Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

Nothing is easy this year. might not know again until this storm is close.

00z gefs are a nice hit. .75 qpf. 00z ukie is very amplified. Might bring rain to the area. Model spread everywhere. Leaning in gfs and gefs for now.

Frank How can ukie bring rain to the area? I thought it was passing south on purple That would eat up the artic front It will be coast hugger then?? Thanks Paisan

EURO goes KAPOWWW.

8-12"+ from CNJ/E. PA thru NYC metro into CT.

biggest hit so far but were still 2 days away

Can't remember the last time the Euro and GFS agreed!

Still gonna wait till after tomorrow 0z.

If this storm happens and track is right I could get my seasonal avg . with more to possibly come later next week

Accuweather has me po. 6 to 10 Sunday to Monday wow

Euro snow map with ratios. About a foot.

Model update.  Starting with the ensembles:

Looks like GEFS and EPS are in agreement with a LP track exiting the coast somewhere between the Delmarva and the S NJ
6z and 00z GEFS from last night shifted N about 100miles when compared to the 12z and 18z runs yestrday to look like this:


Euro Ens looks like this (M is for mean):
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The CMC ens mean is just south of the Delmarva but N of its operational


Moving to the operationals the GFS 6z and 00z agree with the ensemble means and have the LP coming off the coast approx. between the demarva and S NJ.  Currently the GFS is on he N side of that zone, a tick N when compared to its 12z and 18z runs from yesterday.  
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Euro op in pretty close agreement; only a few miles south of GFS:
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CMC Op is the southern Outlier for now coming off the Va/Cape Hat coast barely scarping us with precip:
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So as of this morning the GFS op/Euro op/GEFS/EPS blend would take the track somewhere off the coast between the Delmarva and the S NJ coast.  This would end up being a SECs to MECs potential here for most of us.  The CMC is kind of like that crazy aunt or uncle we all have.  off on its own talking jibberish.  The problem with that is every now and then it speaks the truth and if your not paying attention you miss what it has to say, so I am not discounting the further south track at all at this time.  It has been pointed out overnight that much of the energy has not even made it to the western shores yet therefore its sampling is suspect.  

I am not going to comment on precip amounts as of yet, except to say that the blend of the models I have listed above brings anywhere from 0.5-1.5" of QPF to our general coverage area from north to south.   I will not comment further on that because minor adjustments to the track could have big changes to totals.  One of the biggest challenges with this forecast is going to be determining ratios (because they will change N to S,  how much WAA comes into play, esp for stay Staten Island, S shore of LI to central NJ and points south, and how much virga along the northern fringes of the precip shield plays a role as dew points are forecasted to be extremely low in these areas.  This will all be dictated by track and intensity of the system which is not quite nailed down yet.  I think by tomorrow morning I will put out a first call snow map for the area.  I am about 75% on board with at least a SECS area wide At this time.

I need it south a little for bigsnow

skinsfan1177 wrote:I need it south a little for bigsnow

Please keep those thoughts to yourself. It's just fine as projected, but we both know it will change before Monday.

Cp know offense I just want the snow like you I hope everyone gets in it

skinsfan1177 wrote:Cp know offense I just want the snow like you I hope everyone gets in it

I hear ya skins.

It's hard to get a snow in our area, 75 mile radius from CPK, that someone doesn't feel left out. I'm hoping Monday is one of those rarities.

CP This storm will be 75 mile radius centered on Orange County lol

Euro was awesome, GFS was pretty good too, not far off as stated. Frank that eurowx.com map, is that a free or pay site? I like that because it seems only place u can get snow totals with ratios. Accuwx is calling for 6-10 which is a lot of them 2+ days in advance.

jmanley32 wrote:Euro was awesome, GFS was pretty good too, not far off as stated.  Frank that eurowx.com map, is that a free or pay site? I like that because it seems only place u can get snow totals with ratios.  Accuwx is calling for 6-10 which is a lot of them 2+ days in advance.  

you can get a "free 7 day trial"

jmanley32 wrote:Euro was awesome, GFS was pretty good too, not far off as stated.  Frank that eurowx.com map, is that a free or pay site? I like that because it seems only place u can get snow totals with ratios.  Accuwx is calling for 6-10 which is a lot of them 2+ days in advance.  

Fingers and toes crossed

oldtimer wrote:CP   This storm will be 75 mile radius centered on Orange County   lol

Old Timer, what was your final tally from the blizzard?

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Still gonna wait till after tomorrow 0z.

Thanks to "Nemo" i can't buy into all the hype yet..but everything looks good..

P.S guys TWC is worried Boston will get more snow

U mean juno? Nemo was epic.

Almost 3 days out trends do look good.  Not getting too excited but......with lows forecast in the low to mid teens Sunday night and highs Monday in the mid to upper teens IF the storm does not get suppressed because of the super cold air our ratios would be approaching 20:1 at the forecast temps.  With an average according to Sroc of near .75 to 1.00 QPF do the math!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CP I got 16" But what impressive to me was the wind and the drifts Now on the south shore Islip official total was 22" Good Luck to you on this one!!

FWIW SREFs came further north again

I'm getting a little concerned at this consistent north trend......if it continues, guess what; we're all in trouble. Somewhat comforting to know that they are not in their optimal range yet, but if we see it from the globals today I'll start fretting.