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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Screw the NAM. 00z GFS commencing soon. I'll have a play by play

You and the NAM should totally get it on Frank. It's so obvious your in love Embarassed

Only European models turn me on.

Not the software


Haha that's funny. cheers
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:16 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:soul what site was that, Frank any substance to what soul read?

It's the American WX regional NYC blog. It's horribly messy usually with a lot of trolling (Thank GOD Frank has this blog), but I check it during big storm threats cuz every so often you'll get a good post or two.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:21 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:soul what site was that, Frank any substance to what soul read?

Jman, verbatim yes.

But...Who cares.

Actually, this sexy

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:22 pm

With the GFS starting up soon, the one thing I'll be looking for is the northern energy making strides tonight and phasing in sooner with our saturday storm. The Euro ensembles hinted at it, so its something to watch for if it occurs would cause a much more dynamic/closer to the coast scenario.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:23 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:With the GFS starting up soon, the one thing I'll be looking for is the northern energy making strides tonight and phasing in sooner with our saturday storm. The Euro ensembles hinted at it,  so its something to watch for if it occurs would cause a much more dynamic/closer to the coast scenario.

Yup.

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:26 pm

That's it. I've been forced to change my avatar. Very Happy Very Happy
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:30 pm

As I sit here eating my cheez-itz, I notice the GFS has initialized. Lets do this.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:34 pm

Hahahaha The one thing that we can't forget is that the energy that could be responsible for the development of the "kicker" will not be making it onshore of the North American continent until about 30 hours prior to the onset of precipitation....Anything that we see until then will still be just an educated guess. Look at the changes that resulted with tomorrow's clipper within the 30-36 hour window because of the same exact reason.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:39 pm

Through hour 24, we have our phase in the SW US to develop the low pressure system. It already looks a tad stronger.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:39 pm

Not to mention all of the other pieces, including the northern energy that could phase with it. That doesn't enter the U.S.'s upper-air network until less than 24 hours away from the start of things.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:40 pm

MJO in phase 8 is going to do wonders on the STJ. At hour 30 I am seeing enhanced precip streaming up from the Gulf and Caribbean already.


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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:41 pm

Hour 33 shows a much stronger vort phasing into the southern energy compared to 18z.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:44 pm

Frank, honestly, I don't even pay attention to the 06/18z runs; since they're only initialized on the forecasts of the 00/12z runs, I just feel the initial error is already sufficiently large outside of about 84 hours. Just my opinion....

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:44 pm

Hour 45, I like how this is going so far. The energy was stronger so the surface low is already bombing out. It looks more compact as well. Heights rising quicker along EC.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:46 pm

Yep, definitely just saw that too.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:48 pm

The only thing that I'm seeing right now that is making me a little nervous is the western ridge; it seems like it's almost too broad and flat for a left turn up the coast....

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:48 pm

Hour 51, everything looks good. Especially the main vort. Heights easily higher along EC than 18z. Now lets get that northern stream to drop

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:48 pm

Damn it!!! I can't see a thing. Tropical tidbits site is stuck on hour 6!
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:49 pm

The energy associated with the kicker just comes onshore at 54 lol That thing is gonna be HAULIN' lmao

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:51 pm

Hour 63, there's our northern stream north of Montana. Lets see it dig

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:52 pm

Kicker is SIGNIFICANTLY weaker this run compared to 18z

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:53 pm

The mean trough is going neutral sooner compared to 18z GFS at 69

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:53 pm

Main trough is definitely deeper

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:55 pm

Northern energy looks much more consolidated this run versus 18z-it's not sheared out. This may allow for more phasing

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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:55 pm

Images?

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