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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 38 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by mancave25 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:47 am

When is frank going to change is avatar to a roidzilla

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:48 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Ratios are 12:1 15:1 20:1 depending where you are

When the bulk of the snow falls up here, it will be about 20 degrees.They predict 10 to 14 with a 10:1 ratio.How do I calculate what I would get with that temp?

Doc. Frank posted the euro around 3 AM last night that had the ratios figured in. It had New York City for 40 inches with a bull's-eye around it. we were in the 30 to 36 and bull's-eye.

If verified for us that would rival two of the biggest I've seen in the last 20 years the January 1996 where we got 34 inches and of course February 2010 we received 36 inches. I guess we're shooting to beat that one. Hard to believe.

Someone had a chart last night at 20° are ratios would be about 18 to 1. Of course there's more than just temperature involved so that's a rough estimate.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:48 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Well if that doesn't express how volatile this forecast still is Idk what will hahahaha 6-12 sigma?!!! That's ridiculous

What is that rb?? 6-12 sigma?

So these maps are of the average sea level-pressure and standard deviation. This is why means are not always meaningful. The 6-12 sigma is really important because it denotes the "certainty" of a particular solution. Think of an ideal bell-curve. 1 sigma, the middle third of the graph that includes the peak, denotes a 67% (or close to, I don't exactly remember the precise numbers) likelihood of a particular outcome happening. 2 sigma would expand the bell curve sideways and drop the peak to something like 40%. If you continue to extrapolate that, you can see how much uncertainty lies with the forecast of surface pressure in these models. To look at it another way, 1 sigma includes 67% of all possible scenarios, 2 sigma- 81%, 3-99.__%. Basically, the higher the sigma, the broader and shorter the bell curve because it shows that any solution has just as good of a chance of verifying as any other. In this case, there are a bunch of solutions that deepen the low more than the mean, but also that bring it further west. Does that make sense?

Yes Thanks!

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:52 am

The duration of this storm is at least 18 hours with poss 30 hours correct
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Post by deadrabbit79 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:52 am

Ok so lee goldberg tweeted that its not a lock for a major storm, likelihood is very high bit not a lock. So i tweeted him back and asked why he just cant lock it in especially based on last nights models? He replied and said its not all about models, storm has to intensify at right time. Is he just bs'ing?

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Post by mancave25 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:53 am

Why r so many mets and nws under playing snow totals and this storm

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:53 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Well if that doesn't express how volatile this forecast still is Idk what will hahahaha 6-12 sigma?!!! That's ridiculous

What is that rb?? 6-12 sigma?

So these maps are of the average sea level-pressure and standard deviation. This is why means are not always meaningful. The 6-12 sigma is really important because it denotes the "certainty" of a particular solution. Think of an ideal bell-curve. 1 sigma, the middle third of the graph that includes the peak, denotes a 67% (or close to, I don't exactly remember the precise numbers) likelihood of a particular outcome happening. 2 sigma would expand the bell curve sideways and drop the peak to something like 40%. If you continue to extrapolate that, you can see how much uncertainty lies with the forecast of surface pressure in these models. To look at it another way, 1 sigma includes 67% of all possible scenarios, 2 sigma- 81%, 3-99.__%. Basically, the higher the sigma, the broader and shorter the bell curve because it shows that any solution has just as good of a chance of verifying as any other. In this case, there are a bunch of solutions that deepen the low more than the mean, but also that bring it further west. Does that make sense?

Yes Thanks!  

It's kind of hard to explain via text alone, but once you "get it", you get it lol there's no way to like easily explain it lmao

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:59 am

I will cut the mets on TV and at the weather service some slack for being cautious to go all-in. These models show a historic, debilitating storm. Once they go all-in and start calling it that way, a lot of wheels go into motion (government, commerce, private financial interests). It's one thing to be wrong on a 2-4 forecast. Another to wind up with egg on your face for a 12-24" forecast. They are at least strongly hinting of the possibility and issuing watches to that effect so people can start to prepare.
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Post by mancave25 Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:03 am

But the public what's to know the right details that way they could get prepared for whatever comes

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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 38 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:05 am

9z SREF Plume has a mean of 21.7 inches for NYC

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150125&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=41.834528837056816&mLON=-72.71068251953125&mTYP=roadmap

Surprised
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:06 am

Good mornig ya'll.

Well what a frickin night of runs folkds.

King Euro did not budge and this was most unbelievable to see.

Storm duration is in the range of 30 hours +-2 for NYC Metro (LI 34)

Snow fall rates may rival the great blizzard of 1983 with the ccb bands depicted on the euro and cmc. 1-2"+ per hour for about 8-12 hrs in NNJ on east

Winds 25-40 mph NYC metro and 50-75 out on LI

Temps mid 20' all over

Snow Ratios 15:1 to 22:1 - 850 temps at -10 to -14

Amount of snow well.............historic

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 38 281u51k

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:07 am

@mancave25 wrote:But the public what's to know the right details that way they could get prepared for whatever comes

Agreed. And I think that's why the tone of everything did change quite a bit overnight. If you look at the NWS watches this morning and the discussion of the storm from the mets now they are definitely advising people of how bad this COULD be. It's just taking them a while to get there to say it definitively. baby steps. lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:07 am

@Snow88 wrote:9z SREF Plume has a mean of 21.7 inches for NYC

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150125&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=41.834528837056816&mLON=-72.71068251953125&mTYP=roadmap

Surprised

Yup

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 38 Sref_namer_048_700_rh

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:07 am

Sroc, to illustrate the point of standard deviation in real-time, take a look at the SREF postages stamps. Look at where all of the individual members are "putting" the actual center of the surface circulation in relation to the mean. There are intensity and timing issues as well to consider, but it gives a good example.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/f51.gif

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:08 am

The map I just posted shows the ratios involed - 20-36" area wide - eastern end of LI will be a obliterated in snow, wind, tidal surge

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:09 am

sref plumes look at all the members aver 25"
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150125&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=41.834528837056816&mLON=-72.71068251953125&mTYP=roadmap
edit... sorry snow see you posted it too


Last edited by algae888 on Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:10 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:10 am

ABC has an annoying attitude of "we want to make it right" meaning they'll take as much time as possible to really stay with it.

Freeze says mixing In NYC Lee says not a lock..lol I think after all today's runs they'll put numbers on a board tonight
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:10 am

ARW says good morning

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 38 F45

The models are converging on a solution...

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:11 am

Watched Channel 2 - Vanessa Murdock is cute,
Channel 4 weather reports - all starting to honk the horn and come on board to what we have been stating since 2 o'clock yesterday a MAJOR WINTER STORM 15-24" area wide - still to low but they will bring that up by playing the game.

Ch 2 - 10-20" - they are out in left field

CH 4 - 10-24" - coming around

The public is going to be in for a rude awakening

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:12 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:ARW says good morning

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 38 F45

The models are converging on a solution...

I love it when a plan (or computer models) comes together.
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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:12 am

I'm in Commack (North Shore Western Suffolk County)...could we rival the 2013 event where we had 33 inches?

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:12 am

the met channel 4 today show dlyan dreyer just used the term bombogenisis(excuse spelling) and that it could produce a foot or more of snow..some places up to 30 inches they are continuing to watch models......
on another note if you have not been to grocery store yet..too late panic already started.....as I was leaving store started to get mobbed at 8 am....(only went because I was stuck in house with sick kid and husband all week)
thanks for all the great info!!
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:13 am

NWS already has me under a Blizzard Watch


http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ177&warncounty=NYC059&firewxzone=NYZ177&local_place1=Jericho NY&product1=Blizzard+Watch&lat=40.7885&lon=-73.5419

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Post by Dtone Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:15 am

WSW are already calling for 10" - 14"+. That is a significant storm that would require local govt to pull out all the preparation stops. I think they are playing it well. I wouldn't wanna throw crazy numbers like 35" unless you have extreme confidence. If they are preparing for 15" they wont be caught completely off guard if the 2ft+ totals verify. I think they will save the big Roidzilla type numbers until late tonight to tomorrow morn if trends continue.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:16 am

Blah blah blah TV Mets

Lee G. Is the only one I follow. The others, well, no.

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