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Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:38 am

and that may be underdone without ratios. look at qpf
Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 2 StormTotalQPFFcst
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:39 am

Secondary wave also looks like it is steepening eastern side of ridge more.....good sign.

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Post by devsman Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:40 am

@Artechmetals wrote:Does anyone who is a teacher on here know when blizzard warnings go up if schools usually cancel ?

Depends where you teach. Long island will start cancellations tomorrow night. NYC...ha...well, we may have to wait for 7am. One year, I woke up, saw 12 inches on the ground. But school was still on so i went to shower, got dressed, and around 6:45, they cancelled school. I think Bill Evans said, "what the hell took so long!"
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:40 am

@mancave25 wrote:Nwest jersey gets screwed again
I know you must be joking as nw nj always out performs the coast. this is their 1 out of every 25 storms to cash in on
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:40 am

Looks to me like GFS starting to phase a little earlier here through hour 30

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:40 am

@algae888 wrote:and that may be underdone without ratios. look at qpf
Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 2 StormTotalQPFFcst

very impressive, you looking at +30 inches in some spots factoring in the ratios if those qpf's hold.
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Post by Vinnydula Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:41 am

What are the ratios going to be with this storm
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Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:43 am

Can't believe new 12 still 6 to 12
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Post by mancave25 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:43 am

I don't know about that we never make out up here with coastal storms it seems like the heavy snow is always on the coast the last couple of years

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Post by snowday111 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:44 am

@Artechmetals wrote:Does anyone who is a teacher on here know when blizzard warnings go up if schools usually cancel ?

I think we will know that there's no school on Tuesday VERY early on. I'm more worried about tomorrow. I think they may try to get the day in maybe with an early dismissal.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:44 am

NVM. Actually holds off on closing H5...

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:45 am

@rb924119 wrote:NVM. Actually holds off on closing H5...

That's a little disturbing.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:45 am

@mancave25 wrote:I don't know about that we never make out up here with coastal storms it seems like the heavy snow is always on the coast the last couple of years

At least you get something out of them.Up where I go trout fishing in Roscoe NY, the foot of the Catskills which should be major snow territory, have busted out over and over with these coastals in the last five years.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:45 am

GFS did not close off H5. Was very late with the phase. LI and NYC still do well, especially LI. But western areas get kind of screwed

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:46 am

@mancave25 wrote:I don't know about that we never make out up here with coastal storms it seems like the heavy snow is always on the coast the last couple of years
yes I agree but just the last couple of years. prior to that how many storms does the coast get mix or rain and you a foot of snow.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:47 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS did not close off H5. Was very late with the phase. LI and NYC still do well, especially LI. But western areas get kind of screwed

Ruh, roh!!!!!!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:47 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS did not close off H5. Was very late with the phase. LI and NYC still do well, especially LI. But western areas get kind of screwed

Not good, how concerned are you?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:48 am

The GFS is not good with these type of systems. It had a very bad handle with Nemo as well. The possibility exists that it could be right, but with a western ridge like that I would expect a cleaner phase

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:48 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS did not close off H5. Was very late with the phase. LI and NYC still do well, especially LI. But western areas get kind of screwed


A hic up?
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Post by mancave25 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:49 am

That's not good cancel the blizzard watch lol

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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:49 am

If that happens, CP, we'll be lucky to get 8 while LI gets bombed again.

NEMO-II
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:49 am

Yeah, it was like 12 hours later with the closing off. It looked like the energy was streaming down the backside sooner, though, to me. Idk

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Post by mancave25 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:49 am

Nws just jinxed us

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:50 am

It's actually still a Godzilla due to the long duration of the banding. It's just not as extreme as the EURO/CMC and their ensembles

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 2 Post-910-0-51731900-1422200752

This has to be watched because the northern stream energy is now under full sampling. I still think a Godzilla is coming (always thought that was the floor) but the big 24+ amounts I am not yet convinced.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:51 am

@docstox12 wrote:If that happens, CP, we'll be lucky to get 8 while LI gets bombed again.

NEMO-II

I've always considered the possibility with this one Doc. The only model that ever seem to have our area near the bull's-eye for this is the euro.

Hope this doesn't begin a tick eastward trend. But at least we have 8 inches of snow on the ground I keep forgetting that.
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