Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
12z models update for NYC
1/25 12z Summary
NYC area : QPF (Snow)
SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 (>16")
NAM: 1.50 - 1.75 (>18")
GFS: 0.80 - 1.00 (>10")
RGEM: 1.00 (>12")
GGEM: 0.75 - 0.95 (>10")
UKMET: 1.25 - 1.50 (>20")
GEFS: 1.25 - 1.50 (>20")
1/25 12z Summary
NYC area : QPF (Snow)
SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 (>16")
NAM: 1.50 - 1.75 (>18")
GFS: 0.80 - 1.00 (>10")
RGEM: 1.00 (>12")
GGEM: 0.75 - 0.95 (>10")
UKMET: 1.25 - 1.50 (>20")
GEFS: 1.25 - 1.50 (>20")
Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
SoulSingMG wrote:And bam, WPC dismisses that GFS due to convective feedback.
They dismissed the entire storm yesterday.
Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
Well, cagy NWS must be watching these models with their little curves and twists because they have my area getting between 10 and 19 inches.How's that for narrowing things down 24 hours before the start,LOL!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
Frank_Wx wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:And bam, WPC dismisses that GFS due to convective feedback.
They dismissed the entire storm yesterday.
That will come back to haunt them, I am sure.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
I think people need to relax i feel big one for most the models are just doing what they do tonight we will see the snow weenie deluxe lets not get crazy on run to runs!
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
thanks! sorry I was inpatient, hanging around my son 24/7 for the last week has me picking up habits of 10 year old!!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
These kind of storm situations turn all snow lovers into 10 year olds, and I'm 64,LOL!!!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
Frank_Wx wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:And bam, WPC dismisses that GFS due to convective feedback.
They dismissed the entire storm yesterday.
YEA, but we are weather freaks. We only go by what suits us best in the moment! ;-)
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
LMAO i cant..people on twitter are going nuts..
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
Guess where Mike Seidel is??? Lol
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
SoulSingMG wrote:Guess where Mike Seidel is??? Lol
I kid you not, he's been in Boston already for 2 days.
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
I have a question.
What do you think the storm surge on the south shore on LI might be? My hubbys boat is up on a rack close to the bay and he is wondering if he might have an issue.
So I would appreciate input from anyone.
What do you think the storm surge on the south shore on LI might be? My hubbys boat is up on a rack close to the bay and he is wondering if he might have an issue.
So I would appreciate input from anyone.
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
RJB8525 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:Guess where Mike Seidel is??? Lol
I kid you not, he's been in Boston already for 2 days.
Well, there's two things you can take to the bank in major snowstorms.
1) The Zookeeper in Central Park will undermeasure.
2) TWC will be in Boston
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
Great blog Frank, love the song! RJ I'm staying off twitter for now, just keeping it here and my FB....I don't know how folks can have such mood swings and highs and lows with every model run! Man this thing is coming, if you get a foot or 18" is it really going to make that much difference in your life? You are going to have to shovel and be inconvenienced, but this is the NE not the middle of nowhere in North Dakota where you can be stranded for a week! Ok, done venting for now ;-)
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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
Dunnzoo wrote:Great blog Frank, love the song! RJ I'm staying off twitter for now, just keeping it here and my FB....I don't know how folks can have such mood swings and highs and lows with every model run! Man this thing is coming, if you get a foot or 18" is it really going to make that much difference in your life? You are going to have to shovel and be inconvenienced, but this is the NE not the middle of nowhere in North Dakota where you can be stranded for a week! Ok, done venting for now ;-)
I know, its still a foot of snow or over. I don't think NYC wants anything over 18+ IMO De Blasio will have this place in a stand still
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
What people fail to understand is certain models will show noise. Only the great ones will be consistent. Euro at 12z awaits...
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
Janet I get it But deep down we all want to see something historic
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
euro comes at what time? I always forget
devsman- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
oldtimer wrote:Janet I get it But deep down we all want to see something historic
For sure, lucky for us older folks we have a few epic storms under our belt!
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
With models showing a storm impact this powerful I think it was inevitable that some of them might start to back off a bit from the extreme solution as we get closer to the event. But as has been pointed out, if "backing off" leaves most of us with 12", and a few of us with more than that, it is still a major storm.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
No I'm spoiled I want 20 or better
carvin1079- Posts : 61
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
The EURO model comes out in 5 minutes. It will be very telling to see what it shows.
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
I'm screwed here in NE PA I know it lmfao
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO model comes out in 5 minutes. It will be very telling to see what it shows.
I'm excited yet nervous about the Euro. anxious times lol
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
Don't be nervous embrace it
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Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)
Frank At this point 2 ticks E and somewhat weaker because of the sampling
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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