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Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:45 am

Not good for me I guess
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:45 am

New update posted

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:45 am

Oh boy, here we go
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:46 am

i hope the GFS didn't set a trend for the day.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:47 am

Wow, 12z UKMET looks like EURO from last night

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:47 am

@docstox12 wrote:Had a feeling last night based on years of looking at this that major bombing would occur N and E and that NE would be the major winner.

Now, hopefully I can scratch out an 8 to 12 storm in the HV with positive ratios.

Doc I'll be lucky if I get snow flurries. 😢
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:47 am

NYC and NJ will see a Godzilla. I'm sure. Iv'e said it since I changed the banner. But could they get the Roidzilla? That's the question. LI...you pretty much know how I feel about you right now.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:49 am

So it's the GFS that's the outlier right now
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:49 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:So it's the GFS that's the outlier right now

And CMC. I would not call them outliers. 12 inches is still a great storm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:50 am

12z CMC total precip

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 Cmc_total_precip_nyc_12

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Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:52 am

Frank how further west are you thinking
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Post by snow247 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:53 am

Has the Euro been the most consistent than the other models for this storm?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:54 am

I meant going the other way more east. When is euro
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:55 am

GFS Ensembles DISAGREE with the OP. Red Flag GFS OP was wrong

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:56 am

@snow247 wrote:Has the Euro been the most consistent than the other models for this storm?

This question leads me to believe you did not read the latest update Sad Sad Sad 😢

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Post by jimv45 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:57 am

Still Southern Dutchess looks to be okay with over an inch of precipitation with ratios what do you think frank?

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:57 am

what does it mean if you are in the light yellow shading have not educated myself yet on how this map works tx
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:59 am

Once my snow map comes out at 3pm you'll be able to see what my thought's are regarding your area

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:59 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS Ensembles DISAGREE with the OP. Red Flag GFS OP was wrong

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

I knew it! Yay!
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:00 pm

UKIE goes KABOOM
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Post by snow247 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:01 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@snow247 wrote:Has the Euro been the most consistent than the other models for this storm?

This question leads me to believe you did not read the latest update Sad Sad Sad 😢

Haha sorry I'm in a rush and didn't notice the link, just read it, thanks.
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:01 pm

my twitter feed blew up after the GFS run with NYC before. lol people jump on everything too quick
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:01 pm

And bam, WPC dismisses that GFS due to convective feedback.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:02 pm

12z models update for NYC

1/25 12z Summary
NYC area : QPF (Snow)


SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 (>16")
NAM: 1.50 - 1.75 (>18")
GFS: 0.80 - 1.00 (>10")
RGEM: 1.00 (>12")
GGEM: 0.75 - 0.95 (>10")
UKMET: 1.25 - 1.50 (>20")
GEFS: 1.25 - 1.50 (>20")

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:03 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:And bam, WPC dismisses that GFS due to convective feedback.

They dismissed the entire storm yesterday. Evil or Very Mad Tired Mad

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