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Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

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Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 5 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:02 pm

12z models update for NYC

1/25 12z Summary
NYC area : QPF (Snow)


SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 (>16")
NAM: 1.50 - 1.75 (>18")
GFS: 0.80 - 1.00 (>10")
RGEM: 1.00 (>12")
GGEM: 0.75 - 0.95 (>10")
UKMET: 1.25 - 1.50 (>20")
GEFS: 1.25 - 1.50 (>20")

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:03 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:And bam, WPC dismisses that GFS due to convective feedback.

They dismissed the entire storm yesterday. Evil or Very Mad Tired Mad

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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:04 pm

Well, cagy NWS must be watching these models with their little curves and twists because they have my area getting between 10 and 19 inches.How's that for narrowing things down 24 hours before the start,LOL!
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:And bam, WPC dismisses that GFS due to convective feedback.

They dismissed the entire storm yesterday. Evil or Very Mad Tired Mad

That will come back to haunt them, I am sure.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:05 pm

I think people need to relax i feel big one for most the models are just doing what they do tonight we will see the snow weenie deluxe lets not get crazy on run to runs!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:06 pm

thanks! sorry I was inpatient, hanging around my son 24/7 for the last week has me picking up habits of 10 year old!! Wink
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:07 pm

These kind of storm situations turn all snow lovers into 10 year olds, and I'm 64,LOL!!!
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:And bam, WPC dismisses that GFS due to convective feedback.

They dismissed the entire storm yesterday. Evil or Very Mad Tired Mad

YEA, but we are weather freaks. We only go by what suits us best in the moment! ;-)
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:10 pm

LMAO i cant..people on twitter are going nuts..
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:13 pm

Guess where Mike Seidel is??? Lol
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:14 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Guess where Mike Seidel is??? Lol

I kid you not, he's been in Boston already for 2 days.
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Post by jtswife Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:15 pm

I have a question.
What do you think the storm surge on the south shore on LI might be? My hubbys boat is up on a rack close to the bay and he is wondering if he might have an issue.
So I would appreciate input from anyone.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:18 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Guess where Mike Seidel is??? Lol

I kid you not, he's been in Boston already for 2 days.

Well, there's two things you can take to the bank in major snowstorms.

1) The Zookeeper in Central Park will undermeasure.

2) TWC will be in Boston
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:19 pm

Great blog Frank, love the song! RJ I'm staying off twitter for now, just keeping it here and my FB....I don't know how folks can have such mood swings and highs and lows with every model run! Man this thing is coming, if you get a foot or 18" is it really going to make that much difference in your life? You are going to have to shovel and be inconvenienced, but this is the NE not the middle of nowhere in North Dakota where you can be stranded for a week! Ok, done venting for now ;-)

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:21 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Great blog Frank, love the song! RJ I'm staying off twitter for now, just keeping it here and my FB....I don't know how folks can have such mood swings and highs and lows with every model run! Man this thing is coming, if you get a foot or 18" is it really going to make that much difference in your life? You are going to have to shovel and be inconvenienced, but this is the NE not the middle of nowhere in North Dakota where you can be stranded for a week! Ok, done venting for now  ;-)

I know, its still a foot of snow or over. I don't think NYC wants anything over 18+ IMO De Blasio will have this place in a stand still
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:24 pm

What people fail to understand is certain models will show noise. Only the great ones will be consistent. Euro at 12z awaits...

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Post by oldtimer Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:25 pm

Janet I get it But deep down we all want to see something historic

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Post by devsman Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:26 pm

euro comes at what time? I always forget
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:26 pm

oldtimer wrote:Janet    I get it  But deep down we all want to see something historic

For sure, lucky for us older folks we have a few epic storms under our belt!

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:33 pm

With models showing a storm impact this powerful I think it was inevitable that some of them might start to back off a bit from the extreme solution as we get closer to the event. But as has been pointed out, if "backing off" leaves most of us with 12", and a few of us with more than that, it is still a major storm.
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Post by carvin1079 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:38 pm

No I'm spoiled I want 20 or better

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:43 pm

The EURO model comes out in 5 minutes. It will be very telling to see what it shows.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:44 pm

I'm screwed here in NE PA I know it lmfao

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO model comes out in 5 minutes. It will be very telling to see what it shows.

I'm excited yet nervous about the Euro. anxious times lol
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:47 pm

Don't be nervous embrace it
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Post by oldtimer Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:47 pm

Frank At this point 2 ticks E and somewhat weaker because of the sampling

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:50 pm

Here we go

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