NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

+64
chief7
Dis2cruise
gigs68
nutleyblizzard
Yschiff
chrism
Aiosamoney21
bloc1357
shawnerak
Puff the magic dragon
tigernumba1
LB3147
BARBIEFLY
vmallh6
dsvinos
toople
static2987
Scullybutcher
dsix85
marin1804
NjWeatherGuy
HectorO
meeka312
mako460
emokid51783
WeatherBob
Sunflowers138
sroc4
deadrabbit79
lisalamb
2004blackwrx
Abba701
sabamfa
WOLVES1
crippo84
carvin1079
oldtimer
Dunnzoo
jtswife
weatherwatchermom
jimv45
snow247
SNOW MAN
skinsfan1177
amugs
Math23x7
aiannone
RJB8525
Joe Snow
docstox12
snowday111
Vinnydula
devsman
mancave25
Quietace
Artechmetals
SoulSingMG
jmanley32
Dtone
rb924119
billg315
CPcantmeasuresnow
algae888
Frank_Wx
68 posters

Page 3 of 39 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 21 ... 39  Next

Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:51 am

is this deflategate 2.0? positive thoughts positive thoughts
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by aiannone Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:52 am

I better get at least 8-12" up at LSC. I can't believe i'm missing this.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4257
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:53 am

Yes, CP, it's a beautiful winter morning, crystal clear, blowing snow and fresh deer tracks in our back yard.Hey, Frank still says we'll do OK with this latest news.So we get 12 instead of 18.No problemo.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7243
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:54 am

The problem with the GFS that run was it opened H5 at a not-so ideal time. It helps the southern vort scoot a little further east which results in a late/partial phase with the northern stream energy. Foreign models have a favorable phase which helps hook the surface low back to the coast. This scenario is still fine for NYC, but area west especially out into PA will not benefit. Is it a possibility? Sure. But the consistency of the EURO and its ensembles make me doubt it.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:54 am

@docstox12 wrote:If that happens, CP, we'll be lucky to get 8 while LI gets bombed again.

NEMO-II

Hey doc, the GFS snow map from the 12 Z that Frank just posted, still puts us in the 12 to 18 inch range. I'm not a greedy man I'd sign for that right now.

There's nothing like a 30 incher but things have to go perfect for that.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:00 am

Hour hour 33 of the 6z GFS there was already phasing taking place and the main southern s/w energy in the trough was better consolidated to the center of the trough. On the 12z GFS, there is still no interaction and the southern s/w energy is already off the coast of GA. Heights are actually a tad higher on the 12z GFS. It's just a matter of timing with both streams of energy. It's vital that it happens at a certain latitude to benefit everyone and not just a select few. We'll see how the rest of 12z suite's shake out.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:01 am

Yep, that is a great snowstorm CP,and,like you, I've got my pen ready to sign up and lock it!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7243
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:09 am

WPIX 11's Joe Choiffey (sp)? took a crap on the GFS last night saying he cant rely on it with these types of storms he was going with the Euro so we'll see what happens
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:12 am

All I can say is RGEM baby!!!

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:12 am

That's what I'm thinking but wonder if a blizzard warning will let them call school
Artechmetals
Artechmetals
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 547
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 54
Location : Livingston , NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:15 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The problem with the GFS that run was it opened H5 at a not-so ideal time. It helps the southern vort scoot a little further east which results in a late/partial phase with the northern stream energy. Foreign models have a favorable phase which helps hook the surface low back to the coast. This scenario is still fine for NYC, but area west especially out into PA will not benefit. Is it a possibility? Sure. But the consistency of the EURO and its ensembles make me doubt it.

Just read to toss the GFS, as upper levels still match euro and that the surface is off..
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by amugs Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:18 am

@aiannone wrote:I better get at least 8-12" up at LSC. I can't believe i'm missing this.

You will be living this through us kid - NJ Strong Weather famil Very Happy Laughing

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12199
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:21 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The problem with the GFS that run was it opened H5 at a not-so ideal time. It helps the southern vort scoot a little further east which results in a late/partial phase with the northern stream energy. Foreign models have a favorable phase which helps hook the surface low back to the coast. This scenario is still fine for NYC, but area west especially out into PA will not benefit. Is it a possibility? Sure. But the consistency of the EURO and its ensembles make me doubt it.

Just read to toss the GFS, as upper levels still match euro and that the surface is off..

Not true. Upper levels do not match.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:23 am

Ooofaaaa... L.I

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 StormTotalQPFFcst
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:23 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The problem with the GFS that run was it opened H5 at a not-so ideal time. It helps the southern vort scoot a little further east which results in a late/partial phase with the northern stream energy. Foreign models have a favorable phase which helps hook the surface low back to the coast. This scenario is still fine for NYC, but area west especially out into PA will not benefit. Is it a possibility? Sure. But the consistency of the EURO and its ensembles make me doubt it.

Just read to toss the GFS, as upper levels still match euro and that the surface is off..

Not true. Upper levels do not match.

But the low closed off same place, over Delaware, no? Wouldn't the surface low be more west with that upper level setup?
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by amugs Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:30 am

Relax on the GFS peeps - if the euro and rgem come n as such then we see a slight change. Do not see it really happening

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12199
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:31 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The problem with the GFS that run was it opened H5 at a not-so ideal time. It helps the southern vort scoot a little further east which results in a late/partial phase with the northern stream energy. Foreign models have a favorable phase which helps hook the surface low back to the coast. This scenario is still fine for NYC, but area west especially out into PA will not benefit. Is it a possibility? Sure. But the consistency of the EURO and its ensembles make me doubt it.

Just read to toss the GFS, as upper levels still match euro and that the surface is off..

Not true. Upper levels do not match.

But the low closed off same place, over Delaware, no? Wouldn't the surface low be more west with that upper level setup?

Not if it opens back up, like the GFS just showed. It needs to remain closed.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:33 am

Could it be it glitched with surface reflection?
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:34 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The problem with the GFS that run was it opened H5 at a not-so ideal time. It helps the southern vort scoot a little further east which results in a late/partial phase with the northern stream energy. Foreign models have a favorable phase which helps hook the surface low back to the coast. This scenario is still fine for NYC, but area west especially out into PA will not benefit. Is it a possibility? Sure. But the consistency of the EURO and its ensembles make me doubt it.

Just read to toss the GFS, as upper levels still match euro and that the surface is off..

Not true. Upper levels do not match.

But the low closed off same place, over Delaware, no? Wouldn't the surface low be more west with that upper level setup?

Not if it opens back up, like the GFS just showed. It needs to remain closed.

YOU ARE SCARING ME!!! Lol
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:37 am

The 12z GGEM shifted east with the heavier precip. Now that the northern stream energy is getting sampling, we're seeing different solutions.

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Post-34-0-05251100-1422203429

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:38 am

Long Island and SNE remain in Roidzilla territory. But now the concern is where the cut-off lies? NYC? Just west? Very trick scenario enveloping

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:41 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z GGEM shifted east with the heavier precip. Now that the northern stream energy is getting sampling, we're seeing different solutions.

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Post-34-0-05251100-1422203429

Looks like NYC,LI and NE get this one good.West drying up.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7243
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:42 am

Yeah, it's looking like if you're west of NYC you really have to start getting concerned. >_<

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:44 am

Had a feeling last night based on years of looking at this that major bombing would occur N and E and that NE would be the major winner.

Now, hopefully I can scratch out an 8 to 12 storm in the HV with positive ratios.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7243
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:44 am

Please follow the link to my latest blog. I understand the latest runs of the GFS/GGEM are concerning to some people (mainly NYC and NJ people) because the heavier precip is now confined to just LI, but you have to keep in mind this is still going to bring at least a 12-inch snowfall to pretty much everyone. It is still a big deal. Determining how extreme this storm will get is where the forecast gets tricky.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/01/blizzard-of-2015-impacts-timing.html


1st Call snow map at 3pm and you'll see my thoughts

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20010
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 3 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 39 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 21 ... 39  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum