Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

What's with the 6z GFS?

It looks like it moved a bit to the euro shows LI with a big hit city with about 20 inches but still sharp cut off for NJ, still with 12 to 20 inches. But I'm not an expert still a lot to learn.

It was only a foot for the city at 00z if I remeber correctly.

So, I have my coffee and clicked on NWS and happily,I still see red in my area.Sure, max amounts down from 29 to 20, but this is still a major snowstorm.First flakes about to arrive.Nice 17.6 degree temp so my ratios are gonna be great with this storm to make up for less qpf. Looks like Jman and AL are in the sweet spot here.

Let the good times roll!!!!!!

Don't forget US here on the the Jersey coast these type of storms really give it to US good BD blizzard we had almost 3 feet. I think some spots here will over achieve. Especially if heavy banding sets up.

6z gfs

6zrgem

both about 12" maybe 14" with ratios for nyc more east less west

Also it's lightly snowing here already and winds gusting up to 15 mph

WOW Mugs your shot out of a cannon this morning !

So the nyc and northeast jersey area totals have dropped since yesterday? LI to get more? Trying to play catch up here.

Long day ahead of me start work at 6 for DPW we will be full swing here

With ratios, gives me a foot or a little more.Thinking EURO with NAM caving to it are the solutions.I'd say we are getting close to nowcast anyway.

Not according to the Euro or nam runs. They still hammer us

Does this change the snow totals for us folks out in EPA ?

What's with that GFS? Did it ever have 20 plus in the city?

NWS out of my. Holly as of 330 am calling for my area here along coastal nj 18-24 inches.

Euro showed a huge hit for the city earlier this morning and the name caved to it as well maps are somewhere in This thread

I believe it showed over 2 inches of liquid for NYC

SNOW MAN wrote:Does this change the snow totals for us folks out in EPA ?

Morning, Snow.

NWS has you for 8 to 14, pretty darn nice when you consider if the EURO caved east, you would have gotten rooked!

today look for light snow and 1-3" acc by sunset
IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND DEVELOP INTO A NOR`EASTER.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST SW
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE. THIS SNOW WILL SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
THIS FIRST WAVE OF SNOW.

Good morning Doc, that's not bad, but I wish I could have been in the area of the larger snow totals. But the way I look at it, I won't have as much to clean up and I'll still get a day off work. I'm pretty sure my work will be closed tomorrow and possibly even Weds. because their located in Whippany NJ closer to all the higher snow amounts.

for the main event euro sref and nam are solid 20+" for nyc east... gfs and cmc/rgem are closer to 12" here is nws disco which I agree with
LIFE THREATENING...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM EXPECTED
FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE AT SUCH A SHORT RANGE. MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWER SNOW
TOTALS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS. IT DID LOWER QPF SLIGHTLY...BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM REMAINED SIMILAR TO ITS 12Z RUN. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES WITH
JUST ONE MODEL CYCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST 06Z NAM HAS COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEANS
REMAINED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM.

THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST NE OUTLIER. IT MAY ALSO BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS QPF
MAXIMUM OFFSHORE...AND DOES NOT SEEM TO GET FULLY CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW.

Euro was a tick east but then it retrograde back west it was a crazy run

Both NAM and GFS made a big trend to euro at 6z.

6z gfs total precip



6z nam



Prepare for the worst which would be the euro/nam on LI. It's not like these models are showing this 48 hours out. The storm is TODAY. Even NYC is 18+

I hear ya, Snow, but these coastals in recent years have all had sharp cutoffs. The Nemo gave me 9 inches and LI, not far from Mahwah NJ had over 30 inches.It is what it is.Love the big Miller A types that give you AREA WIDE 20 plus inch totals.Anyhoo, enjoy the day off tomorrow.I'll be on the computer reporting in from time to time.See you here,pal!

Frank_Wx wrote:Both NAM and GFS made a big trend to euro at 6z.

6z gfs total precip



6z nam



Prepare for the worst which would be the euro/nam on LI. It's not like these models are showing this 48 hours out. The storm is TODAY. Even NYC is 18+

KING EURO trumps all!

we should see deformation bands with rates as high as 4" per hour where these set up will likely see 24+" snow totals