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January "Blitz" Storm Observations

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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 24, 2015 6:51 am

Back edge at my location.Behind it, very ragged and jagged on the radar behind back edge.Unless it fills in , probably just spotty light snow the rest of the day.No blocking, this thing just flew by.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 24, 2015 6:51 am

Som quick meso scale observations.  Doc don't be so sure you are completely done. The main surface low is now sub 1000mb just off the Delmarva coast, and should start to bomb out rather quickly.  Notice that area I circled in blue.  If you look closely the wind is in all dirctions.  This seems to be the aea where surface winds are not sure which LP to go to (divergence on the surface make for not much rising air)
January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 <a href=January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 Pmsl_210" />

What we need is for the 850mb to close off and ideally pass south of LI.  925mb already has:
January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 <a href=January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 850mb_10" />

At 700mb notice where the comma head is taking shape as depicted by the RH in green.  Expect moisture to fill back in in the L side of the comma head as the surface LP off the coast bombs and the 850mb Low closes.  There should be a second round of snow.
January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 <a href=January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 700mb_10" />

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 24, 2015 6:53 am

OK, Doc, A Plus analysis as usual.Great job on this storm, you said a few days ago the storm would surprise and it did! Got over 6 inches so far up here.Glad you cashed in on the Island as well.
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Post by HeresL Sat Jan 24, 2015 6:58 am

Thanks everyone! I've been with some of you since the channel 7 board days and this is my go to place for weather. The explanations are fantastic! I have at least 6 inches out there right now. We canceled an event for later today though and if the precip is done this early in the morning I'll be catching some crap I'm sure....
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:09 am

Although with this things speed it is entirely possible that the CCB band(s) form to late and too far N and E into New England (ie: CT, RI, Ma).  

This is the still image of the radar right now.  You can see the spotty snow on the left side of the comma head over Central Pa, NW NJ, and Upper HV etc.   Again from the meso scale maps above there is still alot of divergence in the lower levels in this area.  This is the area that we have to watch for filling and then rotating through with back side snow as we go through the morning as the surface LP deepens and 850mb Low closes off.  It may not happen until its to late for some.  Nothing we can do but watch and see.  
January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 <a href=January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 Hfd10" />

January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 Hfd_None_anim

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:15 am

measured 6" light drizzle now 32* on another note we have a new all time low by the zookeeper. official cp measured 2.5" I kid you not. cp had .45" liquid as snow. how did he come up with that number. calling cp where are you
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:18 am

Holy Crow, that is NOT what CP should see to start his day.I see an epic rant coming,LOL!
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:19 am

January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 16047110

January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 10543610

January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 10929110

January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 10931210

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:21 am

THAT is winter,Janet!!!
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:30 am

@docstox12 wrote:Holy Crow, that is NOT what CP should see to start his day.I see an epic rant coming,LOL!
doc I have a new theory as to why local mets always are conservative with their snow totals. it's the zoo keeper!!!! they (local mets) know that he (zookeeper) is always going to come in with a low snow total and the mets don't want to look bad so they low ball their forecast to be as accurate as possible. think about it Lonnie Quinn forecast 0-2" and accu wx 1-3" and we laughed at that but they were accurate according to the good ole zookeeper. looking over other snow totals most were 4-8" with Bergen and Passaic counties as the winners
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:35 am

Wow, what a great sight.

6.8 inches with some light snow still falling.

May eke out 7 out of this. Pretty exact to what Frank had on his map two days ago.

In Frank, and several others on this board, we trust.
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Post by nofoboater Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:35 am

Nice pix zoo. Slushy 3" before the changeover around 5:30am out here, roads are slick.

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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:35 am

Al, you're right, the local Mets quake with fear lest they predict totals that they suspect would go over the Zookeeper's "official" Central Park measurements. Frank's map last night was spot on!

30.7, 89%, 29.69 F Looks like radar filled in just a bit, another round of precip headed my way.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:35 am

Measured 4.5 inches of heavy wet snow. I finally got to use my new snowblower. Smile
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Post by tigernumba1 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:36 am

ended up with 4.5" before the change over to rain/mix. Its quickly diminishing snow pack, down to 3" on ground. hopefully we can get some backend snow!
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:36 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Wow, what a great sight.

6.8 inches with some light snow still falling.

May eke out 7 out of this. Pretty exact to what Frank had on his map two days ago.

In Frank, and several others on this board, we trust.

OK, CP, 6.8 looks good.Think we'll hit 7, another brief round headed up here.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:38 am

@algae888 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Holy Crow, that is NOT what CP should see to start his day.I see an epic rant coming,LOL!
doc I have a new theory as to why local mets always are conservative with their snow totals. it's the zoo keeper!!!!  they (local mets) know that he (zookeeper) is always going to come in with a  low snow total and the mets don't want to look bad so they low ball their forecast to be as accurate as possible. think about it Lonnie Quinn forecast 0-2" and accu wx 1-3" and we laughed at that but they were accurate according to the good ole zookeeper. looking over other snow totals most were 4-8" with Bergen and Passaic counties as the winners

Al, That 2.5 shall not stand if I have to break into NOAA computers myself and start changing totals I will.

And your theory is correct. Bill Evans use to joke all the time about the totals when I brought it up. He stated in one post he thought the actual average in CPK is about 5 inches higher than they actually report.
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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:46 am

nws updated disco on backend snow and snow totals
HAZARDS REMAIN UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A WINTRY MIX INLAND
AND AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW/ICE AT THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES TO THE EAST...THE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE NLY BY THIS AFT...POSSIBLY COOLING THE LOW-LEVELS
A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE FREEZING
RAIN SOUTHWARD.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 3 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THE SNOW RATIOS WERE LIKELY HIGHER.
QPF
AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WERE GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS. HIGHER
QPF FELL EAST...BUT IT WAS A WETTER SNOW WITH LOWER RATIOS. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR RETURNS.
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Post by WeatherBob Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:47 am

Caldwell , NJ - Essex County - 6 in
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:47 am

Anyone seeing any sleet or freezing rain? There's my report!

January "Blitz" Storm Observations  - Page 8 10940410


Last edited by Dunnzoo on Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:50 am; edited 2 times in total

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Analog96 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:48 am

@algae888 wrote:measured 6" light drizzle now 32* on another note we have a new all time low by the zookeeper. official cp measured 2.5" I kid you not. cp had .45" liquid as snow. how did he come up with that number. calling cp where are you
Had 0.46" liquid as snow here and 5.1".

Did he measure in the street?

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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:49 am

Snow intensity increasing again.Radar filled in a bit as Doc accurately pointed oyut.Looks like a band forming near us CP.

30.7, 90%, 29.69 F

Will take that extra inch or two, Al.

It's November in January, CP!!!!
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Post by Analog96 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:49 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:Anyone seeing any sleet or freezing rain?

Light freezing rain here,.

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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:52 am

All snow here, moderate now.
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Post by Radz Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:58 am

Light snow 31.4* 7.5" Cortlandt Manor, gorgeous out there - picture perfect
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