Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
docstox12 wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Hey Doc you're a class act. Wish you were getting some of this!
Syo, no problem, my friend, you enjoy! I had two storms of 9 and 7 inches this year.It;s just the breaks. I may not have 6 inches right now, but I have a great buzz from wine,LOL.
and this is always the right way to look at snow storms
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Roads are getting really bad. No asphalt to be seen. Winds picking up on LI. Trains are now done on LI.
devsman- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
devsman wrote:dsvinos wrote:toople, not a weird question....I had the same question...what does it mean if H5 closes off?
Frank answered this before. If you look it up on last thread, you will see his answer. If it closes off, it becomes "It's own entity" and is not controlled by jet stream. That means it slows down and throws more snow back. It should happen after 12 but it may be too late to throw big snows back west to jersey. He explained it much better. But i feel bad he gets asked the same question every hour so i will answer it now for him. But i'm drunk. So...good luck with that.
Thanks devsman!! I'm sitting here watching the snow with a bottle of wine. I appreciate you answering my question
dsvinos- Posts : 68
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Snowing moderately to heavy now with winds up at 18 mph had a gust of 21 mph nice!!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Skins? Ace? How are you guys doing down the shore?
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
You guys didn't see it, but my forecast busted badly for us west of 95. I missed a key aspect to this forecast; one that likely explains the subsidence in this area. Hey, you live and you learn. You gotta fail to get it right. I am looking forward to the next one, and I want you all to enjoy this storm. These don't happen very often. Good night all!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
rb924119 wrote:You guys didn't see it, but my forecast busted badly for us west of 95. I missed a key aspect to this forecast; one that likely explains the subsidence in this area. Hey, you live and you learn. You gotta fail to get it right. I am looking forward to the next one, and I want you all to enjoy this storm. These don't happen very often. Good night all!!!
Goodnight man you were great
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
I really hope this band makes it onto the Jersey shore
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Im calling bust down here, got to 2.5 maybe 3" since last posted obs, dry for hours now lightly snowing, models showing at most.. 25-.5" QPF addtl mighty NAM and EURO fell should have initally listened to HRRR to start nailed last storm overall, adjusting to 4-6" expected
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is patheticJoe Snow wrote:
Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
according to 7's futurecast heaviness over the city throughout most of the am into late morning
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Joe Snow wrote:
Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Or worse....PHILLY.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
I think NYC has a good chance to get to 18"
These bands are nuts
These bands are nuts
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Forgot to add this to my other post: GREAT JOB TO EVERYBODY ON THIS BOARD!!!! These storms are not easy, and it's rare to make everybody happy. No matter what the outcome, it's great to be able to analyze things like this where people (you all) are honest, offer advice/suggestions/insight to any level of met, and best of all, to be able to (99.9% of the time) express discontent or disagreement in a respectable way. This is what the science, and the field of meteorology, is all about!! Again; absolutely FANTASTIC job to everybody for making this as enjoyable as it is
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Frank_Wx wrote:I think NYC has a good chance to get to 18"
These bands are nuts
Agree. Looking at Lee's forecast on Ch.7, Snow will hit a wall just east of hudson river but some of those bands setting up over island and NYC are gonna be nn-stop for 6-9 hours. It really looks beautiful for the rest of the night. Enjoy LI!
devsman- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
rb924119 wrote:You guys didn't see it, but my forecast busted badly for us west of 95. I missed a key aspect to this forecast; one that likely explains the subsidence in this area. Hey, you live and you learn. You gotta fail to get it right. I am looking forward to the next one, and I want you all to enjoy this storm. These don't happen very often. Good night all!!!
"History has shown again and again how nature destroys the folly of men!"
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is patheticJoe Snow wrote:
Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Same here, however I do find it funny that yesterdays Euro and todays NAM had me in a jackpot of 40 inches of snow, I have 1.4 inches so far.
I've never thought much of the NAM but thought I could trust the Euro.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
HEAVY SNOW IN BELLEROSE RIGHT NOW (Queens/Nassau county border)!!!!!
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Just Posted By the NWS
980
ACUS11 KWNS 270432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270432
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-270900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND
MASSACHUSETTS
CONCERNING...BLIZZARD
VALID 270432Z - 270900Z
SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DISCUSSION...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...EXTENDING EASTWARD
OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ARCTIC
HIGH...A LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 STATUTE MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW YORK CITY WAS RAPIDLY DEEPENING /AS EVIDENCED BY 03 UTC 2-HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 7MB AT BUOY NUMBER 44008 SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET/. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY INTENSIFY AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS /WITH GUSTS NEARING 50
KNOTS ALONG THE COAST/ WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE INCREASING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENESIS...BANDING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROADER SNOW AREA WILL
PROMOTE SNOW RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY
APPROACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR...OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING SNOW RATES WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PROLONGED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND NORTHWARD INTO
THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
..MARSH.. 01/27/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 41337383 42037347 42597232 42937087 42477023 41786981
41146995 40767095 40587176 40487261 40477338 40777390
41337383
980
ACUS11 KWNS 270432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270432
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-270900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND
MASSACHUSETTS
CONCERNING...BLIZZARD
VALID 270432Z - 270900Z
SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DISCUSSION...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...EXTENDING EASTWARD
OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ARCTIC
HIGH...A LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 STATUTE MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW YORK CITY WAS RAPIDLY DEEPENING /AS EVIDENCED BY 03 UTC 2-HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 7MB AT BUOY NUMBER 44008 SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET/. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY INTENSIFY AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS /WITH GUSTS NEARING 50
KNOTS ALONG THE COAST/ WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE INCREASING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENESIS...BANDING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROADER SNOW AREA WILL
PROMOTE SNOW RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY
APPROACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR...OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING SNOW RATES WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PROLONGED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND NORTHWARD INTO
THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
..MARSH.. 01/27/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 41337383 42037347 42597232 42937087 42477023 41786981
41146995 40767095 40587176 40487261 40477338 40777390
41337383
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Hearing H5 is about to close off?
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
Frank_Wx wrote:I think NYC has a good chance to get to 18"
These bands are nuts
I hope so, I so want TWC to be wrong.
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
I didnt think it was wise to trust the EURO when it was alone and with the NAM, had the CMC and UKIE consistantly been onboard itd be a different story.
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NjWeatherGuy wrote:Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is patheticJoe Snow wrote:
Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Same here, however I do find it funny that yesterdays Euro and todays NAM had me in a jackpot of 40 inches of snow, I have 1.4 inches so far.
I've never thought much of the NAM but thought I could trust the Euro.
I'll give the same post to you as rb concerning manmade models...."History has proven again and again how nature destroys the folly of men!"
Nam and Euro complete busts for our area CP.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NjWeatherGuy wrote:Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is patheticJoe Snow wrote:
Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Same here, however I do find it funny that yesterdays Euro and todays NAM had me in a jackpot of 40 inches of snow, I have 1.4 inches so far.
I've never thought much of the NAM but thought I could trust the Euro.
CP, Iv'e never seen anything like it. If anything, I am glad this happened. Goes to show no matter how great the EURO was you can not solely rely on it or its ensembles. But, I am happy for NYC and our LI guys. NJ (besides immediate coast) and HV will get the next one.
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
How far West is that band going to make it
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2
NjWeatherGuy wrote:I didnt think it was wise to trust the EURO when it was alone and with the NAM, had the CMC and UKIE consistantly been onboard itd be a different story.
The 12z UKIE yesterday was a big hit
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