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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:43 am

I have work all day tomorrow so I am forced to make a final map now. This forecast is very tough. One thing I noticed with the higher resolution models is they had the low pressure system follow the area of convection to its NE quadrant. To me, that is a form of convective feedback. EURO did tick slightly east, but the dynamics at play with the jet streaks just overwhelm the storm in my opinion. I went down slightly from 1st call, especially for western areas. Take note of the dotted yellow lines. Those located inside that circle could see locally higher amounts than what my call says. It all depends on the banding, and the exact track of the storm. For example, NYC could see 24+ inches of snow instead of the max of 22 I have. The EURO would suggest that. We'll see how this plays out. It should be a great one to track. Notice timing (NYC Metro) is in the upper right of map. Enjoy the storm everyone and stay safe.

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map 10940511_878019592249801_1971296553552798868_n

No matter what, blizzard conditions can be expected early Tuesday morning through early afternoon where warnings are posted. The wind has been the one constant on the models. Sustained between 25-35mph with gusts as high as 60 mph for NYC. 70+ mph over LI. This could lead to power outages. PREPARE FOR THAT. White out conditions leading to reduced visibility will be a concern. Snowfall rates will be between 2 to as much as 5 inches PER HOUR in some of the heavier banding. There WILL be thunder-snow, especially out on LI and NE.

I'll create an observations thread when I get home. Or if someone on staff can do it around 4-5pm, that would be great. Thank you!

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:46 am

frank nice map. and thanks for all the hard work
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:48 am

Great job kid. Hope this pans out. seems like a nice compromise between better performing EURO and American models. Where the 12 to 22 line and 24+ line meet goes right through my house.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:53 am

That was pretty much what I was thinking too, Frank, except my numbers reflect more of the "eastern" guidance, so they're further east and somewhat lower. Hopefully I wake to improvements lol Great work and great fun, my man!!! Btw, how do you draw those maps? I'd like to try to make a few maps lol

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:01 am

Great Frank i will take 22, but I still stand that I think euro totals are coming but your the best here so i will trust in you. I have a feeling some will be in for a surprise in either direction.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:02 am

Know whats funny the one time frank calls for high winds in NYC the euro doesnt show that lol, go figure
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Post by Puff the magic dragon Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:16 am

Bullseye most snow in Franks latest snow map eastern nassau western suffolk county

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Post by Yschiff Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:06 am

I heard the nam is west

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:09 am

Holy fn shot NAM IS EURO OF 12Z RUNS NAM IS EURO IF 12Z RUN EPIC SNOW BROUGHT IT BACK WEST CAVING TO EURO BIG IMO

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:11 am

Taking lp nnw direction maybe a tad overdone but Frank's original map verifies on this wtf. We see gfs do a jog west at 6z then it is just crazy

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:14 am

Jesus h I know it over does the qpf but Christ almighty the evolution is euro of 12z and 0 z last night - gfs better come around at 6z or else ......
showing insane amounts for nyc
this is within its time frame of 24 hrs before the big show

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Post by Yschiff Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:16 am

The nam crushes nyc


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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:22 am

[quote="Yschiff"]The nam crushes nyc

[/quote

30+ inchest let me pull the clown map but a GREAT trend back my god BD 2???

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:23 am

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map Eqy00m

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:26 am

Slowed down the lp to a crawl heights raises beautifully our in front closed off over Delmarva and went east then retrograde back wnw like a loop mother of mercy this I hope is a trend hey it did it at 0z this is the off hour let's hope its not the stupid nam bombed this bad boy out to 970 over LI and snowed for 35 hrs nyc metro

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:26 am

6z rgem then gfs and we see what is what

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Post by Yschiff Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:27 am

Is that map including Ratios?

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:29 am

Al by myself don't wanna be all by myself ........

Wake up

Let me go back to sleep wake up in T - 2 hours

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:31 am

@Yschiff wrote:Is that map including Ratios?

No that is the sick part but like I said qpf overdone the key is the evolution of the h5 so fing important and it showed almost bettee than euro at h5 from 0z last night and 12 z today picking up on energy and clipper position

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:36 am

@amugs wrote:Al by myself don't wanna be all by myself ........

Wake up  

Let me go back to sleep wake up in T - 2 hours
just woke up and bam nam goes with euro. said this would happen after euro run nam was close last night.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:38 am

That nam crushes me with 2 ft here on coast
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:40 am

12:1 ratios calculated in map so it is pretty straight up maybe a few more inches but nothing more

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:40 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:That nam crushes me with 2 ft here on coast
yes skins crushes a lot of us. 2.5" qpf. wow this is really fun tracking this. if you like agita that is.lol
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:42 am

@algae888 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Al by myself don't wanna be all by myself ........

Wake up  

Let me go back to sleep wake up in T - 2 hours
just woke up and bam nam goes with euro. said this would happen after euro run nam was close last night.

Pais an u heard me the Al squared team moderating the graveyard shift and hopefully we have a wonderful surprise come 6 run!

Upton dropped us to18-24 boo hoo still a hecs and afree the first part of winter we take it

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:44 am

mugs that's 30+" for nyc
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