Update #4: Final Snow/Ice Map, January Blitz Storm

Final Snow Map



Ice Map



This was an extremely tough forecast. Anytime you have to deal with changeovers and ice it is never easy. The one thing I am almost positive to get wrong are the timings in the upper right. Do not hold me to it. Those are just estimates based on certain models and gut feeling. The set-up is not ideal for heavy snow amounts, but I think some surprised could be in store for NYC and points north and west. Between snow and ice some news outlets may be underestimating the storm. I know some models show more snow for NYC, but I am going to stick with this for now.

We'll start an observations thread around 10pm.

Stay safe!!

Nice maps frank I'm on tail end that higher ice go be dangerous tomorrow looks like good to stay in. 3 to 6 is what I think for me too posdibly more but safe bet. Is it moving in dooner? And btw that's a long duration of ice and mix yikes. I know u said don't hold u to it but dang.

Great Job frank nice write up and I agree with you 100% on this forecast

jmanley32 wrote:Nice maps frank I'm on tail end that higher ice go be dangerous tomorrow looks like good to stay in. 3 to 6 is what I think for me too posdibly more but safe bet. Is it moving in dooner? And btw that's a long duration of ice and mix yikes. I know u said don't hold u to it but dang.

It's probably more mix/rain than ice. Ice will probably be a good 2 hour period just not sure when

U actually think nyc is going to be in the greater ice threat that's pretty rare or even unheard of by many members on the forum.

That update and map is so good Frank as usual Thanks

Ahh ok still if it comes hard could catch people off guard and get bad. Will be watching like a hawk. I hope we get the 6.

Keep up the great work and again Many Thanks!

No problem everyone. I'll be back around 9pm to answer further questions. I need a shower, glass (bottle) of wine, and dinner.

well deserved....Enjoy!

jmanley32 wrote:Ahh ok still if it comes hard could catch people off guard and get bad. Will be watching like a hawk. I hope we get the 6.

I'm definitely leaning to 6 myself. The radar looks very impressive right now. Snow already knocking on the door in philly. Expect snow to start in the metro area by around midnight.

I think depending on what the ice accumulates on will determine how dangerous it will be of course if it accumulates on trees that's a whole not her story. And I'm not talk bout nyc but frank does include them in the .1 or more which I was surprised even if it is sleet. It's a nowcast though.

Inaccuwx has snow start by 840 can that b right?

Excellent, Frank, clear and concise.Happy to be in HV NY, 4 to 8 up by me.

jmanley32 wrote:I think depending on what the ice accumulates on will determine how dangerous it will be of course if it accumulates on trees that's a whole not her story. And I'm not talk bout nyc but frank does include them in the .1 or more which I was surprised even if it is sleet. It's a nowcast though.

I just don't think there will be much of an ice problem for us for a couple of reasons. For one thing with a lot of years under my belt tracking miller A storms, if there is a changeover with these big storms, it would tend to favor sleet or rain versus ice. On a more important note, the NAM and RGEM have been trending colder with each run. If the RGEM ticks any colder, I would move that 4-8 area on Frank's map down to the NYC area.

I haven't had much time today but it looks as if a tick colder is the trend today. I said it the other day and I still believe it a few are in for unexpected accumulation. Of course this could go the other way also where surprise un-accumulation occurs, but I think the 4-8" will touch somewhere along the N Shore of LI. I think Nassau and NW Suffolk has the best shot.

BTW Great Map Frank. Your 4-8 zone does look a touch Phallic however

What I am surprised about is there is not ONE truck out salting sanding, nothing. No one has their wipers up (they usually do in my area) so I think this was underplayed by media and I expect problems tomorrow. Wether there is a ice issue or not still be careful. 4-8 would be even better, but I will not be greedy. And who knows with the ice there is a first for everything!

At what level does ice get dangerous?

Philliesfan wrote:At what level does ice get dangerous?

Any level. A lot of the accidents fom the last time were under 0.1"

sroc4 wrote:BTW Great Map Frank.  Your 4-8 zone does look a touch Phallic however

Holy crap Frank sroc is right. I couldn't have drawn a more perfect pe__s if I tried. I also remember back in November you said you had trouble forecasting LI. I think having 2 to 4 over suffolk including the north fork and just 10 miles north 6 to 10 is a little strange, but great job. and thanks.

Philliesfan wrote:At what level does ice get dangerous?

A trace of ice can be dangerous, as seen last weekend. But accretion >.25 inches begins to bring down tree limbs, and more than that is when sh*t really hits the fan.

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:BTW Great Map Frank.  Your 4-8 zone does look a touch Phallic however

Holy crap Frank sroc is right.  I couldn't have drawn a more perfect pe__s if I tried.  I also remember back in November you said you had trouble forecasting LI.  I think having 2 to 4 over suffolk including the north fork and just 10 miles north 6 to 10 is a little strange, but great job.  and thanks.

CT is a different animal. Much different climate. They always do better than LI especially when temps are marginal. P.S.- temps are already 34-35 degrees so any hint of warmup in the mid layers is going to cause snow to quickly changeover to mixed or rain. Not one model shows anything greater than 4 inches for LI, and if it does, it's probably sleet. We'll see though. Even if isolated locations out there see a 5 spot I won't be bent out over it. This is a tough forecast.

What's up Frank, Doc. Zoo, et al. nothing but crap little events out here on the East End thus far this winter. The snowblower hasn't been arisen from dormancy yet. just saying hello.

Cheers,
Nofo