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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:57 am

scott and frank I mentioned earlier how you guys and others have said that el-nino winters are back loaded. looks like this might be the case this winter even though cpc hasn.t officially said this is el-nino. would they change their thinking if this storm and the next few weeks pan out? plus frank you.re original winter outlook might just verify.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:59 am

@algae888 wrote:scott and frank I mentioned earlier how you guys and others have said that el-nino winters are back loaded.  looks like this might be the case this winter even though cpc hasn.t officially said this is el-nino. would they change their thinking if this storm and the next few weeks pan out? plus frank you.re original winter outlook might just verify.

I think they are going to have too. We shall see.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:06 am

Anyone buying into Amy freeze forecast nyc 12 inches
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Post by carvin1079 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:08 am

No yesterday morning she said nothing so in 12 hours she will add 12 more

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Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:10 am

Looked like 20 miles just west of nyc 6 to 12 that just baffles me
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:11 am

ok i'm hearing that this storm may have an eye like feature and who ever gets under that could dry slot and keep acc from being historic. any truth to that and where would that most likely set up?
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Post by meeka312 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:12 am

Question guys, I work in NYC and live in CNJ by the coast, I usually take the bus my personal car is a nissan xterra (beast) would I be smarter driving to work tomorrow?

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:15 am

@meeka312 wrote:Question guys, I work in NYC and live in CNJ by the coast, I usually take the bus my personal car is a nissan xterra (beast) would I be smarter driving to work tomorrow?
as of now thru tom afternoon only expecting 1-3" of snow. the heavy stuff comes tom night into tues. so if you like driving in the snow it shouldn't be too bad. I do not think mass transit will be affected until after rush hour tom night and on tues
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:17 am

@algae888 wrote:ok i'm hearing that this storm may have an eye like feature and who ever gets under that could dry slot and keep acc from being historic. any truth to that and where would that most likely set up?

I don't think we will have to wory about that Al. IF an eye wall structure were to develop it would be tight around the LP center which will be at or near the BM for the most part. Usually cyclones with that kind of structure have the dry slot on the SE and E flank which we will not be. Here is the 850 Temp and MSLP profile. Look it does have a "Warm" Core (I say that loosely)
[img]Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 37 Ecmwf_23[/img]

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:19 am

Al I said that and the eye is over the ocean, ryan maue posted a image yesterday of the warm core. And sroc I was the first to post that yesterday so give me credit lol
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:20 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:ok i'm hearing that this storm may have an eye like feature and who ever gets under that could dry slot and keep acc from being historic. any truth to that and where would that most likely set up?

I don't think we will have to wory about that Al.  IF an eye wall structure were to develop it would be tight around the LP center which will be at or near the BM for the most part.  Usually cyclones with that kind of structure have the dry slot on the SE and E flank which we will not be.  Here is the 850 Temp and MSLP profile.  Look it does have a "Warm" Core (I say that loosely)  
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 37 <a href=Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 37 Ecmwf_23" />
WOW! a winter hurricane. can't wait to see the satellite pics from this storm. trying to stay calm but the ceiling on this is something most of us have never seen
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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:22 am

First up is the 9z SREF. Beautiful hit with members leaning west.

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 37 29narh3

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 37 29narh3
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:23 am

@algae888 wrote:
@meeka312 wrote:Question guys, I work in NYC and live in CNJ by the coast, I usually take the bus my personal car is a nissan xterra (beast) would I be smarter driving to work tomorrow?
as of now thru tom afternoon only expecting 1-3" of snow. the heavy stuff comes tom night into tues. so if you like driving in the snow it shouldn't be too bad. I do not think mass transit will be affected until after rush hour tom night and on tues
It does seem most serious travel issues will hold off until after rush hour tomorrow night. This is also the type of storm where someone (multiple people?) in my office who don't follow this stuff closely are almost certain to say tomorrow afternoon "I thought they said we were getting two feet? It's only a couple inches," before having it explained that the worst (best?) comes later.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:25 am

Well if that doesn't express how volatile this forecast still is Idk what will hahahaha 6-12 sigma?!!! That's ridiculous

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:34 am

@rb924119 wrote:Well if that doesn't express how volatile this forecast still is Idk what will hahahaha 6-12 sigma?!!! That's ridiculous

What is that rb?? 6-12 sigma?

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by meeka312 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:35 am

@Snow88 wrote:First up is the 9z SREF. Beautiful hit with members leaning west.

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 37 29narh3

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 37 29narh3

Thanks guys.

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Post by mancave25 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:35 am

Does anyone thing the lp could jog a little west today

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:38 am

@mancave25 wrote:Does anyone thing the lp could jog a little west today

Possible. Like pretty much all the storms this year, sublte changes inside 48hrs has occurred.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:38 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Accuweather map means business; Everyone is on board. Even TWC map has NYC in 12-18" snows

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 37 Img_6518

A thing of beauty!!!!!!!!!!

Good morning Doc. See I told you I fixed the snow machine, but WOW I didn't know it was going to go NUTS.
The bad thing is I'm probably going to miss out on the really BIG totals. 😢
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:41 am

Thought the sref has it more west a tick
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Post by mancave25 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:42 am

Not if it shifts west today epa might get into the big totals

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:43 am

hearing sref mean total qpf for nyc is 1,75" and 2" for long island with many west leaning members
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:44 am

@mancave25 wrote:Not if it shifts west today epa might get into the big totals

Lets hope so.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:45 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Well if that doesn't express how volatile this forecast still is Idk what will hahahaha 6-12 sigma?!!! That's ridiculous

What is that rb?? 6-12 sigma?

So these maps are of the average sea level-pressure and standard deviation. This is why means are not always meaningful. The 6-12 sigma is really important because it denotes the "certainty" of a particular solution. Think of an ideal bell-curve. 1 sigma, the middle third of the graph that includes the peak, denotes a 67% (or close to, I don't exactly remember the precise numbers) likelihood of a particular outcome happening. 2 sigma would expand the bell curve sideways and drop the peak to something like 40%. If you continue to extrapolate that, you can see how much uncertainty lies with the forecast of surface pressure in these models. To look at it another way, 1 sigma includes 67% of all possible scenarios, 2 sigma- 81%, 3-99.__%. Basically, the higher the sigma, the broader and shorter the bell curve because it shows that any solution has just as good of a chance of verifying as any other. In this case, there are a bunch of solutions that deepen the low more than the mean, but also that bring it further west. Does that make sense?

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:47 am

This may help more-

http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/images/normal-distrubution-large.gif

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