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Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

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Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 36 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by Math23x7 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:42 am

@algae888 wrote:models tonight may have shifted east but a shift back west is not out of the question. I still feel 12-24 inches for a good part of our area. one thing concerning is the sharp cut off on the western side. this is often the case with coastal lows. where they set up is any ones guess.

Of course we all know about the sharp cutoff near where Tom lives from the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:44 am

Hey Al, yeah I guess we have two more shots 06z and 12z then its basically nowcasting, and even the morning will be nowcasting, how is present intensity and track looking compared to last euro by this point?
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:45 am

@Math23x7 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:models tonight may have shifted east but a shift back west is not out of the question. I still feel 12-24 inches for a good part of our area. one thing concerning is the sharp cut off on the western side. this is often the case with coastal lows. where they set up is any ones guess.

Of course we all know about the sharp cutoff near where Tom lives from the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010.
I cant think of a better place for it to set up.lol
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Post by Joe Snow Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:45 am

T-15 minutes till, what will be the most anticipated model run in the last decade
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:48 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Hey Al, yeah I guess we have two more shots 06z and 12z then its basically nowcasting, and even the morning will be nowcasting, how is present intensity and track looking compared to last euro by this point?
I was out tonight so just getting caught up on all the models and haven't look at observations.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:50 am

Here we go.....FOR ALL THE MARBLES

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Post by Joe Snow Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:51 am

1/25/14 1141pm model diagnostic disc
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A NOR'EASTER MON/TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM / 12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION BUT AS IS
ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE BIG STORMS...SMALL DETAIL DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN LARGE IMPACT DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITH
PRECIPITATION. PREFERENCES LISTED HERE REFLECT MODEL POSITION AND
MASS FIELDS...BUT REFER TO WPC WINTER WEATHER AND QPF DESK
PRODUCTS FOR INFORMATION ON LIQUID EQUIVALENTS/SNOW.

THROUGH 12Z/27...THE 00Z NAM...00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN POSITION AND STRENGTH REGARDING THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOWS BUT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY TUE MORNING.
ENSEMBLE TRENDS AND THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS...INITIALIZED
12Z/25...SUPPORT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF COMBO.

BEYOND 12Z/27...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF APPEARS BEST
AS THE GFS LIFTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH...QUICKER
THAN PREFERRED. HOWEVER...THE 21Z SREF MEAN...12Z EC MEAN AND 00Z
NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT A TRACK THAT IS FASTER TO
DEPART THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF.
THEREFORE REGARDING POSITION/STRENGTH...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND
12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED. BOTH THE 12Z UKMET/CMC APPEAR EITHER
UNSUPPORTED IN POSITION OR STRENGTH.
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Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 36 Empty Re: Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15)

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:51 am

@algae888 wrote:while I would love to see a historic event and was excited and fascinated by euro runs. they are rare. this was my post from this morning and how I felt all along.

remember record snows for our area are in the 20-30" range so the models saying 40" with ratios is hard to believe and if we expect that we may be dis appointed. let's just try to enjoy this. i'm talking to myself here.lol
.

I disagree a bit with that Al.

Many parts of NJ, HV and LI have seen 30 inch snows, some several, in the last decade so to say 20-30 range would be records for our area is just not true.

Now 40 inch that's another story, then your talking blizzard of 1888 and that's what Euro runs were showing in spots.

Going to bed, mentally drained but this thing can still do anything IMO, storms that blow up like this don't care what any model says.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:51 am

Not gonna lie, I already don't like the look of the H% trough.....too triangular and similar to the other runs

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:53 am

Through hour 18 surface low is ever so slightly east of 12z

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:54 am

@Math23x7 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:models tonight may have shifted east but a shift back west is not out of the question. I still feel 12-24 inches for a good part of our area. one thing concerning is the sharp cut off on the western side. this is often the case with coastal lows. where they set up is any ones guess.

Of course we all know about the sharp cutoff near where Tom lives from the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010.

Yea and this east trend is making this a BDB/Nemo redux but a muck more similar setup to Nemo.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:54 am

Interesting little lobe, though, at the base of the trough in 00z, might actually help us out. Idk....

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:55 am

H5 DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AS EARLY. SHE'S HEADED EAST, MY LADS

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:56 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@algae888 wrote:while I would love to see a historic event and was excited and fascinated by euro runs. they are rare. this was my post from this morning and how I felt all along.

remember record snows for our area are in the 20-30" range so the models saying 40" with ratios is hard to believe and if we expect that we may be dis appointed. let's just try to enjoy this. i'm talking to myself here.lol
.

I disagree a bit with that Al.

Many parts of NJ, HV and LI have seen 30 inch snows, some several,  in the last decade so to say 20-30 range would be records for our area is just not true.

Now 40 inch that's another story, then your talking blizzard of 1888 and that's what Euro runs were showing in spots.

Going to bed, mentally drained but this thing can still do anything IMO, storms that blow up like this don't care what any model says.
cp I was referring more to nyc metro. if im not mistaken places like lga, cpk and Newark records snow are around 37". could be wrong but that is what I remember. and how many 20" snow falls does cpk have. less than 10 I believe.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:56 am

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 36 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f27

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 36 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f30

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:57 am

Wow

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 36 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f33

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:58 am

WOW!!!

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 36 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

You guys seriously need to wait for the run to finish.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:59 am

ROIDZILLA?

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 36 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f39

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:59 am

WHAT THE HELL

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:59 am

Holy crap it stayed!
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Post by tigernumba1 Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:00 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:ROIDZILLA?

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 36 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f39

holy crap. that looks gorgeous
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:00 am

OMG Frank this a sandy model epic euro win!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:00 am

Update #3: Roidzilla Coming, But For Who? (1/26-1/27/15) - Page 36 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:00 am

Better than other models but its gonna be slashed from 12z
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:01 am

I told you what happens if it stays the same lol
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