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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by crippo84 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:56 am

Precipitation wall/field starting to form and fill in just east of DelMarVa...
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:57 am

@tigernumba1 wrote:does anybody know if the GFS even matched the current surface maps?
Not in the upper levels. GFS wants the trough to go negative at 2pm. Check out the latest water vapor loop. IT IS ALREADY NEGATIVE!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:57 am

Everyone just forget the GFS, even the other models really its watch and wait time, I do want to see 12z euro after that its all go time.
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:59 am

like Doc said. the GFS needs to be strangled and beaten

Cuomo and Christie are expected to give conferences within the half hour
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Post by photec Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:03 pm

Christie's Press Conference

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Post by tigernumba1 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:04 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@tigernumba1 wrote:does anybody know if the GFS even matched the current surface maps?
Not in the upper levels. GFS wants the trough to go negative at 2pm. Check out the latest water vapor loop. IT IS ALREADY NEGATIVE!!!

ok good! hopefully we can throw out the GFS
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Post by Abba701 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:06 pm

Did anyone see the Futurecast now with Bill? Didn't look too good.

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Post by sabamfa Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:11 pm

@Abba701 wrote:Did anyone see the Futurecast now with Bill? Didn't look too good.

For those of us at work.....can you elaborate on that, please?

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Post by Abba701 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:12 pm

It didn't seem like it would snow much till later.And not that heavy after.Ends by about 8 or 9.And a very close call.west of us could see nothing.

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Post by Abba701 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:13 pm

In Long Island it stays longer.

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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:20 pm

Wow, they prefer the NAM/EURO. Read the bolded part.

THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN AT 500
MB AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND THEN MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUE. OVERALL
HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00/06/12Z RUNS ARE
MINOR. IN COMPARISON TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFS
REMAINS BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL ALONG
THE EASTERN/PROGRESSIVE EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE LINGERING MODEL SPREAD...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM (NEGATIVE TILT) AND A
SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGE NOSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...A
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE FASTER CAMP.


AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE BIG STORMS...SMALL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES RESULT IN LARGE IMPACT DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITH
PRECIPITATION. PREFERENCES LISTED HERE REFLECT MODEL POSITION AND
MASS FIELDS...BUT REFER TO WPC WINTER WEATHER AND QPF DESK
PRODUCTS FOR INFORMATION ON LIQUID EQUIVALENTS/SNOW.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:20 pm

Well, GFS and RPM show a lot less, NAM and EURO show a lot.I'll check the 1 PM EURO as the final model check and then I will know myself when I watch the storm on radar.The models got it here.Now it's time for the storm to do it's thing.It will or it won't, that's about it.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:21 pm

Futurecast maps stink IMO, twc never verifies, I do not know about theirs though but I wouldn't worry, this is going to be huge for many especially around NYC and LI/S CT
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:30 pm

So Cuomo and Christie both declared state of emergencies. both mass transit between 10-11 except NYC public buses will be shut down. Cuomo is also going to go by the 4pm weather update to determine full actions
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:32 pm

NICE move by NWS - they bring the gods - GFS H5 was good but OP was out to lunch - just got done with school time to blog after I get home.

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Post by oldtimer Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:34 pm

Frank Do you think a double barral low that moves out faster We were talking about a 30hrs duration Is that still in play now thanks

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Post by Abba701 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:34 pm

I saw the futurecast again.A break around 7pm then comes back at 10 or 11 then It didn't show the rest.But who knows how accurate it is.


Last edited by Abba701 on Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:36 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by billg315 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:35 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, they prefer the NAM/EURO. Read the bolded part.

THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN AT 500
MB AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND THEN MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUE.  OVERALL
HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00/06/12Z RUNS ARE
MINOR.  IN COMPARISON TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFS
REMAINS BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL ALONG
THE EASTERN/PROGRESSIVE EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE LINGERING MODEL SPREAD...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM (NEGATIVE TILT) AND A
SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGE NOSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...A
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE FASTER CAMP.


AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE BIG STORMS...SMALL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES RESULT IN LARGE IMPACT DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITH
PRECIPITATION. PREFERENCES LISTED HERE REFLECT MODEL POSITION AND
MASS FIELDS...BUT REFER TO WPC WINTER WEATHER AND QPF DESK
PRODUCTS FOR INFORMATION ON LIQUID EQUIVALENTS/SNOW.

Frank, if the NAM pans out and verifies the EURO, will you sleep with the NAM one more time? lol j/k
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:37 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, they prefer the NAM/EURO. Read the bolded part.

THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND FASTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN AT 500
MB AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND THEN MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUE.  OVERALL
HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00/06/12Z RUNS ARE
MINOR.  IN COMPARISON TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFS
REMAINS BETTER CLUSTERED WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL ALONG
THE EASTERN/PROGRESSIVE EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE LINGERING MODEL SPREAD...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM (NEGATIVE TILT) AND A
SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM RIDGE NOSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...A
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE FASTER CAMP.


AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE BIG STORMS...SMALL DETAIL
DIFFERENCES RESULT IN LARGE IMPACT DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITH
PRECIPITATION. PREFERENCES LISTED HERE REFLECT MODEL POSITION AND
MASS FIELDS...BUT REFER TO WPC WINTER WEATHER AND QPF DESK
PRODUCTS FOR INFORMATION ON LIQUID EQUIVALENTS/SNOW.

Frank, if the NAM pans out and verifies the EURO, will you sleep with the NAM one more time? lol j/k

More than once.

Look at the lightening involved with this storm. If the NAM/EURO really are right, someone will see 36+ inches

Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 12 YFN1JB2

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:38 pm

Cuomo on, still talking about 24-36 inches. Saying at 4pm, making decision of mta and highways.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:38 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Frank  Do you think a double barral low that moves out faster  We were talking about a 30hrs duration  Is that still in play now   thanks

No, definitely not 30 hours. For LI I am thinking 20-25 hours. But this is also dependent on the track of the storm

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:40 pm

According to Steve D he says current satellite obs show the developing low off NC is clearly more west than currently progged by the models. He said though the most important aspect of the low is when it closes off.
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Post by tigernumba1 Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:41 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:According to Steve D he says current satellite obs show the developing low off NC is clearly more west than currently progged by the models. He said though the most important aspect of the low is when it closes off.

I thought it already closed off
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:42 pm

EURO has initialized. Everyone, run.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:42 pm

@tigernumba1 wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:According to Steve D he says current satellite obs show the developing low off NC is clearly more west than currently progged by the models. He said though the most important aspect of the low is when it closes off.

I thought it already closed off

It's not supposed to until late tonight

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