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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by algae888 Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:02 am

nws disco....
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER AND WITH THE CURRENT
TRACK AND MAGNITUDE...WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND VERY GUSTY
WINDS.
THE TRACK IS AT TO JUST EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AFOREMENTIONED
AND WITH RAW MODELS TEMPS OF 34-35 DEGREES...PRECIP SHOULD BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPS TO WET BULB VALUES RATHER QUICKLY WHICH
WOULD GIVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FREEZING OR BELOW. THEREFORE
FORECAST HAS INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION GOING INTO SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE AT NIGHT.

THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ONTARIO BEHIND IT. THE HIGH CENTER STAYS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE MONDAY. THE SECONDARY LOW THEN DEEPENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AGAIN RIGHT NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND THEN TRACKING TO
NOVA SCOTIA. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS LOW AND
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE LOW...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:09 am

Just got up and read all 8 pages I knew it had to be good news. Lokks to me with all the runs the coast does great my question is it should all be snow correct no issues
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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:18 am

6z gfs is east
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Gfs_namer_087_850_temp_mslp_precip
6z nam we get crushed
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip
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Post by algae888 Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:19 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Just got up and read all 8 pages I knew it had to be good news. Lokks to me with all the runs the coast does great my question is it should all be snow correct no issues
skins still a lot of details to be worked out but looks very promising the next 10 days.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:35 am

@algae888 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Just got up and read all 8 pages I knew it had to be good news. Lokks to me with all the runs the coast does great my question is it should all be snow correct no issues
skins still a lot of details to be worked out but looks very promising the next 10 days.
Yeah it sure does algae. I noticed in reading couple things the kicker looks weak which is good thing. Also some phasing only with GFS.
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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:46 am

@Math23x7 wrote:I looked at the weatherbell 0Z EURO run.  at hr 90 for NYC and LI 850 mb, 925 mb, and surface temperatures are above freezing.  Not until the tail end of the storm do temperatures crash below freezing here...

Not true Mike.  First true surface temps as dictated by evaporative cooling will not be seen here.  One of the most important aspects of this is the pressure falls and the rate at which they occur, esp if there is little to no phasing with the northern stream before passing 40N Lat.  As you can see below there is a very small time frame during which the 850's creep above 0*C.  As you can see they crash hard and fast in response to the rapid pressure falls.  The details of this will not be seen with much precition on these global models with 6 hr time stamps.  With the heaviest precip falling during this time frame I am not worried by this run verbatim.
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 <a href=Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Ecmwf_12" />
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 <a href=Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Ecmwf_13" />
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 <a href=Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Ecmwf_14" />

As Frank Mentioned this is all still delicate but is growing stronger and stronger by the day.  More Northern stream interaction is literally only 6hrs or so difference on most of these runs.  As I am sure like me many of you are a little gun shy so until I have my white gold on the ground the idea of a late shift S and E is still quite possible given the set up.   This is not meant to send out neg vibes, just keeping it real.  Based on the current data a complete miss is very unlikely at this time; however.  The Euro ens held thee ground and look fantastic with a BM mean. And take note usually these very strong storms often end up with a track slight west of the where one thinks. Personally I think with a track just inside the BM would benefit all of us even though it might mean a transition to slop for me for a brief time.
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 <a href=Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Eps_sl11" />


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:50 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:49 am

Al I wouldnt worry about the 06z GFS its only slightly east and as we know the 06z and 18z do not have the best run record, can't wait to see the 12z. Love the NWS disco sounds promising.
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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:01 am

There were subtle changes at H5 last night on the EURO/GFS that I did not like. Then on the 6z GFS they became more glaring. If this is the start of a trend...that would stink. Big time.

Two things I'm seeing is the southern stream vort/trough is shearing out or going flat. Secondly, the phase with the northern and southern jets is occurring too late. Big runs today

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:03 am

Yeah Al I see you omitted the part after that of the NWS disco lol
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:04 am

What a way to wake up from very little sleep lets hope lunch time is a fun time : )
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:24 am

Frank do you see this being a problem or do u think we are still on track? Euro ensembles looked good with at least half showing godzilla or near.
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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:30 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:I looked at the weatherbell 0Z EURO run.  at hr 90 for NYC and LI 850 mb, 925 mb, and surface temperatures are above freezing.  Not until the tail end of the storm do temperatures crash below freezing here...

Not true Mike.  First true surface temps as dictated by evaporative cooling will not be seen here.  One of the most important aspects of this is the pressure falls and the rate at which they occur, esp if there is little to no phasing with the northern stream before passing 40N Lat.  As you can see below there is a very small time frame during which the 850's creep above 0*C.  As you can see they crash hard and fast in response to the rapid pressure falls.  The details of this will not be seen with much precition on these global models with 6 hr time stamps.  With the heaviest precip falling during this time frame I am not worried by this run verbatim.
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 <a href=Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Ecmwf_12" />
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 <a href=Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Ecmwf_13" />
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 <a href=Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Ecmwf_14" />

As Frank Mentioned this is all still delicate but is growing stronger and stronger by the day.  More Northern stream interaction is literally only 6hrs or so difference on most of these runs.  As I am sure like me many of you are a little gun shy so until I have my white gold on the ground the idea of a late shift S and E is still quite possible given the set up.   This is not meant to send out neg vibes, just keeping it real.  Based on the current data a complete miss is very unlikely at this time; however.  The Euro ens held thee ground and look fantastic with a BM mean.  And take note usually these very strong storms often end up with a track slight west of the where one thinks.  Personally I think with a track just inside the BM would benefit all of us even though it might mean a transition to slop for me for a brief time.  
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 <a href=Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Eps_sl11" />

That scatter is a little too far east for my liking, i dont know if i like how this is looking as of now, signal still there but another miss or scrape would be par for the course this year.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:34 am

Last night everything great today not so much. This is enough to make anyone nuts.
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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:46 am

Tom there is a clear cluster to the L of the mean. There are a few stray LP way way east that brings the mean to the BM. I feel ya though regarding the setup. Its a slippery slope. 12 z and 00z are critical.
[img]Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 6 Eps_sl12[/img]

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:10 am

What time are the next model runs
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:11 am

Looks to me more L on the west side of the line
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:19 am

Def leaning L with the cluster. Again there are a few LP, circled, that are out liers that if you eliminated would bring the mean west a bit

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:28 am

Typically models like to lose storms or trend differently in track between 49-84 hours. Tomorrow 12z will be most critical.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:29 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:There were subtle changes at H5 last night on the EURO/GFS that I did not like. Then on the 6z GFS they became more glaring. If this is the start of a trend...that would stink. Big time.

Two things I'm seeing is the southern stream vort/trough is shearing out or going flat. Secondly, the phase with the northern and southern jets is occurring too late. Big runs today

Thanks for giving it to us straight Frank. Still hopeful but threading the needle.

The lesson of this winter is, expect little and hope for something. That's my motto for the rest of this winter, I'm not gonna set myself up for a big storm just to be letdown. I still see plenty that can go wrong here, from changeover in coastal areas to dry in N and NW areas, to further east.  3 days out nothings set in stone.
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:55 am

I've stayed quiet if anyone's noticed.  Because of how the winter has gone I'm jaded.  I expect negative trends inside day 3.  It's happened with EVERY storm so far.  There's a full page of nervous posts here very similar to the one I got "yelled" at yesterday for posting myself.  Too early to get excited IMHO.
But I'm hoping as much as any of you.

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:58 am

Hazardous Weather Outlook now posted for entire Metro for 'potential significant Nor'easter'
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:59 am

If 12z moves at all east you will hear me lol, even in NJ. I have a feeling things continue where they are or even slightly more west, but right where they were last night was perfect, it could be a better setup but I am hopeful.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:00 am

Yep soul well we know its possible, and I am glad NWS is on board, however if you read their discussion or at least the last one they discuss all the issues Frank has pointed out.  Wishing and hoping : ) Accuwx appears to be more impressed with mon night into Tuesday with 5 inches total, saying 1-3 sat for me with rain mixing in. But we know then better as innaccuwx.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:06 am

Notice they mention VERY GUSTY winds too(this in the discussion not the HWO) I am lacking much sleep this better friggin pan out!


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:34 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:12 am

skins it was the 06z only run so far today and the NAM wasn't bad FWIW (not much). So to say todays runs do not look good can't be said until at least after the 12z runs, lets all make a prayer circle.
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