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January 29-30, 2015 Clipper

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Vinnydula
Math23x7
Taffy
essexcountypete
SNOW MAN
Snow88
rb924119
skinsfan1177
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Analog96
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docstox12
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January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 Empty Re: January 29-30, 2015 Clipper

Post by amugs Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:14 pm

RGEM 2-4 for NYC, NNJ and East

Look at MAINE COASTAL - dohh!!

January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 UCi0kpo

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January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 Empty Re: January 29-30, 2015 Clipper

Post by amugs Wed Jan 28, 2015 1:16 pm

Euro 12Z

1-3"/2-4"

January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f45

City and LI again

January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f51

January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f54

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January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 Empty Re: January 29-30, 2015 Clipper

Post by aiannone Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:19 pm

Solid 5-8" incoming here at LSC for tomorrow night into Friday. Up to 10" possible in upslope areas and into parts of the Northeast Kingdom (where LSC is) from the inverted trough. I'm ready. Ohh and a low of -20 tonight and 0* for Saturday.
January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 10922610
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January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 Empty Re: January 29-30, 2015 Clipper

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:05 pm

Nice! Probably no more then a couple inches around here. I'm going to make a snow map tonight

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January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 Empty Re: January 29-30, 2015 Clipper

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:29 pm

This thing explodes after passing us, Boston is stupid buried, my family lives there and says its crazy! Another 6-12 coukd be near 4 to 5 feet, yikes is that a record fir them on the ground? Looks like very tight pressure gradiant, Frank does wind look like a issue to you, one thing i hate about wind is when its bitterly cold. Models seem to show very strong gusts but I know what you have said before but was wondering what your take was, yesterday and today was not fun to be outside.
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January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 Empty Re: January 29-30, 2015 Clipper

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:48 pm

No wind

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:36 pm

I was hoping for some more snow to add to the snowpack
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:37 pm

Snow will move in late tomorrow and continue into Friday morning. The greatest threat for minor accumulation will be N&W of NYC. There was a chance for redevelopment off the coast but I do not believe it's going to happen. Timing is found on the map as well. Have fun.

January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 January_29th_clipper_map

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January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 Empty Re: January 29-30, 2015 Clipper

Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:44 pm

Hey frank, how do you make these maps? Like, where do you get your original blank map, draw so cleanly on it and add your text? Great map, btw, exactly what I was thinking. I might even just say a general C-2" because this thing seems like it will be kind of moisture-starved on its southern flank....

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:47 pm

Yea I was not going to make a map but wanted to drive the point across that northern sections should see a decent snowfall. Here is the blank map.

January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 Blank_new

To draw and put text, I use photoshop which my brother downloaded for me on my computer. However, you can use your default paint program. Works well too. Utilize the paint bucket tool to fill in the counties.

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Post by rb924119 Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:54 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Yea I was not going to make a map but wanted to drive the point across that northern sections should see a decent snowfall. Here is the blank map.

January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 Blank_new

To draw and put text, I use photoshop which my brother downloaded for me on my computer. However, you can use your default paint program. Works well too. Utilize the paint bucket tool to fill in the counties.

Thanks buddy. I think I'll try to actually make one for the next storm; that way it won't just look like I'm going along with everybody else's lol I forecast all the time on my FB, but only via text, which is what I reference to on here even though I never actually post it (if that makes sense?).

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January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 Empty Re: January 29-30, 2015 Clipper

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:03 pm

You should post it. I always enjoy reading your thought's. By the way, you may have told us but I forgot. Are you a Met?

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:16 pm

Ok so Nam has the clipper nice and juicy at hr 27, then dies at hour 30
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:18 pm

Alex, the clipper actually splits into 2 systems it appears. The piece that splits off heads into Canada. The other piece comes down into the northeast but by the time it gets here has already lost most of its energy due to the split.

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:19 pm

Yea well, how is that going to give me 4-8" like the NWS is predicting. This looks nothing like the 12z GFS
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:23 pm

4-8 seems high. 2-4/3-6 is better forecast

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:4-8 seems high. 2-4/3-6 is better forecast

Hmmm, well then the NWS would have to lower their amounts. They updated this afternoon to 4-9" for me.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:03 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Snow will move in late tomorrow and continue into Friday morning. The greatest threat for minor accumulation will be N&W of NYC. There was a chance for redevelopment off the coast but I do not believe it's going to happen. Timing is found on the map as well. Have fun.

January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 January_29th_clipper_map

I like it! Hoping it outperforms and gives me closer to three!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:38 am

Frank with all due respect I can see the tight pressure gradiant clearly on all major models, I know usually the wind needs convection to bring to surface however Friday appearsto not need that with passage of cold front and NWS is blowing the horn for Friday/sat on possible wind advisory level winds, NOW THATS COLD BRRRR! I honestly say that I could do without this, too cold.

WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN THOUGH...IS VERY COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY EVENT AS
GUSTS APPROACH 45 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO AND A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC.
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Post by docstox12 Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:23 am

Clipper still on track for 1 to 2 inches up here as per NWS. Maybe another 1/2 inch with cold front passage Fri AM.Brutal cold with high winds coming after that.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 29, 2015 7:54 am

doc Frank said not wind, I was wondering why as i posted above, i he seeing something NWS and I are not?
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Post by Analog96 Thu Jan 29, 2015 8:01 am

@jmanley32 wrote:doc Frank said not wind, I was wondering why as i posted above, i he seeing something NWS and I are not?

I think he was referring to when the snow falls.

The wind comes later.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 29, 2015 9:00 am

Oh ok yeah I should specified I meant with passage.  Go be freaking cold with 40 plus gusts sheesh.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 29, 2015 9:22 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:You should post it. I always enjoy reading your thought's. By the way, you may have told us but I forgot. Are you a Met?

Technically, yes. But I'm only doing some consulting work for a couple of weather companies at the moment, not actually professionally forecasting (YET) lol

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Post by Snow88 Thu Jan 29, 2015 9:43 am

January 29-30, 2015 Clipper  - Page 2 29m55pt
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