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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:02 am

Hello members of NJ Strong Wx,

If you are waking up and wondering where the snow is, well it's about 100-150 miles north and east of your area. Plain and simple: I blew it. NWS blew it. Many other outlets blew it. The storm will be known for one thing and that is being one of the bigger busts in NYC/NJ history. That said, parts of Long Island are well above 1 foot. Some near 2 feet. There's still snow falling over parts of NYC and that could tack on another inch or two. They'll fall shy of the 1 foot I predicted, well shy of what NWS predicted, and that is just unacceptable in one of the most populated cities of our country.

All week long whether it was from myself or your local TV Mets, you probably heard us say that snow accumulations will be dependent on whether or not the system takes a western track or an eastern one. The EURO model, the most superior of them all, suggested the west track. The GFS model, usually inconsistent and late to catch on, was determined to keep the track east. In most storms, models come into agreement 12-24 hours before it's scheduled to hit...except this one. Both those models did not come into agreement at ANY time. This required forecasters such as myself to make a decision. As you can imagine, we made a conscience decision to side with the EURO model. In fact, at one point the GEFS (part of the GFS package) agreed with the EURO model which swayed my decision even more toward the EURO being right. However, I am not using poor model performance as an excuse. There is something that clearly went wrong and I'll be sure to dig deep and look for the root causes of what prevented this storm to take a track closer to the coast and bring those blizzard conditions to the area.

My underlining goal is always to bring you guys the most accurate weather possible. My mentality is to keep you ahead of the game - know about these possible storms before any TV Met mentions it - so you can make an action plan well ahead of schedule. Obviously weather changes by the day so I will not be able to say ahead of time whether these storm possibilities or potentials will come to fruition, but the least I can do is raise awareness. I posted daily updates, wrote up detailed blogs containing analysis, and did my best to bring the latest reports of what weather models were showing.

I am very thankful for some of the other knowledgeable posters on here as well who worked their butts off to try and forecast this storm. A round of applause for them. The teamwork and dedication does not go unnoticed. If your forecast busted and you're trying to think of ways to defend yourself next time you see your colleagues, let them know just a small track deviation of 50 miles makes all the difference between 1-2 feet and 6-12 inches of snow. It's much better to be prepared than not.

Those of you who were at the get together earlier this month will know how excited I was for this time period. The pattern has clearly changed and you can expect us to be in a below normal temperature regime with additional storm threats for the foreseeable future. The next big storm possibility will be on Monday, February 2nd but it's unknown at this time whether it's rain or snow. Sometimes it's best to look ahead instead of dwelling over the negatives. Lets focus our efforts on the weather that's to come. If you feel like this is no longer a trustworthy source for weather, or you're just upset with the overall performance, I understand and no hard feeling toward you. But I am ready to move on and track the next one.

Best,

Francesco





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Post by tigernumba1 Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:12 am

Frank you did a fantastic job and forecasted based on very good reasoning. Im in eastern suffolk with nearly two feet of snow like you predicted. The storm just had an unbelievable cutoff just west of suffolk county that is impossible to predict, especially when models never come in to agreement with each other. Keep up the good work and I want to let you know that you are one of the reasons I am pursuing a career in meteorology.

Thanks for all you do, along with many other knowledgeable members of this forum!
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Post by mako460 Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:18 am

No worries Frank, we will always be on your side! Still closing in on close to a foot here and who can ever complain about that. Great job as always, even if some are a bit dissappointed.

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Post by jimv45 Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:20 am

I was pissed earlier but now that is gone!! the last 2 weeks have been rough the ice storm and now this but frank you and others do an outstanding job and I trust this site more then the tv people. I come to this site because in my business i need to know the weather as soon as possible but its the weather and anything can happen I will be back and keep up the good work!

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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:21 am

Frank as this is a weather forum populated by weather enthusiasts I think most people on here know just how difficult these storms can be to nail down and just how much a minor shift in track or other atmospheric quirks can impact on amounts. I think everyone involved in the forecasting of this event did the best they could with the info they had. It doesn't always pan out, but it's not for lack of effort. The great thing about a forum like this, and why I joined, is it gives everyone an opportunity to track these things together, bounce ideas off each other, compare notes and when a storm hits to enjoy it together and, sometimes, when it misses to suffer together. There will be other storms, and we'll all enjoy tracking them together and then watching them unfold. Thank you for your passion and dedication and providing this forum for guys like me who enjoy the discussion of the storms as much as the outcome.
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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:23 am

Really enjoyed your weather playby play, as usual keep calling it the way you see it we wouldn't want it any other way!
Again Many Thanks!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:23 am

@tigernumba1 wrote:Frank you did a fantastic job and forecasted based on very good reasoning.  Im in eastern suffolk with nearly two feet of snow like you predicted.  The storm just had an unbelievable cutoff just west of suffolk county that is impossible to predict, especially when models never come in to agreement with each other.  Keep up the good work and I want to let you know that you are one of the reasons I am pursuing a career in meteorology.

Thanks for all you do, along with many other knowledgeable members of this forum!

That great to hear and makes me very happy. I admire the younger posters who pursue Meteorology. I wish you all the best and success.

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Post by mako460 Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:24 am

Very well said Bill!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:25 am

Frank head up you and others did a great job tracking this one. Also the knowledge I learned from this priceless . That's how the weather goes you never know thanks for all the time and hard work.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:33 am

I do not want not Frank to take all the heat. Frank is def our leader on this board, but I would also like to take responsibility for this as well, and personally apologize for getting it wrong in many areas. Frank and I and others who put in just as much time and effort know we don't have to apologize but I personally feel like I should. Weather will always remain a humbling field.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:36 am

This bust rivals the 3/05/01 non-event. You can argue that 2001 was worse, cause all the models agreed on a historic event only to back off 36 hours prior. With this event only the EURO and NAM was gungho with this event, while the GFS and Canadian were not. Even though there was a shred of doubt in my mind, I was very confident like the most of us for a historic event. This bust will have lingering effects I'm afraid. Not only for the lack of snow we received, but for future storm events to come because when we track the next potential snow event, the EURO's accuracy will now come into question. This is not the first blown forecast, and certainly won't be the last, but this one is going to sting for a long time.
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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:39 am

@sroc4 wrote:I do not want not Frank to take all the heat.  Frank is def our leader on this board, but I would also like to take responsibility for this as well, and personally apologize for getting it wrong in many areas. Frank and I and others who put in just as much time and effort know we don't have to apologize but I personally feel like I should.   Weather will always remain a humbling field.

ditto what I said to Frank. You guys did the best you could with the info you had. In the many years I've followed these storms they are always an extreme challenge. And even as someone who has followed weather for years, I learn so much from you guys. I suspect, if we ever got to the point where the weather never threw us a curveball and we always were sure we knew what was coming -- a lot of us might find it a little less fascinating. Glad to be in this forum and can't wait to track the next storm with you. Bring it on!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:42 am

@billg315 wrote:Frank as this is a weather forum populated by weather enthusiasts I think most people on here know just how difficult these storms can be to nail down and just how much a minor shift in track or other atmospheric quirks can impact on amounts. I think everyone involved in the forecasting of this event did the best they could with the info they had. It doesn't always pan out, but it's not for lack of effort. The great thing about a forum like this, and why I joined, is it gives everyone an opportunity to track these things together, bounce ideas off each other, compare notes and when a storm hits to enjoy it together and, sometimes, when it misses to suffer together. There will be other storms, and we'll all enjoy tracking them together and then watching them unfold. Thank you for your passion and dedication and providing this forum for guys like me who enjoy the discussion of the storms as much as the outcome.

Love this post, thanks Bill! Also appreciative of the support from other posters.

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Post by JDKWeather Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:45 am

I'm in Little Neck and have 11" with 18" drifts.  
I truly love reading this board and love the forecasts.

Did most of the models have it wrong? Yes but remember

the broken bone is the strongest in the body.  

Thank you all for enjoyable reading and learning experience!

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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:57 am

Frank, Doc, Ryan and others who contribute.We all have your backs, men, and will follow you guys anywhere the forecast leads no matter what the outcome.If interpreting models were easy, I could walk into any tv station right now and get a job.Very difficult.West areas would have done much better, at least a foot, if that inverted trough didn't occur and nobody saw that big fat curveball coming down into the plate.

On to the next storm, guys.

KCACO!!!!!!!
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Post by bas1gun Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:58 am

First time posting.

Just want to say good job covering this storm and I'm not even in your primary area of coverage. I come here to get some insight on what's going on and what could possibly happen with a storm.

I feel that a blown prediction does not warrant a lose of trust. I'm old enough to understand weather is unpredictable plain and simple.

That's just my $0.02. Keep up the good work.

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Post by bloc1357 Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:59 am

Great job Frank and all the other hard working forecasters on this site. All in all not everyone did bad. I'm in western suffolk on long island, I got between 20-24". Super hard to be accurate with all the drifts. Great job and look forward to the next one!!!

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Post by Grselig Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:06 am

Frank and all. We are all crushed cause we love snow. It sucks cause hopes were historic. Weather is, in some ways, like sports, and sometimes last second curves happen which are heartbraking. Keep your head up. All who know how great this site is will be back after we lick our wounds. With this we may gain some knowledge. This site and the info provided is wonderful and valuable. I would rather have this result than 40 inches with high winds and FATALITIES. There is always tomorrow and if not, then next winter. Thanks to you and all the moderators and people who post!
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:16 am

This is the best weather blog in the entire Galaxy & p.s., the only one I know of that didn't shut down on Sat/Sun. I'm sticking around! ;-)

Oh, and Frank, you're a talented young man beyond your years. No apology needed.
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Post by devsman Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:37 am

If the Nam didn't show what it showed, I;m pretty sure your forecast would have been more in line with what happened. And no one can predict inverted troughs. This is where i get my weather reports.
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:53 am

i say forget it. Mother nature is fickle ANYTHING can happen computers are not perfect. you can only go by what they say if all models crap the bed you are left with a spinning head. (ha) You did a fantasic job and i love this forum i think NYC still did good did we get destroyed no did i want that no so i lucked out IMO.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:54 am

I'm sorry you were scared Mikey by what you read. This is however a forum where people can discuss the weather. Those posts were simply stating what the models were producing as a forecast. If that would have come true it would have been very scary. There are plenty of other outlets for you to get your weather from. This one does not sound like it's the right one for you. Best of luck.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:54 am

Great job Frank.  You're still the most accurate guy I know!  You don't get paid to do this so don't take s--t!  Send it my way and I'll deal with it for you!

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Post by Guest Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:55 am

@sroc4 wrote:I'm sorry you were scared Mikey by what you read. This is however a forum where people can discuss the weather. Those posts were simply stating what the models were producing as a forecast. If that would have come true it would have been very scary. There are plenty of other outlets for you to get your weather from. This one does not sound like it's the right one for you. Best of luck.

You said it nicer than I did sroc4!

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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:57 am

I know. I deleted your post. I feel you but we aren't going to start a war. What was said was ok for the forum.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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