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Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:34 pm

0z CMC went way north
Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 15 Can_ap10
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:36 pm

I'm mobile tonight but that looks warm

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:36 pm

GEM should be out soon; no?

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:38 pm

Never mind ahaha Based on thicknesses for areas south and east of that 540 line, it certainly does.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:38 pm

Do you have the frame before that?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:41 pm

Friend texted me saying cooler than GFS

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:42 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Do you have the frame before that?

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 15 Can_ap11
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:42 pm

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 15 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:43 pm

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 15 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66

It transfers energy.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Friend texted me saying cooler than GFS

Dynamical component, maybe? And the UKMET is coming out; holds its serve of a much more amplified system- 989hPa low over northeastern OH with H5 closing off at 72 over us. Looks like it's trying a Miller-B, but the time resolution is too low to say that definitively. Awaiting the rest of the information.


Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:45 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:44 pm

CMC total snowfall with ratios. So now NAM, GFS, and CMC are on board for 6-8" here. Just when i thought we would be sunny here lol
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:45 pm

hearing cmc hammers nyc with snow just a very brief mix
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:45 pm

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 15 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f69

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:46 pm

GGEM is 10 inches for NYC with maybe a small period of mixing.

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:46 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Friend texted me saying cooler than GFS

Dynamical component, maybe? And the UKMET is coming out; holds its serve of a much more amplified system- 989hPa low over northeastern OH with H5 closing off at 72 over us. Looks like it's trying a Miller-B, but the time resolution is too low to say that definitively. Awaiting the rest of the information.

Dynamic cooling wouldn't help much in this situation. Surface temps are not as much the issue as mid-levels and upper-levels. Dynamic cooling helps surface temps, not mid-levels, so this would translate to an ice scenario in the NYC Metro if 850's and 925' go above freezing.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:46 pm

@aiannone wrote:CMC total snowfall with ratios. So now NAM, GFS, and CMC are on board for 6-8" here. Just when i thought we would be sunny here lol
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GOOD LORD ALMIGHTY!!! Where's the dotted line?!! I'll sign in blood if needed lmfao

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:48 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Friend texted me saying cooler than GFS

Dynamical component, maybe? And the UKMET is coming out; holds its serve of a much more amplified system- 989hPa low over northeastern OH with H5 closing off at 72 over us. Looks like it's trying a Miller-B, but the time resolution is too low to say that definitively. Awaiting the rest of the information.

Dynamic cooling wouldn't help much in this situation. Surface temps are not as much the issue as mid-levels and upper-levels. Dynamic cooling helps surface temps, not mid-levels, so this would translate to an ice scenario in the NYC Metro if 850's and 925' go above freezing.

You're totally right. I'm just an idiot lmao I've had a longggggg day ahaha Thanks for stating that, though. You caught my mistake that I never would have.

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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:49 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:GGEM is 10 inches for NYC with maybe a small period of mixing.  
frank cmc snow map is 12-18" for nyc.not sure if that is adding in fz rain and sleet


Last edited by algae888 on Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:49 pm

Thanks for posting all of these maps, by the way, guys; really helps out.

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Post by WeatherBob Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:50 pm

If you look at the GFS, it is trying to do the same thing. It is not very pronounced but it is hinting at it. This could be a sign of the thermal profile changing from a more flat east to west orientation to a more "bumpy" profile due to the low re-development. Have to wait and see two more runs.
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:50 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Friend texted me saying cooler than GFS

Dynamical component, maybe? And the UKMET is coming out; holds its serve of a much more amplified system- 989hPa low over northeastern OH with H5 closing off at 72 over us. Looks like it's trying a Miller-B, but the time resolution is too low to say that definitively. Awaiting the rest of the information.

Dynamic cooling wouldn't help much in this situation. Surface temps are not as much the issue as mid-levels and upper-levels. Dynamic cooling helps surface temps, not mid-levels, so this would translate to an ice scenario in the NYC Metro if 850's and 925' go above freezing.

You're totally right. I'm just an idiot lmao I've had a longggggg day ahaha Thanks for stating that, though. You caught my mistake that I never would have.

No problem lol!
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:51 pm

From what I can tell so far, which is purely based on thicknesses at the moment, the UKMET looks to go to rain or a mix all the way to or damn near Albany, NY. I'm awaiting more data, though.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:52 pm

Regardless, it absolutely dumps whatever precipitation it is creating lol

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:53 pm

@rb924119 wrote:From what I can tell so far, which is purely based on thicknesses at the moment, the UKMET looks to go to rain or a mix all the way to or damn near Albany, NY. I'm awaiting more data, though.

UKMET is north, so warm for coastal areas....
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:55 pm

Like I said-DUMPS lmao:

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

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