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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:32 am

Post it son

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:33 am

Of course, where I USED to live scorse big time on this one, blah hoping it comes west some on future runs, loving having to respond to two threads though
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:34 am

euro, come west some plz!

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Ecmwf_10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:34 am

syo you happy bout that one jesus!
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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:35 am

The potential for the Saturday storm was Godzilla but we didn't reach it. The potential for this storm is Roidzilla if everything comes together just right. Very difficult to achieve without a true -NAO. Even a Godzilla will be tough. This is the type of storm where either a hit could be big or it will be out to sea. Nothing in the middle.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:36 am

bigger view of what could come if this pushed west and was verbatim dayum!

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Ecmwf_10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:37 am

roid roid roid!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:39 am

Energy will be on land for 12z runs tomorrow. Wow, this could be big. Huge 12z runs tomorrow. What a turn of events if they show something similar.

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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:40 am

OMG that looks lovely. what is the time frame for that storm
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:41 am

frank it seems models going back to that have a storm lose it to have it come back again. nice to see
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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:43 am

This thing could be insane it will be for eastern CT and cape with winds over 60mph and blinding snow, if it can come west as Frank said we will be in the game for quite a friggin storm to put us above average, imagine that if today pans out well too!


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:46 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:45 am

Al looks to be tues into wed now, and wow cape has winds over 70-80mph gusts verbatim! Anyone wanna take a road trip to cape if it doesnt push west lol
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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:50 am

Frank its still Monday> Looks on model to be more Tuesday/wed?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:52 am

This tuesday midday,

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Euro_910
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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:52 am

The pattern amplification is surreal. MJO in phase 7 definitely has something to do with that.

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 ECMF_phase_51m_full

Now check out the western ridge, the east-based block, and the higher heights through Quebec. H5 closes off as the northern stream energy consolidates at the base of trough. Insansity.

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Ecmwf_z500a_nh_14

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:54 am

If that pushes even 100 miles west, which could see happening (is that HP to west going to keep it east?) It will be a all out HECS blizzack! Note I didn't use the real B word lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:57 am

I feel cautious though Frank it went from moderate storm, to nada to now possible roid, its one run so until tomorrow (oh god the anticipation is gonna kill me lol) I will remain hesitant but wow on those maps u posted, HUGE potential, as u said u liked this timeframe better! And u may nailed it over the models. Who needs super computers just hook Frank up lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:03 am

Waiting on ensembles, those will help tell if Euro operational just went haywire or if they agree that will be awesome, my thinking is we see some roid snowfall stamps on it for the area too.
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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:13 am

@jmanley32 wrote: bigger view of what could come if this pushed west and was verbatim dayum!

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Ecmwf_10

Oh crap, I wake up to see this now, I won't sleep the whole weekend.

One question, The Euro shows 10:1 liquid to snow ratios correct? If that's the case won't these totals be 1.5 to 2 times higher due to much higher ratios with cold temperatures associated with this? If so we're talking insane amounts of snow, especially over LI. I know this is putting the cart before the horse and it's only one run but DAMN!!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:15 am

Imagine if this came west, (which usually happens a bit at least) if the storm is gonna hit, and your right if this was 15:1 or 20:1 omg!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:20 am

Didn't we say the Euro handles these northern storms better than the GFS and other models? If so this is a very viable serious solution with the setup as it shows now. CMC blows it up just as strong but further offshore, GFS and NAM do too to a degree, but switcharoo.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:25 am

@jmanley32 wrote:euro, come west some plz!

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Ecmwf_10

I just experienced movement!!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:28 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Imagine if this came west, (which usually happens a bit at least) if the storm is gonna hit, and your right if this was 15:1 or 20:1 omg!

At this stage I suppose anything could happen. We went from dry on Monday to potential Monster. Again one run so I don't want to go nuts with this yet but.........
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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:31 am

Wow, SREFS are leaning west! Moderate snow into LI and NYC. Never seen pink before on these maps

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 3 Sref_namer_087_mslp

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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:31 am

I am hearing the ukie is close to the euro solution and the 03 srefs have come west.
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