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Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

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Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 2 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:58 pm

Uhhhh anybody out there watching the 00z GFS? Pretty sure it's about to show a SECS for NYC.....

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:02 pm

GFS takes the blue track!!

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:03 pm

Actually, between green and blue

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:04 pm

Yessir, a bit further north and a 5-8" snowfall from Philly to the lower Hudson Valley Smile

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:05 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Yessir, a bit further north and a 5-8" snowfall from Philly to the lower Hudson Valley Smile

Yup. Solid. Maybe even 6-10 with ratios

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:06 pm

I'm telling you, Frank; I have a good feeling about this one. The western ridge is going to be the key, but it would appear that the GFS (at least right now) has come back to the idea of maintaining it. Interesting to note, it did not appear to me that there was any interaction at all between the two streams. It looked entirely northern-stream driven.

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:07 pm

From my phone, the GFS snow map looks like a solid 8-12" for NYC metro.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:09 pm

It's just absolutely fascinating to me that this energy won't be onshore until tomorrow afternoon, won't be sampled until Saturday's 00z suite, and it will make it here within 36 hours. Too fast lmao

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:10 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I'm telling you, Frank; I have a good feeling about this one. The western ridge is going to be the key, but it would appear that the GFS (at least right now) has come back to the idea of maintaining it. Interesting to note, it did not appear to me that there was any interaction at all between the two streams. It looked entirely northern-stream driven.

It is northern stream driven, but you see that vort in SW US? A piece broke off this run and tried to phase into the northern stream energy. If that's a trend, we'll see this storm getting progressively stronger.

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 2 Post-910-0-27998500-1422590996.gif.pagespeed.ce.MwNvvAyfsl


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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:10 pm

It's a fast storm. 8-12 hours.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I'm telling you, Frank; I have a good feeling about this one. The western ridge is going to be the key, but it would appear that the GFS (at least right now) has come back to the idea of maintaining it. Interesting to note, it did not appear to me that there was any interaction at all between the two streams. It looked entirely northern-stream driven.

It is northern stream driven, but you see that vort in SW US? A piece broke off this run and tried to phase into the northern stream energy. If that's a trend, we'll see this storm getting progressively stronger.

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 2 Post-910-0-27998500-1422590996.gif.pagespeed.ce.MwNvvAyfsl


I did see it, but it looked to me like it sheared out to the point that it was not even really present. We just have to be careful with that, though; the more interaction we see, the finer the line we have to walk on with this system. Too much, and we are back to an Apps runner, although quite frankly I don't see that as a viable track at all, regardless of intensity. We'd just end up watching the WAA win out because of a track too far north

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:17 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:It's a fast storm. 8-12 hours.

That's how these hybrid SWFE/Miller A-type systems are; fast and furious. They put down a lot of moisture (Gulf access) in a short time (progressive flow). That screws a lot of mets over because often times they underestimate the WAA and heavy rates of precipitation associated with that.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:19 pm

And, not trying to get off-topic nor ahead of ourselves, but I think we are about to witness a massive Miller A hybrid for the end of next week by the GFS lol

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:22 pm

Lee expecting it to be south....

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Post by oldtimer Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:24 pm

Is Lee seeing something we are not?? lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:25 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Lee expecting it to be south....

Lee says purple track. Hmmmmm

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:26 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:Lee expecting it to be south....

Lee says purple track. Hmmmmm

Maybe going off of last nights/early todays runs?

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Post by jimv45 Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:27 pm

Lee will need to hold off on that south talk looks like this wants to go north will see .

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:27 pm

I'm gonna get to bed guys, I'll check back in tomorrow. Happy model watching and sweet dreams of waist-deep snow, baby!!!

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:34 pm

This storm is crazy similar to the storm that last minute shifted north and slammed SCT south with 6-10" of snow the night of the Super Bowl into the following day last year.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:51 pm

GGEM says purple track, lol

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:55 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:GGEM says purple track, lol

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 2 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

Well. I believe that's progress from the 12z run at least.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 29, 2015 11:56 pm

It is

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Post by jimv45 Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:00 am

Nothing is easy this year. might not know again until this storm is close.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:04 am

00z gefs are a nice hit. .75 qpf. 00z ukie is very amplified. Might bring rain to the area. Model spread everywhere. Leaning in gfs and gefs for now.

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