Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Reflecting my thinking atm, can still change, should mention possibility for more esp eastskinsfan1177 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:Well...
Looking nice hope for Euro though
Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Jan 24, 2015 3:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Frank your analysis was good, and no its not a clipper, they are weak, they don't break fiya! Bring it on, no sleep here for next 48 hrs lol, well some but not much. Runs gonna be big on this till Monday. Frank your pretty confident in at least a 12+ event, I know you do not know exactly where the banding setsup but do u think the west move of the euro holds? My daughter didn't like the snow what a shame, she will have to be taught lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
jmanley32 wrote:Frank your analysis was good, and no its not a clipper, they are weak, they don't break fiya! Bring it on, no sleep here for next 48 hrs lol, well some but not much. Runs gonna be big on this till Monday. Frank your pretty confident in at least a 12+ event, I know you do not know exactly where the banding setsup but do u think the west move of the euro holds? My daughter didn't like the snow what a shame, she will have to be taught lol
i'm going to stay on the cautious side and not get too excited yet it seems a given we'll get a nice hit of snow but Boston usually wins in these situations
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Soul, this has been happening for years.How many storms I remember from the past when they got caught with their pants down and were raising snow totals from 2 to 4 to 4 to 6 to 6 to 8 etc etc even as the storm was progressing.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Guys the whole evolution of this storm as frank explained is not a clipper as we see it but northern energy,streat that is finally coming into play. Awesome analysis again
IN FRANK WE TRUST
IN FRANK WE TRUST
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
BD Blizzard perfect example. I went from a forecast of 2-4 inches to finally 24-30 in a 24 hour period as it was snowing
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:BD Blizzard perfect example. I went from a forecast of 2-4 inches to 24-30 in a 24 hour period as it was snowing
Now THAT'S pinpoint accurate forecasting for you,CP!!!!!
Yep, I remember that well. 1 to 3 inches a few days before to all red blizzard maps the day of the storm.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
amugs wrote:Guys the whole evolution of this storm as frank explained is not a clipper as we see it but northern energy,streat that is finally coming into play. Awesome analysis again
IN FRANK WE TRUST
Ok, Mugs, I now understand the evolution of this and have a better grip on why it's happening.You blow out a lot of circuits at my age, takes me a while,LOL!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Accuweather thinking already
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Looks like they buy that GFS model posted above here somewhere.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
docstox12 wrote:Soul, this has been happening for years.How many storms I remember from the past when they got caught with their pants down and were raising snow totals from 2 to 4 to 4 to 6 to 6 to 8 etc etc even as the storm was progressing.
Doc last year perect example on 3 storm 1,3 27 and 2,3 super bowl! Just the nature of the TV media world especially after 2001 debacle and this is not that at all
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Yep, now I remember that Mugs.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
If NWS issues a statement for a storm of this magnitude, the panic will be very interesting. Supermarkets shelves will be bone dry.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Bottom line is this...if it does happen all of us snow weenies will be in our glory and we will get our yearly average snowfall in one fell swoop. If it busts on the lighter side we still get a decent snowfall and that is what we are all about here on this board. And...to top it off the pattern has changed and we are not even in Feb. yet so we still have 6 weeks of possibilites to go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
mako460- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
The GFS trend is becoming popular now
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
The cutoff is going to make some people upset. I can guarantee that. LI and SNE in a prime spot. Eastern PA in a risk zone. Those in the middle it could be 50/50
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Grselig wrote:If NWS issues a statement for a storm of this magnitude, the panic will be very interesting. Supermarkets shelves will be bone dry.
And the streets will be cleared and plowed the next day, two days later at the latest.
I've never understood the panic, this isn't WDC or Atlanta.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
During Monday, New York City will be on the northern fringe of the snow. However, people heading south or with connecting flights in the region could have some trouble.
As the storm strengthens Monday night into Tuesday, it may turn northward. As this happens there is a possibility of heavy snow affecting parts of Long Island and Connecticut.
If the storm was to strengthen rapidly, then heavy snow could be thrown farther west across New York City for a time.
The storm will be much colder than most systems the area has seen so that most of the snow that falls will stick to roads.
Accuweathers Alex Sosnowski thinking.
seems legit as of this point
As the storm strengthens Monday night into Tuesday, it may turn northward. As this happens there is a possibility of heavy snow affecting parts of Long Island and Connecticut.
If the storm was to strengthen rapidly, then heavy snow could be thrown farther west across New York City for a time.
The storm will be much colder than most systems the area has seen so that most of the snow that falls will stick to roads.
Accuweathers Alex Sosnowski thinking.
seems legit as of this point
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Their is the possibility that this thing gets pulled to the coast?
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
This is what concenrns meFrank_Wx wrote:The cutoff is going to make some people upset. I can guarantee that. LI and SNE in a prime spot. Eastern PA in a risk zone. Those in the middle it could be 50/50
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
So tonight model runs key and tomorrow's too. I will take the last Euro and be happy lol
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
NjWeatherGuy wrote:This is what concenrns meFrank_Wx wrote:The cutoff is going to make some people upset. I can guarantee that. LI and SNE in a prime spot. Eastern PA in a risk zone. Those in the middle it could be 50/50
I know. It would kill me if just east gets 24 inches and Wayne gets an inch or 2. ugh
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Frank when do you think if at all the hype will start in mass media and grocery stores will be crazy i was going to go shopping tomorrow anyways (before knew bout this) do u think i'll be okay in terms of rediculous lines if I go before noon? I hope I can at least get a foot, 36 inches is insane and hard to believe but with thie way this eveolving its entirely possible and as said earlier I have known Frank since late 2013 and he has never jumped into godzilla storm mode and swore like heck on the forum about a blizzard, the threat is real and if tonight models trend (forget the 18z IMO) then we can really start to get confident.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Jeff Smith said on Twitter he has major concern for Monday so i'm assuming ABC is all over this, the rest of the local METS i don't know but they will all have to take this seriously if this storm is real and not messing around
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
RJB Its the weekend The regular media people are off They wont get into it untll late tomorrow at lease not calling for B--------
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Southern New England Weather: I'm not mad at this...
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
oldtimer wrote:RJB Its the weekend The regular media people are off They wont get into it untll late tomorrow at lease not calling for B--------
i think the B word will stay with NE and L.I not the city and west
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