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Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:58 am

Pretty sure that's only based on 10:1 ratios, too, so add a couple of inches to (depending on where you live) at least.

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Post by essexcountypete Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:58 am

amugs wrote:EURO AND GFS AGREE - MY GOD!!!

I swear I felt a disturbance in The Force. Like a million voices crying out "SNOW"!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:00 am

What's wwa
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:00 am

Okay lets make a gentlemen's agreement on this board to not post the NAM until after its overhaul or not within 24 hours???

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:03 am

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:All I'll say is that the 12z GFS realizes the WAA A LOT more than 00z lol Same track. We ALL GET SMOKED, except for the southern quarter of NJ.

RB - could be Godzilla with Snow ratios as i checked Skew t's - easily and I mean easily 15:1 up to 25:1 - insane - then the Brutal cold roll sin and turns this snow pack which could be 18-24 inches after this storm.

Yeah, I figured. With temps barely into the upper teens/low 20s at the surface, that's like -10 to -20 at 850 hPa. The thing to look at, Mugs, is where 850-~500 hPa temperatures are. If they can go isothermal between -8 to 12 celsius 9 (or so) you will realize the primed dendritic snow growth zone, which would REALLY allow it to stack up.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:03 am

jimv45 wrote:this looks for us cp and people north of 287 if this trend keeps going will do well!!!

Jim:

I'm thinking the same, we can even handle another 30-50 mile jog north and we'd still be golden. Lots of time though and I believe a lot of these samples are not on land yet.
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Post by devsman Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:06 am

amugs wrote:Okay lets make a gentlemen's agreement on this board  to not post the NAM until after its overhaul or not within 24 hours???

I will be very angry if someone posts the NAM! And you wouldn't want to see me angry. Evil or Very Mad
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:06 am

amugs wrote:Okay lets make a gentlemen's agreement on this board  to not post the NAM until after its overhaul or not within 24 hours???

Even within 24 hours. Look what it did the on the 12Z the day of the storm, 40-50 inches with ratios over Orange county. Please I'll never trust that unamed model again, and I didn't before.
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Post by RJB8525 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:09 am

I went to the store with my wife to do weekly shopping.I couldn't get 1 package of ground beef at shoprite they had no deliveries and what they had people killed for
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:12 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:What's wwa

Warm Air Advection. Think of it this way, Skins. You know there's a warm front at the surface, but it isn't ONLY at the surface, it's throughout the atmospheric column. Because cold air is much more dense than warm air, the warm air being brought northward on the southerly winds ahead of this system is forced up and over the cold air. Where the warm air is able to remain at the surface, those areas are behind the warm front (at the surface), but it reaches a point where it can't scour out the cold air entirely, and so must flow over the dome of cold air. As it continues northward the cold air becomes deeper. The division between the dome of cold air beneath the warm air being ADVECTED over it by the winds is the same warm front as it is at the surface, but it's just higher up. And, in practice, the warm air will look like a wedge on top of the cold dome if you took a vertical cross section through the column. As long as the cold dome can remain cold enough through the precipitation formation zone, it will snow. The shallower the cold air becomes, the "warmer" your precipitation becomes i.e. sleet-->freezing rain-->rain. Make sense?

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:16 am

rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:What's wwa

Warm Air Advection. Think of it this way, Skins. You know there's a warm front at the surface, but it isn't ONLY at the surface, it's throughout the atmospheric column. Because cold air is much more dense than warm air, the warm air being brought northward on the southerly winds ahead of this system is forced up and over the cold air. Where the warm air is able to remain at the surface, those areas are behind the warm front (at the surface), but it reaches a point where it can't scour out the cold air entirely, and so must flow over the dome of cold air. As it continues northward the cold air becomes deeper. The division between the dome of cold air beneath the warm air being ADVECTED over it by the winds is the same warm front as it is at the surface, but it's just higher up. And, in practice, the warm air will look like a wedge on top of the cold dome if you took a vertical cross section through the column. As long as the cold dome can remain cold enough through the precipitation formation zone, it will snow. The shallower the cold air becomes, the "warmer" your precipitation becomes i.e. sleet-->freezing rain-->rain. Make sense?

Thanks man appreciate it
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:19 am

rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:What's wwa

Warm Air Advection. Think of it this way, Skins. You know there's a warm front at the surface, but it isn't ONLY at the surface, it's throughout the atmospheric column. Because cold air is much more dense than warm air, the warm air being brought northward on the southerly winds ahead of this system is forced up and over the cold air. Where the warm air is able to remain at the surface, those areas are behind the warm front (at the surface), but it reaches a point where it can't scour out the cold air entirely, and so must flow over the dome of cold air. As it continues northward the cold air becomes deeper. The division between the dome of cold air beneath the warm air being ADVECTED over it by the winds is the same warm front as it is at the surface, but it's just higher up. And, in practice, the warm air will look like a wedge on top of the cold dome if you took a vertical cross section through the column. As long as the cold dome can remain cold enough through the precipitation formation zone, it will snow. The shallower the cold air becomes, the "warmer" your precipitation becomes i.e. sleet-->freezing rain-->rain. Make sense?

Great explanation.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:20 am

Thursday another threat though S&E on GFS - its bias of course but it is there and plenty of time to trend.

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f150

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:24 am

I'm thinking this is going to be tough for my are a thread theneedle
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:27 am

@ Skins: No worries. That's why we're all here; to learn Smile.

@Soul: Thanks!!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:36 am

Here's the latest (12z) GFS LIQUID EQUIVALENT (in inches) forecast accumulated p-types:

http://coolwx.com/ptype/gifs/ne.gfsacctype12-30.gif

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:37 am

GFS is a beautiful track and very cold. Would be a Godzilla, especially along coast where some precip is enhanced. I'm checking in just now and then..glad some people are not naming the NAM specifically. You will be banned.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:37 am

With ratios, it's probably a widespread 8-12" from Philly northward to just north of the Catskills.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:42 am

sounds good to me.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:42 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jimv45 wrote:this looks for us cp and people north of 287 if this trend keeps going will do well!!!

Jim:

I'm thinking the same, we can even handle another 30-50 mile jog north and we'd still be golden. Lots of time though and I believe a lot of these samples are not on land yet.

You are guys should do well due to the high ratios for you like I said on the Skew t's which I am still learning to read. Your ratios should 20:1 +

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:43 am

Anywhere from .7" to 1.00" qpf. Those near .90"-1.00" qpf probably looking at around 12-15 inches of snow

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 5 Gfs_tprecip_nyc_18

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Post by oldtimer Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:47 am

Frank You see any mixing right now?

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:49 am

So coastal areas were I'm at GFS would be great Frank?
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:49 am

rb924119 wrote:With ratios, it's probably a widespread 8-12" from Philly northward to just north of the Catskills.

Rb - not getting crazy here but if you get a 15:1 ratio with the 1" QPF - you have Godzilla and .8 QPF at 20:1 you have 16"

I am seeing right now a storm like we saw last Super bowl - but with much more QPF - very high ratios - remember this as the storm or Monday moves along the cold air is sinking in at the ratios go up so say you start at 12:1 you could very well end up at 18:1 or 20:1.

Also where the barclonic zone sets up between the waa and very cold air - a strip about 10-20 miles + wide can get crushed due to the dynamics of the cold air and warm air clashing together - I hope it sets up over those area that were starved by last storm - Momma N has to even it out - sorry LI guys

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:52 am

GGEM IS A HUGE HIT!!!! SHOWS A MECS IN CITY, HECS NORTH AND WEST!!!
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Post by devsman Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:55 am

need a 12" for Deblasio to close schools. Timing of it looks perfect though. Wasn't GGEM very south of other solutions? If it came up that fast in the models, hope it stops where it is now.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:55 am

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:With ratios, it's probably a widespread 8-12" from Philly northward to just north of the Catskills.

Rb - not getting crazy here but if you get a 15:1 ratio with the 1" QPF - you have Godzilla and .8 QPF at 20:1 you have  16"

I am seeing right now a storm like we saw last Super bowl - but with much more QPF - very high ratios - remember this as the storm or Monday moves along the cold air is sinking in at the ratios go up so say you start at 12:1 you could very well end up at 18:1 or 20:1.

Also where the barclonic zone sets up between the waa and very cold air - a strip about 10-20 miles +  wide can get crushed due to the dynamics of the cold air and warm air clashing together - I hope it sets up over those area that were starved by last storm - Momma N has to even it out - sorry LI guys

I *think* that in a situation like this, the ratios might actually decrease slightly, especially the further south you go due to the strength of the WAA. Once the mid-level lows (850/700/500 HPa) get overhead and then pass that's when they'll start going up rather quickly. I'd expect a general 10-15:1 from south to north for at least the first half or two-thirds of the storm, before colder air can get drawn into the precipitation formation zone. Gotta remember, it's not the temperatures at the surface that matter; it's the ones aloft where the snow is actually being made that lead to your ratios.

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