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Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2

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Post by RJB8525 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:14 pm

docstox12 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Hey Doc you're a class act.  Wish you were getting some of this!

Syo, no problem, my friend, you enjoy! I had two storms of 9 and 7 inches this year.It;s just the breaks. I may not have 6 inches right now, but I have a great buzz from wine,LOL.

and this is always the right way to look at snow storms afro

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Post by devsman Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:17 pm

Roads are getting really bad. No asphalt to be seen. Winds picking up on LI. Trains are now done on LI.

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Post by dsvinos Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:18 pm

devsman wrote:
dsvinos wrote:toople, not a weird question....I had the same question...what does it mean if H5 closes off?

Frank answered this before. If you look it up on last thread, you will see his answer. If it closes off, it becomes "It's own entity" and is not controlled by jet stream. That means it slows down and throws more snow back. It should happen after 12 but it may be too late to throw big snows back west to jersey. He explained it much better. But i feel bad he gets asked the same question every hour so i will answer it now for him. But i'm drunk. So...good luck with that.

Thanks devsman!!  I'm sitting here watching the snow with a bottle of wine.  I appreciate you answering my question Very Happy
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:20 pm

Snowing moderately to heavy now with winds up at 18 mph had a gust of 21 mph nice!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:20 pm

Skins? Ace? How are you guys doing down the shore?

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:21 pm

You guys didn't see it, but my forecast busted badly for us west of 95. I missed a key aspect to this forecast; one that likely explains the subsidence in this area. Hey, you live and you learn. You gotta fail to get it right. I am looking forward to the next one, and I want you all to enjoy this storm. These don't happen very often. Good night all!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:23 pm

rb924119 wrote:You guys didn't see it, but my forecast busted badly for us west of 95. I missed a key aspect to this forecast; one that likely explains the subsidence in this area. Hey, you live and you learn. You gotta fail to get it right. I am looking forward to the next one, and I want you all to enjoy this storm. These don't happen very often. Good night all!!!

Goodnight man you were great

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:24 pm

I really hope this band makes it onto the Jersey shore

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:24 pm

Im calling bust down here, got to 2.5 maybe 3" since last posted obs, dry for hours now lightly snowing, models showing at most.. 25-.5" QPF addtl mighty NAM and EURO fell should have initally listened to HRRR to start nailed last storm overall, adjusting to 4-6" expected
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Post by Joe Snow Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:25 pm

Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 3 No_sno10

Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:25 pm

Joe Snow wrote:Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 3 No_sno10

Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is pathetic
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:28 pm

according to 7's futurecast heaviness over the city throughout most of the am into late morning
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:28 pm

Joe Snow wrote:Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 3 No_sno10

Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.

Or worse....PHILLY.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:28 pm

I think NYC has a good chance to get to 18"

Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 3 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map

These bands are nuts

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:29 pm

Forgot to add this to my other post: GREAT JOB TO EVERYBODY ON THIS BOARD!!!! These storms are not easy, and it's rare to make everybody happy. No matter what the outcome, it's great to be able to analyze things like this where people (you all) are honest, offer advice/suggestions/insight to any level of met, and best of all, to be able to (99.9% of the time) express discontent or disagreement in a respectable way. This is what the science, and the field of meteorology, is all about!! Again; absolutely FANTASTIC job to everybody for making this as enjoyable as it is

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Post by devsman Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I think NYC has a good chance to get to 18"

Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 3 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map

These bands are nuts

Agree. Looking at Lee's forecast on Ch.7, Snow will hit a wall just east of hudson river but some of those bands setting up over island and NYC are gonna be nn-stop for 6-9 hours. It really looks beautiful for the rest of the night. Enjoy LI!
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:31 pm

rb924119 wrote:You guys didn't see it, but my forecast busted badly for us west of 95. I missed a key aspect to this forecast; one that likely explains the subsidence in this area. Hey, you live and you learn. You gotta fail to get it right. I am looking forward to the next one, and I want you all to enjoy this storm. These don't happen very often. Good night all!!!

"History has shown again and again how nature destroys the folly of men!"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:32 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 3 No_sno10

Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is pathetic

Same here, however I do find it funny that yesterdays Euro and todays NAM had me in a jackpot of 40 inches of snow, I have 1.4 inches so far.

I've never thought much of the NAM but thought I could trust the Euro.
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Post by Math23x7 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:32 pm

HEAVY SNOW IN BELLEROSE RIGHT NOW (Queens/Nassau county border)!!!!!

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Post by Joe Snow Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:34 pm

Just Posted By the NWS



980
ACUS11 KWNS 270432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270432
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-270900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND
MASSACHUSETTS

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 270432Z - 270900Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...EXTENDING EASTWARD
OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ARCTIC
HIGH...A LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 STATUTE MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW YORK CITY WAS RAPIDLY DEEPENING /AS EVIDENCED BY 03 UTC 2-HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 7MB AT BUOY NUMBER 44008 SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET/. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY INTENSIFY AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS /WITH GUSTS NEARING 50
KNOTS ALONG THE COAST/ WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE INCREASING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENESIS...BANDING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROADER SNOW AREA WILL
PROMOTE SNOW RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY
APPROACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR...OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING SNOW RATES WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
PROLONGED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND NORTHWARD INTO
THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

..MARSH.. 01/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 41337383 42037347 42597232 42937087 42477023 41786981
41146995 40767095 40587176 40487261 40477338 40777390
41337383
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Post by snow247 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:34 pm

Hearing H5 is about to close off?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I think NYC has a good chance to get to 18"

Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 3 WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map

These bands are nuts

I hope so, I so want TWC to be wrong.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:35 pm

I didnt think it was wise to trust the EURO when it was alone and with the NAM, had the CMC and UKIE consistantly been onboard itd be a different story.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:35 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 3 No_sno10

Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is pathetic

Same here, however I do find it funny that yesterdays Euro and todays NAM had me in a jackpot of 40 inches of snow, I have 1.4 inches so far.

I've never thought much of the NAM but thought I could trust the Euro.

I'll give the same post to you as rb concerning manmade models...."History has proven again and again how nature destroys the folly of men!"

Nam and Euro complete busts for our area CP.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:36 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 3 No_sno10

Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is pathetic

Same here, however I do find it funny that yesterdays Euro and todays NAM had me in a jackpot of 40 inches of snow, I have 1.4 inches so far.

I've never thought much of the NAM but thought I could trust the Euro.

CP, Iv'e never seen anything like it. If anything, I am glad this happened. Goes to show no matter how great the EURO was you can not solely rely on it or its ensembles. But, I am happy for NYC and our LI guys. NJ (besides immediate coast) and HV will get the next one.

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Post by Vinnydula Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:36 pm

How far West is that band going to make it
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:36 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I didnt think it was wise to trust the EURO when it was alone and with the NAM, had the CMC and UKIE consistantly been onboard itd be a different story.

The 12z UKIE yesterday was a big hit

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