NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

+34
Quietace
lglickman1
Artechmetals
Yschiff
gigs68
mako460
nutleyblizzard
algae888
SNOW MAN
Math23x7
billg315
RJB8525
CPcantmeasuresnow
carvin1079
NjWeatherGuy
pdubz
aiannone
jimv45
oldtimer
Dunnzoo
SoulSingMG
rb924119
Mac003
sroc4
jmanley32
essexcountypete
amugs
Scullybutcher
docstox12
Taffy
devsman
weatherwatchermom
skinsfan1177
Frank_Wx
38 posters

Page 12 of 17 Previous  1 ... 7 ... 11, 12, 13 ... 17  Next

Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by jimv45 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:13 pm

Just what a crazy winter just yesterday it was supposed to sock the city on south and miss us northern areas now it might rain there and the heavy snow is going north just crazy but things could change again.

jimv45
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1168
Join date : 2013-09-20

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:14 pm

RJB8525 wrote:This isn't looking so hot for NYC..

Stop. The 00z models didn't even come out yet.

Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Join date : 2013-01-05

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:15 pm

jimv45 wrote:Just what a crazy winter just yesterday it was supposed to sock the city on south and miss us northern areas now it might rain there and the heavy snow is going north just crazy but things could change again.

Stop.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:15 pm

We'll see how the GFS/CMC/ECM suite goes I did get a little ahead of myself but Im saying if we see north its a bad trend to see as we get closer.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by WeatherBob Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:18 pm

Too early to say if it will be all snow or go to a bad freezing rain situation or sleet situation. The most important feature is the storm that just past and blew up off Maine. The models have just picked up the actual intensity of this low . The whole key to this upcoming storm is how quick the system past Maine continues to move away.
WeatherBob
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 683
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 500 FT

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:18 pm

WeatherBob wrote:Too early to say if it will be all snow or go to a bad freezing rain situation or sleet situation.  The most important feature is the storm that just past and blew up off Maine.  The models have just picked up the actual intensity of this low .  The whole key to this upcoming storm is how quick the system past Maine continues to move away.    

Bingo.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by algae888 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:20 pm

hey everyone its the unnamed model come on already. its always amped up. btw rgem is south of the nam at hour 48. lets wait and see what happens
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:20 pm

00z rgem is 80 miles south of the NAM when you compare the 2 at 48 hours (rgem only goes out to 48 hours)

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by jimv45 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:23 pm

Sorry frank wrong thread lets just hope for the best.

jimv45
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1168
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Hopewell jct.

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z rgem is 80 miles south of the NAM when you compare the 2 at 48 hours (rgem only goes out to 48 hours)

Just be careful Frank; those super-range models compound a lot of error by the end of their run.....gotta take it with some trepidation.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by amugs Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:27 pm

Tom I warned u about the NAM!
oh and to back it is even Nick Gregory alluded to the nam but said it was not the best model and we'll leave it at that -ouch!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:33 pm

The latest SREFs are bringing the warm nose in on line from about Harrisburg, Pa to the mouth of the Hudson River. SREF probabilities are also yielding a 60% chance of over a foot just to the north of that line. That shows you that wherever that boundary sets up, within about 50-75 miles north of it, there will be some insaneeee WAA/upglide banding that could rival some of the lower end of the rates seen in Juno. That will surely be a now-cast situation no matter what the models say: It's way too meso-scale to be picked up by anything outside of a few hours prior.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:35 pm

00z GFS is running. Here we go, ladies and gentlemen.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by amugs Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:36 pm

Listen the NAM did not even sample the fn cofluen e after hr 48 for God's sake . IF this piece of crap model ever verified then we have a historic ice frigging storm and milions lose power. 00z runs 6z runs and 12 z guys

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:37 pm

Northern stream energy looks slightly weaker than 12z though 18

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:39 pm

At hour 27 heights looK a little higher along the EC compared to 18z gfs

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:40 pm

Heights may be slightly higher ahead of the southern stream energy. OR it may just be faster in shifting the ridge eastward. Kind of hard for me to tell.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by RJB8525 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:42 pm

Just wanna throw this in. Mr.G and Gregory don't think ice at all so far
RJB8525
RJB8525
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1994
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 38
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:42 pm

Although that could be, Frank, I think this will end up with about the same track because the ridge looks like it is collapsing a little sooner than 12z. Thoughts?

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:42 pm

Confluent low looks further south though

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:43 pm

amugs wrote:Listen the NAM did not even sample the fn cofluen e after hr 48 for God's sake . IF this piece of crap model ever verified then we have a historic ice frigging storm and milions lose power. 00z runs 6z runs and 12 z guys

NAM nailed one of the storms last year from its LR, even its long range extention DGEX had it, I believe it was Feb 3rd which was one of these east to west storms, im just saying it has its moments and flops like every model (admittedly flops more) but you cant 100% dismiss it every single run...


Last edited by NjWeatherGuy on Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Confluent low looks further south though

That's good....stronger synoptic forcing via jet entrance region Very Happy

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:44 pm

rb924119 wrote:Although that could be, Frank, I think this will end up with about the same track because the ridge looks like it is collapsing a little sooner than 12z. Thoughts?

Ridge definitely collapsing quicker

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:44 pm

Heights are definitely higher though for the east through 52, but not by too much.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:45 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Although that could be, Frank, I think this will end up with about the same track because the ridge looks like it is collapsing a little sooner than 12z. Thoughts?

Ridge definitely collapsing quicker

I think that will be our saving grace from a cutter here.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:47 pm

Surface low is about 100 miles north of 12z but boy is this thing juicy.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by aiannone Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:48 pm

Looks like there will be mixing issues for the NYC metro on the 0z GFS

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 12 Empty Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 12 of 17 Previous  1 ... 7 ... 11, 12, 13 ... 17  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum