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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

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Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15)

Post by Guest Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:41 am

Between what you guys are saying and how hard it's snowing right now I'm lightheaded. can't function.

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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:42 am

navgem has it a little east of euro. it was first to pick up on tonights storm if i'm not mistaken
Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 4 Navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_14
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 2:51 am

We already have some agreement among models just placement, this could be a blockbuster, but I am having fun watching the current storm unfold, 5-6 would be great!
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 24, 2015 3:39 am

this is what i'm hearing about the euro ensembles. 35 members out of 50 from EPS.bomb out the clipper And the majority of those members have an impressive precip shield that just sits and rotates all the way to eastern NJ
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 3:45 am

Al, about 8 of the 50 ensembles have a roid, more than half add another 6-10 inches to this storm. So the majority have some kind of impact on the area, some major.
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 24, 2015 3:50 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Al, about 8 of the 50 ensembles have a roid, more than half add another 6-10 inches to this storm. So the majority have some kind of impact on the area, some major.
so I guess we can say the the op was no fluke. and here is the 6z nam at hr 60 so far
Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 4 Nam_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 24, 2015 3:54 am

nam hr78
Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 4 Nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip
hr81
Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 4 Nam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 24, 2015 6:20 am

@jmanley32 wrote: bigger view of what could come if this pushed west and was verbatim dayum!

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 4 Ecmwf_10

I want it, I want it, I want it, I want it!!!


Ok back to reality and cautious optimism.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Jan 24, 2015 6:28 am

NAVGEM is now more west at 6z. Trend's our friend?
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 24, 2015 6:29 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:NAVGEM is now more west at 6z. Trend's our friend?

Yes sir it is. I didn't hear no fat lady

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:00 am

Getting into a sweet spot here.Nice snow last night, better possibility for Monday, and more threats on the board! What a difference a week makes! Frank was on to this at the get together, this pattern change, and it looks like things are going our way.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:17 am

The euro has this Tuesday into wed doesn't seem to be Monday now
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:50 am

Frank this is what I was trying to post and say last night about the trailing pice of energy - I always liked this second storm better or you can say the third since last Sunday today and now Monday as the old Italians say things happen in threes!
Also remember that the energy vort just got onshore over land last night and if we get the second piece of energy which is strong kabooom
Good morning all!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:53 am

@amugs wrote:It is not done yet - once we get this storm out of the way the models will have a better handle on this next week - two pieces are looking interesting as per GFS run here.

Looks south as of now but we'll see if we get the crazy phase as shown on the gfs.

Genius or a madman. They say it's a thin line.

Today he's bordering on genius.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:35 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:It is not done yet - once we get this storm out of the way the models will have a better handle on this next week - two pieces are looking interesting as per GFS run here.

Looks south as of now but we'll see if we get the crazy phase as shown on the gfs.

Genius or a madman. They say it's a thin line.

Today he's bordering on genius.

My wife thinks oterhwise but thanks fo rthe shout out CP - coudl be a coup for my return to KING SNOW WEENIE??!!!

For the record her eis the euro EPS - trending west or go west you man!! If that second vort which is strong can get either phase which would be incredible or get close enough at the midlevels it can retrograde this LP back towards the coast - what storms parallel such come on CP, Mike Doc you know what I am talking about - PD Uno and Duo (Duece) not the same set up but the same results - big snow potential?

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 4 10ga1w2

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:46 am

nws already putting the downer on saying euro a outlier however there is potential for a classic noreaster lol make up their minds

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:53 am

Potential is the best word ever invented. It fits perfectly with forecasting. Yet if I say potential for a Godzilla, people think I'm actually forecasting one. Big difference.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:00 am

Well you potential for a roidzilla with this one IF things went exactly right, if Euro shows a similar outcome or even further west I will start to believe it a little.  06z GFS was well offshore, but the intensification piece is there which it wasn't before on most models now. Edit: Sorry I am a bit tired, i see what you are saying yes its god they leave it open for the possibility.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:01 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:00 am

GFS does handle the northern stream vorts better and had a solution close to what the euro was showing in terms of the lp blowing up off the coast and giving us light to moderate snow - we have time and it being delayed helps us why? Cause it gives the 2nd piece of energy time to catch up and A phase into a bomb nearer the coast and two possibly tug the LP west. Hey as Frank said the change is here,real and now so lets embrace it after what we have been through this winter - wouldn't you agree??

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:02 am

This is a nice look

Update #1: The Next One (1/26/15) - Page 4 Zmgrr9

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:33 am

Oh ma godee the NAMa showa lotta snow (nonna accent)

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:37 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Oh ma godee the NAMa showa lotta snow (nonna accent)

Very Happy I know it's the forbidden NAM, but map please.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:39 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Oh ma godee the NAMa showa lotta snow (nonna accent)

Very Happy I know it's the forbidden NAM, but map please.

Not out yet. Phase looks late though but we have ratios working in our favor.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:43 am

Yea, it's too far east but improved greatly at H5. Huge euro run today. Biggest of the winter.

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Post by Guest Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:45 am

[quote="amugs"]GFS does handle the northern stream vorts better and had a solution close to what the euro was showing in terms of the lp blowing up off the coast and giving us light to moderate snow - we have time and it being delayed helps us why? Cause it gives the 2nd piece of energy time to catch up and A phase into a bomb nearer the coast and two possibly tug the LP west. Hey as Frank said the change is here,real and now so lets embrace it after what we have been through this winter - wouldn't you agree??[/quote


AGREED.  After what we've had so far this is a refreshing change.  Time for optimism again.  Let's hope for a nice event Mon/Tues to get all of us solidly into the middle teens for seasonal totals.  Frank great job at the get together nailing this time period.  Impressive call.

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