Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Just what a crazy winter just yesterday it was supposed to sock the city on south and miss us northern areas now it might rain there and the heavy snow is going north just crazy but things could change again.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
RJB8525 wrote:This isn't looking so hot for NYC..
Stop. The 00z models didn't even come out yet.
Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
jimv45 wrote:Just what a crazy winter just yesterday it was supposed to sock the city on south and miss us northern areas now it might rain there and the heavy snow is going north just crazy but things could change again.
Stop.
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
We'll see how the GFS/CMC/ECM suite goes I did get a little ahead of myself but Im saying if we see north its a bad trend to see as we get closer.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Too early to say if it will be all snow or go to a bad freezing rain situation or sleet situation. The most important feature is the storm that just past and blew up off Maine. The models have just picked up the actual intensity of this low . The whole key to this upcoming storm is how quick the system past Maine continues to move away.
WeatherBob- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
WeatherBob wrote:Too early to say if it will be all snow or go to a bad freezing rain situation or sleet situation. Â The most important feature is the storm that just past and blew up off Maine. Â The models have just picked up the actual intensity of this low . Â The whole key to this upcoming storm is how quick the system past Maine continues to move away. Â Â
Bingo.
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
hey everyone its the unnamed model come on already. its always amped up. btw rgem is south of the nam at hour 48. lets wait and see what happens
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
00z rgem is 80 miles south of the NAM when you compare the 2 at 48 hours (rgem only goes out to 48 hours)
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Sorry frank wrong thread lets just hope for the best.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Frank_Wx wrote:00z rgem is 80 miles south of the NAM when you compare the 2 at 48 hours (rgem only goes out to 48 hours)
Just be careful Frank; those super-range models compound a lot of error by the end of their run.....gotta take it with some trepidation.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Tom I warned u about the NAM!
oh and to back it is even Nick Gregory alluded to the nam but said it was not the best model and we'll leave it at that -ouch!
oh and to back it is even Nick Gregory alluded to the nam but said it was not the best model and we'll leave it at that -ouch!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
The latest SREFs are bringing the warm nose in on line from about Harrisburg, Pa to the mouth of the Hudson River. SREF probabilities are also yielding a 60% chance of over a foot just to the north of that line. That shows you that wherever that boundary sets up, within about 50-75 miles north of it, there will be some insaneeee WAA/upglide banding that could rival some of the lower end of the rates seen in Juno. That will surely be a now-cast situation no matter what the models say: It's way too meso-scale to be picked up by anything outside of a few hours prior.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
00z GFS is running. Here we go, ladies and gentlemen.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Listen the NAM did not even sample the fn cofluen e after hr 48 for God's sake . IF this piece of crap model ever verified then we have a historic ice frigging storm and milions lose power. 00z runs 6z runs and 12 z guys
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Northern stream energy looks slightly weaker than 12z though 18
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
At hour 27 heights looK a little higher along the EC compared to 18z gfs
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Heights may be slightly higher ahead of the southern stream energy. OR it may just be faster in shifting the ridge eastward. Kind of hard for me to tell.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Just wanna throw this in. Mr.G and Gregory don't think ice at all so far
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Although that could be, Frank, I think this will end up with about the same track because the ridge looks like it is collapsing a little sooner than 12z. Thoughts?
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Confluent low looks further south though
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
amugs wrote:Listen the NAM did not even sample the fn cofluen e after hr 48 for God's sake . IF this piece of crap model ever verified then we have a historic ice frigging storm and milions lose power. 00z runs 6z runs and 12 z guys
NAM nailed one of the storms last year from its LR, even its long range extention DGEX had it, I believe it was Feb 3rd which was one of these east to west storms, im just saying it has its moments and flops like every model (admittedly flops more) but you cant 100% dismiss it every single run...
Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Frank_Wx wrote:Confluent low looks further south though
That's good....stronger synoptic forcing via jet entrance region
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
rb924119 wrote:Although that could be, Frank, I think this will end up with about the same track because the ridge looks like it is collapsing a little sooner than 12z. Thoughts?
Ridge definitely collapsing quicker
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Heights are definitely higher though for the east through 52, but not by too much.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Frank_Wx wrote:rb924119 wrote:Although that could be, Frank, I think this will end up with about the same track because the ridge looks like it is collapsing a little sooner than 12z. Thoughts?
Ridge definitely collapsing quicker
I think that will be our saving grace from a cutter here.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Surface low is about 100 miles north of 12z but boy is this thing juicy.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?
Looks like there will be mixing issues for the NYC metro on the 0z GFS
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