  Now down to 20 to 30%
Suppression depression my friend. Looks more of a Dc Baltimore area system

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:10 pm

syosnow94 wrote:NWS had me at a 50% chance of snow Sunday night,Monday and Monday night.  Now down to 20 to 30%

As well they should, based on today's guidance.

I like that step down method of forecasting, go from 50 down to 20 or 30.

Then tomorrow if the models show nothing, you can go down to flurries.

Analog96
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 156
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-03-12
Location : Elizabeth, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:17 pm

Yeah this is frustrating Monday seemed like a lock Ace for us pattern better but nope
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:26 pm

One thing I don't understand is I thought this would not be suppressed that the PV wasn't going to be an issue so what happened?
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Guest Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:09 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:One thing I don't understand is I thought this would not be suppressed that the PV wasn't going to be an issue so what happened?

Te winter of 2014/2015 happened!

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:18 pm

I know syo lol but am looking for analysis why
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by amugs Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:22 pm

It is not done yet - once we get this storm out of the way the models will have a better handle on this next week - two pieces are looking interesting as per GFS run here.

Looks south as of now but we'll see if we get the crazy phase as shown on the gfs.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12155
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by RJB8525 Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:11 pm

Just chiming in, TWC took all snow out for Monday just cloudy day
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:16 pm

Yeah this is not looking good as of now a day ago great this just isn't our winter
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:28 pm

Now 18Z GFS gives this a little life lol.

Analog96
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 156
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-03-12
Location : Elizabeth, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by devsman Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:44 pm

Sunday, February 1st. That's what I'm thinking is our next chance.
devsman
devsman
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 424
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 45
Location : merrick, ny (south shore of Long Island)

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Analog96 Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:45 pm

@devsman wrote:Sunday, February 1st. That's what I'm thinking is our next chance.

One at a time... there's a clipper the night of the 29th that could give everyone a nice inch or two also.

Analog96
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 156
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-03-12
Location : Elizabeth, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:20 am

Wow look at euro..blew this storm up!

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:23 am

No wonder...it closed off H5 off the coast of NJ.

Stay tuned. Another moderate snowfall possible for coast

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Post-40-0-74943500-1422080381

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by algae888 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:26 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wow look at euro..blew this storm up!

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87
frank gfs and nam did too. just a little east though
Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:28 am

There's two pieces of northern stream energy to focus on. The euro was able to phase in the second one into the mean trough faster before it was too far out to sea. H5 closed off and the storm was closer to the coast. There's also some higher heights in Nova Scotia that could act as a block. Full latitude troughs are nothing to mess with...

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:30 am

holy crap anyone wanna see the snow map for this one on euro? If this comes west at all may be uncaging the monster.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 14 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 8 ... 14  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum