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Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

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Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:44 am

Had a feeling last night based on years of looking at this that major bombing would occur N and E and that NE would be the major winner.

Now, hopefully I can scratch out an 8 to 12 storm in the HV with positive ratios.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:44 am

Please follow the link to my latest blog. I understand the latest runs of the GFS/GGEM are concerning to some people (mainly NYC and NJ people) because the heavier precip is now confined to just LI, but you have to keep in mind this is still going to bring at least a 12-inch snowfall to pretty much everyone. It is still a big deal. Determining how extreme this storm will get is where the forecast gets tricky.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/01/blizzard-of-2015-impacts-timing.html


1st Call snow map at 3pm and you'll see my thoughts

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:45 am

Not good for me I guess
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:45 am

New update posted

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:45 am

Oh boy, here we go
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:46 am

i hope the GFS didn't set a trend for the day.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:47 am

Wow, 12z UKMET looks like EURO from last night

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 P1_GZ_D5_PN_042_0000

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:47 am

docstox12 wrote:Had a feeling last night based on years of looking at this that major bombing would occur N and E and that NE would be the major winner.

Now, hopefully I can scratch out an 8 to 12 storm in the HV with positive ratios.

Doc I'll be lucky if I get snow flurries. 😢
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:47 am

NYC and NJ will see a Godzilla. I'm sure. Iv'e said it since I changed the banner. But could they get the Roidzilla? That's the question. LI...you pretty much know how I feel about you right now.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:49 am

So it's the GFS that's the outlier right now
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:49 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:So it's the GFS that's the outlier right now

And CMC. I would not call them outliers. 12 inches is still a great storm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:50 am

12z CMC total precip

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 Cmc_total_precip_nyc_12

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Post by Artechmetals Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:52 am

Frank how further west are you thinking
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Post by snow247 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:53 am

Has the Euro been the most consistent than the other models for this storm?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:54 am

I meant going the other way more east. When is euro
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:55 am

GFS Ensembles DISAGREE with the OP. Red Flag GFS OP was wrong

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:56 am

snow247 wrote:Has the Euro been the most consistent than the other models for this storm?

This question leads me to believe you did not read the latest update Sad Sad Sad 😢

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Post by jimv45 Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:57 am

Still Southern Dutchess looks to be okay with over an inch of precipitation with ratios what do you think frank?

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:57 am

what does it mean if you are in the light yellow shading have not educated myself yet on how this map works tx
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:59 am

Once my snow map comes out at 3pm you'll be able to see what my thought's are regarding your area

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS Ensembles DISAGREE with the OP. Red Flag GFS OP was wrong

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 4 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

I knew it! Yay!
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:00 pm

UKIE goes KABOOM
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Post by snow247 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:01 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
snow247 wrote:Has the Euro been the most consistent than the other models for this storm?

This question leads me to believe you did not read the latest update Sad Sad Sad 😢

Haha sorry I'm in a rush and didn't notice the link, just read it, thanks.
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Post by RJB8525 Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:01 pm

my twitter feed blew up after the GFS run with NYC before. lol people jump on everything too quick
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:01 pm

And bam, WPC dismisses that GFS due to convective feedback.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:02 pm

12z models update for NYC

1/25 12z Summary
NYC area : QPF (Snow)


SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 (>16")
NAM: 1.50 - 1.75 (>18")
GFS: 0.80 - 1.00 (>10")
RGEM: 1.00 (>12")
GGEM: 0.75 - 0.95 (>10")
UKMET: 1.25 - 1.50 (>20")
GEFS: 1.25 - 1.50 (>20")

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:03 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:And bam, WPC dismisses that GFS due to convective feedback.

They dismissed the entire storm yesterday. Evil or Very Mad Tired Mad

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