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Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

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Post by Quietace Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:56 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Should i come home guys? Can i make it back thursday?
alex you should def come home. you can always make up the work. you may never see a storm like this the rest of your life
I emailed my meteorology professor and he sort of said yes. Calc Teacher said no though.
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:56 pm

tele conn for this storm. a nao and ao that is positive and rising. a +pna heading towards neutral and mjo in cod on phase 7-8 side. amazing this is happening with such poor tele conn.


Last edited by algae888 on Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:57 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:56 pm

@mancave25 wrote:Could anyone tell me if that water vapor image looks like the euro or the gfs at this time frame

Frank posted earlier...WV is lining up nicely with Euro

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:57 pm

School closing here already for Tuesday and half days tomorrow in some districts.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:57 pm

Wow!

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-urges-commuters-stay-home-if-possible-monday
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:58 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Should i come home guys? Can i make it back thursday?
alex you should def come home. you can always make up the work. you may never see a storm like this the rest of your life
I emailed my meteorology professor and he sort of said yes. Calc Teacher said no though.

Start coughing. Screw calculus. Pretend your dying and get the hell outta there now kid.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:58 pm

@algae888 wrote:tele conn for this storm. a nao and ao that is positive and rising. a +pna heading towards neutral and mjo in cod on phase 7-8 side. amazing this is happening with such poor tele conn.

I remember Frank saying the mjo helped
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:59 pm

Al where is steve D located?
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:00 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:School closing here already for Tuesday and half days tomorrow in some districts.

My schools on LI are already letting out 2 1/2 hours early. No school Tuesday and Wed. for sure.

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:01 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Should i come home guys? Can i make it back thursday?
alex you should def come home. you can always make up the work. you may never see a storm like this the rest of your life
I emailed my meteorology professor and he sort of said yes. Calc Teacher said no though.

Start coughing.  Screw calculus.  Pretend your dying and get the hell outta there now kid.
ALEX take into account that you may not make it back up there until monday
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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:03 pm

@aiannone- Dude, I was in the same position you were last year when I was in Albany and the big February storm was coming. I checked the models and skipped out........even though I didn't get to see thundersnow, it was still one of the best decisions of my life. I witnessed the heaviest snowfall rates I have ever seen and it was absolutely incredible. PLEASE don't deny yourself the enjoyment of witnessing something of this magnitude. If you do, you will end up regretting it for the rest of your life. These things don't come around too often. Just speaking from experience, my friend.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:04 pm

That's GOTTA be closed off at H5......I can't see how it's not. SO DEFINED

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:05 pm

@rb924119 wrote:@aiannone- Dude, I was in the same position you were last year when I was in Albany and the big February storm was coming. I checked the models and skipped out........even though I didn't get to see thundersnow, it was still one of the best decisions of my life. I witnessed the heaviest snowfall rates I have ever seen and it was absolutely incredible. PLEASE don't deny yourself the enjoyment of witnessing something of this magnitude. If you do, you will end up regretting it for the rest of your life. These things don't come around too often. Just speaking from experience, my friend.

Keep in mind this youngster has already experienced Nemo where we had rates of 3-5" an hr on the NS of LI.  It was epic.  Alex you can say you've experienced twice!!!!!

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Post by mancave25 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:07 pm

Mean while our bone head leaded gov. Christie still hasn't spoke about the storm . he must be to busy running for president and for got he's still governor

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:08 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:@aiannone- Dude, I was in the same position you were last year when I was in Albany and the big February storm was coming. I checked the models and skipped out........even though I didn't get to see thundersnow, it was still one of the best decisions of my life. I witnessed the heaviest snowfall rates I have ever seen and it was absolutely incredible. PLEASE don't deny yourself the enjoyment of witnessing something of this magnitude. If you do, you will end up regretting it for the rest of your life. These things don't come around too often. Just speaking from experience, my friend.

Keep in mind this youngster has already experienced Nemo where we had rates of 3-5" an hr on the NS of LI.  It was epic.  Alex you can say you've experienced twice!!!!!

Then he should stay home....can't be hogging ALL the storms. Gotta spread the wealth a lil' bit, you know what I'm saying???? NAH TOTALLY KIDDING LMAO Even so, I'd still come home. It's hard enough to be lucky enough to see one storm like that; but TWO? I'd exploit that to no end ahahaha

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:11 pm

Well H7 is closed off; that's a good sign

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:19 pm

If I'm looking at this correctly (WV map), is that energy already starting to dive down on the back side of the trough???

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:20 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Should i come home guys? Can i make it back thursday?
alex you should def come home. you can always make up the work. you may never see a storm like this the rest of your life
I emailed my meteorology professor and he sort of said yes. Calc Teacher said no though.

Alec, get your but home tonight - I Al Mugno NJ Teacher of the Year 2012, and Engineering/ CAD/ Architecture teacher of 23 years will write you a pass - classes will be there tomorrow - do not miss this - once in a lifetime storm you will kick yourself in the arse from now until you pass.

NO REGRETS!!!!!!

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:22 pm

this from another board. I believe he is a met with nws and he explains nws thinking on this storm


Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now
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Post by meeka312 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:23 pm

Working in NYC commuting home to eastern Monmouth county/ the danger zone lol. What time should I realistically plan on leaving the city?

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Post by HectorO Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:24 pm

If I go to work tomorrow. We're not aloud to leave. I currently work for NJ Transit. I'm just waiting on Christie to suspend transportation after a certain time. Whether he does or doesn't I'm not going in. If it gets suspended, we can still show up and get paid, as per union contract. However, I don't really like it there lol, so I think I'm going to call out.
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:26 pm

@mancave25 wrote:Mean while our bone head leaded gov. Christie still hasn't spoke about the storm . he must be to busy running for president and for got he's still governor

I have an early dismissal with the possibility of a closing - in my years of teaching we may not be back in school for the rest of the month - serious - blizzard of 96 closed us for three days and this ...........looks to be and will be worse!

Observation - the wv is stronger than thought.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:27 pm

@meeka312 wrote:Working in NYC commuting home to eastern Monmouth county/ the danger zone lol. What time should I realistically plan on leaving the city?

I would think you would want to leave by 1:00 depending on the timetable for you train...that NE corridor line is a nightmare in bad weather

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:28 pm

Check out the beautiful PNA Ridge in the west. Notice the area of bright pink rounding the NE edge of it taking a nose dive into the N plains. That is the jet streak Frank had mentioned the energy of which will catch up to the base of the trough causing it to go neg, and drive this sucker to go nuts on us.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-98.99,45.55,1024

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:29 pm

So are we locked in or are tonight models runs still important
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