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Update #4: Final Snow/Ice Map, January Blitz Storm

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Update #4: Final Snow/Ice Map, January Blitz Storm Empty Update #4: Final Snow/Ice Map, January Blitz Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:56 pm

Final Snow Map

Update #4: Final Snow/Ice Map, January Blitz Storm 1507086_876702739048153_8829996539353149086_n

Ice Map

Update #4: Final Snow/Ice Map, January Blitz Storm 10940470_876702715714822_2405533027944590923_n

This was an extremely tough forecast. Anytime you have to deal with changeovers and ice it is never easy. The one thing I am almost positive to get wrong are the timings in the upper right. Do not hold me to it. Those are just estimates based on certain models and gut feeling. The set-up is not ideal for heavy snow amounts, but I think some surprised could be in store for NYC and points north and west. Between snow and ice some news outlets may be underestimating the storm. I know some models show more snow for NYC, but I am going to stick with this for now.

We'll start an observations thread around 10pm.

Stay safe!!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:59 pm

Nice maps frank I'm on tail end that higher ice go be dangerous tomorrow looks like good to stay in. 3 to 6 is what I think for me too posdibly more but safe bet. Is it moving in dooner? And btw that's a long duration of ice and mix yikes. I know u said don't hold u to it but dang.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Aiosamoney21 Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:59 pm

Great Job frank nice write up and I agree with you 100% on this forecast

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:03 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Nice maps frank I'm on tail end that higher ice go be dangerous tomorrow looks like good to stay in. 3 to 6 is what I think for me too posdibly more but safe bet. Is it moving in dooner? And btw that's a long duration of ice and mix yikes. I know u said don't hold u to it but dang.

It's probably more mix/rain than ice. Ice will probably be a good 2 hour period just not sure when

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:05 pm

U actually think nyc is going to be in the greater ice threat that's pretty rare or even unheard of by many members on the forum.
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Post by oldtimer Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:05 pm

That update and map is so good Frank as usual Thanks

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:06 pm

Ahh ok still if it comes hard could catch people off guard and get bad. Will be watching like a hawk. I hope we get the 6.
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Post by 1190ftalt Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:07 pm

Keep up the great work and again Many Thanks!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:08 pm

No problem everyone. I'll be back around 9pm to answer further questions. I need a shower, glass (bottle) of wine, and dinner.

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Post by mako460 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:12 pm

well deserved....Enjoy!

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:27 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ahh ok still if it comes hard could catch people off guard and get bad. Will be watching like a hawk. I hope we get the 6.
I'm definitely leaning to 6 myself. The radar looks very impressive right now. Snow already knocking on the door in philly. Expect snow to start in the metro area by around midnight.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:30 pm

I think depending on what the ice accumulates on will determine how dangerous it will be of course if it accumulates on trees that's a whole not her story. And I'm not talk bout nyc but frank does include them in the .1 or more which I was surprised even if it is sleet. It's a nowcast though.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:39 pm

Inaccuwx has snow start by 840 can that b right?
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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:43 pm

Excellent, Frank, clear and concise.Happy to be in HV NY, 4 to 8 up by me.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:47 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I think depending on what the ice accumulates on will determine how dangerous it will be of course if it accumulates on trees that's a whole not her story. And I'm not talk bout nyc but frank does include them in the .1 or more which I was surprised even if it is sleet. It's a nowcast though.
I just don't think there will be much of an ice problem for us for a couple of reasons. For one thing with a lot of years under my belt tracking miller A storms, if there is a changeover with these big storms, it would tend to favor sleet or rain versus ice. On a more important note, the NAM and RGEM have been trending colder with each run. If the RGEM ticks any colder, I would move that 4-8 area on Frank's map down to the NYC area.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:57 pm

I haven't had much time today but it looks as if a tick colder is the trend today. I said it the other day and I still believe it a few are in for unexpected accumulation. Of course this could go the other way also where surprise un-accumulation occurs, but I think the 4-8" will touch somewhere along the N Shore of LI. I think Nassau and NW Suffolk has the best shot.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:59 pm

BTW Great Map Frank. Your 4-8 zone does look a touch Phallic however Razz Razz

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:06 pm

What I am surprised about is there is not ONE truck out salting sanding, nothing. No one has their wipers up (they usually do in my area) so I think this was underplayed by media and I expect problems tomorrow. Wether there is a ice issue or not still be careful. 4-8 would be even better, but I will not be greedy. And who knows with the ice there is a first for everything!
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Post by Philliesfan Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:09 pm

At what level does ice get dangerous?

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:12 pm

@Philliesfan wrote:At what level does ice get dangerous?

Any level. A lot of the accidents fom the last time were under 0.1"

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:15 pm

@sroc4 wrote:BTW Great Map Frank.  Your 4-8 zone does look a touch Phallic however Razz Razz

Holy crap Frank sroc is right. I couldn't have drawn a more perfect pe__s if I tried. I also remember back in November you said you had trouble forecasting LI. I think having 2 to 4 over suffolk including the north fork and just 10 miles north 6 to 10 is a little strange, but great job. and thanks.

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:What I am surprised about is there is not ONE truck out salting sanding, nothing.  No one has their wipers up (they usually do in my area) so I think this was underplayed by media and I expect problems tomorrow.  Wether there is a ice issue or not still be careful.  4-8 would be even better, but I will not be greedy.  And who knows with the ice there is a first for everything!

They are going to be on OT so they won't send them out any earlier than they have to...

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:25 pm

@Philliesfan wrote:At what level does ice get dangerous?

A trace of ice can be dangerous, as seen last weekend. But accretion >.25 inches begins to bring down tree limbs, and more than that is when sh*t really hits the fan.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:25 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:BTW Great Map Frank.  Your 4-8 zone does look a touch Phallic however Razz Razz

Holy crap Frank sroc is right.  I couldn't have drawn a more perfect pe__s if I tried.  I also remember back in November you said you had trouble forecasting LI.  I think having 2 to 4 over suffolk including the north fork and just 10 miles north 6 to 10 is a little strange, but great job.  and thanks.

CT is a different animal. Much different climate. They always do better than LI especially when temps are marginal. P.S.- temps are already 34-35 degrees so any hint of warmup in the mid layers is going to cause snow to quickly changeover to mixed or rain. Not one model shows anything greater than 4 inches for LI, and if it does, it's probably sleet. We'll see though. Even if isolated locations out there see a 5 spot I won't be bent out over it. This is a tough forecast.

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Post by nofoboater Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:26 pm

What's up Frank, Doc. Zoo, et al. nothing but crap little events out here on the East End thus far this winter. The snowblower hasn't been arisen from dormancy yet. just saying hello.

Cheers,
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