Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:47 pm

Surface low is about 100 miles north of 12z but boy is this thing juicy.

by **aiannone** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:48 pm

Looks like there will be mixing issues for the NYC metro on the 0z GFS

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:48 pm

by **amugs** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:49 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:49 pm

996 mb already

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 13 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

Ice involved

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:50 pm

Damn it..........

by **amugs** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:51 pm

Holy crap nnj and lhv get whacked

by **aiannone** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:51 pm

Ice storm for NYC. Rain south of there into CNJ south

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:51 pm

North of NYC gets rocked

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:52 pm

Cant catch a break here can I...

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:52 pm

4-8 inches of snow for NYC with ice. Godzilla north of there. 3-6 inches CNJ and ice. Rain SNJ

by **amugs** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:53 pm

Historic ice storm for nyc in the making

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:53 pm

Hey Frank, you wanna see a textbook example of isentropic lift? Look at that for hour 60 when the data becomes available lmfao

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:53 pm

Nyc was all frozen that run, no rain. Careful of snow maps that count ice as snow.

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:54 pm

Here's the snow map based on a 10:1. If somebody could post the H-D version that'd be great. Thanks!!

http://www.earthsat.com/misc/newmod/getMap.php?model=GFS_op&run=00&area=US&vars=SF&hour=0072
http://www.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/00/snosums/0024/GFS_00_opUS_SF_0072.png

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:56 pm

Really hope this ice storm doesn't come to fruition.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:57 pm

amugs wrote:Historic ice storm for nyc in the making

Unless trend continues to NAM or UKIE solution we could just be in snow to plain rain, or hopefully the damn thing goes back south so we can get just snow.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:58 pm

No way anyone north of NYC is getting rain this storm. CNJ to SNJ yes, but even they'll see snow. I need to look at sounding .

by **jimv45** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:59 pm

I can't see the map how does mid hudson valley do having party. what time does it start.

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:No way anyone north of NYC is getting rain this storm. CNJ to SNJ yes, but even they'll see snow. I need to look at sounding .

They will if it keeps trending north....

by **algae888** Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:00 pm

that was a great run for me and jman 850's stay just south of us. we shoud get some intense snow rates as we will be very close to the r/s line. still to close for comfort. will prob change several more times until models lock in a solution

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:00 pm

jimv45 wrote:I can't see the map how does mid hudson valley do having party. what time does it start.

Probably 6-10 based on 10:1 ratio. With ratios, somewhere around a foot, probably.

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:01 pm

algae888 wrote:that was a great run for me and jman 850's stay just south of us. we shoud get some intense snow rates as we will be very close to the r/s line. still to close for comfort. will prob change several more times until models lock in a solution

Heck yeah, Al, me too hahah I am just getting a little concerned. I don't like having to worry about the proximity of the elevated warm nose ahahaha

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:02 pm

Frank change the friggin title of this thread lol, its bad luck.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:02 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:No way anyone north of NYC is getting rain this storm. CNJ to SNJ yes, but even they'll see snow. I need to look at sounding .

They will if it keeps trending north....

It's not possible with that type of confluence and Greenland block. No way.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:04 pm

by **oldtimer** Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:06 pm

Lee got changes coming up New map totals

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